Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Brownie3
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Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:08 am

Thoughts...

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Re: Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby TeddyT » Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:32 pm

The early favourites for this race are (current best price in brackets):

Romain De Senam (10/1) trained by Paul Nicholls
Has only won one race over fences and that was at 1/20! Has been given a rating of 137, 1lb higher than when 2nd in last year's Fred Winter. Nicholls has been running this horse at the minimum distance so presumably the market confidence is based on the thought that he will improve for the step up in trip.
Also entered in the Grand Annual.

Foxtail Hill (12/1) Nigel Twiston-Davies
Has lots of experience (8 races over fences) compared to the usual type of novice who runs in this race. He beat the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Tenor Nivernais when taking a 34k handicap chase at Cheltenham back in January. Has been raised 7lb for that win so would just scrape into this race if he lines up as he now has a rating of 140.
Also has an entry in the Festival Plate.

Itsafreebee (14/1) Dan Skelton
Beat former Stayers Hurdle winner Cole Harden in a novice chase at Wetherby back in December but subsequently disappointed twice at Haydock and Southwell. Both of those defeats were on soft ground so connections would appear to be hoping for decent ground at Cheltenham.
Also entered in the Martin Pipe.

Squouateur (16/1) Gordon Elliott
Half brother to fair chaser Samingarry and a three time winner over hurdles. Failed to show much on his first four races over fences but then finished just over four lengths second in a handicap at Naas. Raced from 130 that day so may struggle to make the final field at Cheltenham.
Also entered in the Kim Muir.

Two Taffs (16/1) Dan Skelton
Still a maiden over fences including when getting turned over at 1/6 in a novice chase at Catterick where he was very keen early on. Seems a big ask to turn that effort into winning at the Festival.
No other Festival entries.

Blazer (16/1) Willie Mullins
This doesn't tend to be a race that the Mullins' yard target too often with just two runners in the last ten years. This horse finished fourth in last year's Coral Cup and, given his connections, will be sure to generate market support if he lines up in the race. He was disappointing on his second run over fences so needs to put that poor run behind him.
Also has two other entries at the Festival.

Brother Tedd (16/1) Philip Hobbs
Currently rated 13lb lower over fences than hurdles so potentially very well handicapped. He does, however, still have to prove that he is definitely suited by Cheltenham and has done all his winning on right-handed tracks.
No other Festival entries.

It's currently 20/1 bar the above. Do any of our members have a strong fancy yet for this tricky race?
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Re: Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Micko70 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:07 am

2 very strong trends in the race.

All of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more and all of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts.

You can check out a few trends by clicking HERE

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Re: Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Shrews » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:32 am

Kilcrea Vale for Nicky Henderson looks good value at 20's at Ladbrokes or 16/1 NRNB with Paddy Power. He's also entered in the JLT Novices but I think he's more likely to go for this.

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Re: Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:27 pm

9 horses pass the trends at the 5 day stage

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412347

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Re: Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby beepee1984 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:11 pm

Tricky Novice Chase where Nicky Hendersons Hammersly Lake stands out to me. Consistent chasing form in Novice class including a 2nd in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham and nothing to suggest he is a worse chaser than hurdle, but yet the handicap has dropped his ratings for chasing. Finished 6th and 2nd at the festival which means he gets the track and has a good Each Way value.
Dan Skelton has 2 of the 3 favs and Its’afreebee is the choice of son Harry and 139 seems a very lenient mark for last years Neptune 3rd.
2 Pt EW Hammersley Lake 16/1 Betway
1Pt EW Its’afreebee 10/1 Coral

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