Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

champion7
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby champion7 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:46 am

if moon racer lines up here he will go off at 8/1 or thereabouts, think hed have a good chance at making the first 3 so Each Way at 33/1 or your money back looks a good deal. If yanworth is a 4/1 shot and this horse smashed that bunny rabbit to pieces then id have to see moon racer (3/3 over cd) as a bit of a value selection, leicester I advise you to take 33/1 Each Way NRNB Thank me later or your money back

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby titans choice » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:14 pm

I think we should all stick to discussing the racing and not each others names and plans for horses can sometimes change but I think David Pipe said Moon Racer would be sticking to the Supreme novice chase 2 days ago but that does not mean they won't change their mind and it might run in this.But Moon Racer has a very good record at Cheltenham with 3 wins from 3 runs but it has not had a run since November.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby DannyCraig » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:45 pm

Are we to presume that Gordon Elliott will still send Apples Jade to the Mares Hurdle rather than this race, even if the 2 main protagonists in Annie Power & Faugheen are Non-runners?
Maybe I'm mistaken but will he forego having a runner with a reasonable chance in the Champion to have the favourite of a much inferior race?

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:51 pm

I think his comment was typical of forum debate but not childish.

It's typical of inferior forum debate in my opinion. I thought OLBG discouraged that sort of nonsense. That is part of the reason I write here, rather than elsewhere.

For me, having a go at other people's selections is a no go area. It can lead to tit-for-tat behaviour that lowers the tone of a forum and discourages new posters.

I am here to give my honest opinion on a horse's prospects, nothing more than that, I even acknowledged that there is no harm with the NRNB guarantee in place. It is astonishing to think that umbrage could be taken at that but that is very much what seems to have happened.

For the record, I was with Moon Racer from the moment I saw him score at 50/1 on his debut. I must have watched the race a dozen times to see if there was any fluke about it and there was not. I backed him ante-post for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper at 12/1 and he was an easy winner.

It's all about Moon Racer's Hurdle form for me and it just isn't stacking up at the level I expected. I am not alone in the feeling either. Ballyandy runs in the Betfair and is largely favourite now but his form isn't really that strong, hence the handicap rating he goes into the Betfair from. Twiston-Davies is having a good time of it this year and perhaps Ballyandy will improve on Saturday but the form took another little knock when the horse who beat Ballyandy last time was turned over at odds-on today. I actually backed the winner there, as Keepers Hill was a horse I put up last time here, and at today's weights the two horses were identical on ratings, yet one was five times the price of the other. Probably the most disappointing horse in the Moon Racer form has been Mirsaale, who was second to Moon Racer when the Pipe horse was last seen. He was ahead of Ballyandy in third that day and was a 136 rated hurdler at the time. Subsequent poor efforts saw Mirsaale dropped to 134 and an 18 length 4th place last Saturday has seen the handicapper drop the horse to 132 now. As always, I tend to disagree with some people in scenario's like this, because some seem to have faith that the horse used as the yardstick ran to its mark when involved with a horse they fancy, when, my approach is to question that, if a horse has run three times since and been downrated twice, then how do we know it didn't just run to the lower rated form when it faced, in this instance, Moon Racer?

It's an open Champion Hurdle for sure but I just feel Moon Racer needs to put a stone and a half better performance in to win a Champion Hurdle. He's had a setback before and he's running out of time a bit for a prep race for Cheltenham. That is another trend to worry about, along with already mentioned ones.

If he were my horse I would stick to Novice company this year but if he does go to the Supreme, I will take him on for the reasons already given.

Good luck to anyone who has backed him, I'll be one of the first to post a big thumbs up if he can pull it off. :win:
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby champion7 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:33 pm

if usernames are to be lived up to, a bigot is defined as 'someone with strong unreasonable beliefs'...

That doesn't make any sense. Your username is boastful. Mine would be self deprecating if it was literal, rather than, as it is, a play on Lester Piggott.
I am not the champion, 7 is. my username is a prompt for me to remember my password, i had not planned on becoming a regular poster some six years later as part of an evil masterplan,an egotistical flight of fancy, but i did remember my password, enough about the usernames..

If you can tell me why my selection wont win, then the same should apply in reverse. Its not childish its very pertinent to this specific discussion. You made a topic called How smart is the average punter in which you stated that smart punters were people who backed faugheen for this race at 6/4 ( or similar) . How much would you have to have on at that price to make the antepost punt worthwhile several months out. A considerable amount.

Yet you want all of that brushed under the carpet while you outline reasons why my 33/1 selection wont win the race, I am simply pointing out that my bet is not already a losing bet, whereas yours is, and you are crying foul. Good one. This is an actual smart bet - you get your money back for some spending money for day two of the festival if he doesnt run and if he does run, hes sure to go off much shorter than the current 33/1, and depending who else lines up, may well have a live chance in a year without clear champions. hes beat everything they put in front of him at cheltenham, he cant do any more than that as he is a finisher. Its not the horses fault pipe thinks hes too precious to run him anywhere else.

I think youre upset with me for breaking the news that faugheen wasnt lining up for the festival, dont shoot the messenger.. The aim of this forum is that we the punters collaborate to beat the bookies, so our differences should be set aside to achieve that goal, and any further discussion of our personal feud - if theres one to be had, should take place via private message. I think quality control for the forum is important, thats what makes it a useful resource, and I think you make many useful and informative posts, and are a great asset to the forum, but you dropped a clanger on that one and like it or not, you have to accept that was not being a smart punter, and if youre going to make posts calling out others for not being smart that does leave you open to the same scrutiny on the very same subject while you are trying to pick apart an actual smart bet in the very same race im afraid.

Let me make it clear - im not advising that this moon racer is a good thing, and everyone should run out and smash into the racer, but now is the time with upheaval in the markets to identify runners in a number of festival races who may run at much shorter prices should fields become depleted and horses take up different engagements, ( eg horses where the market leaders may end up in this race also) and this horse falls into the category of horses worth having a speculative wager on in those circumstance, with the NRNB offer that is now in play as a must of course. Weird to oppose the 33/1 NRNB suggestion so vocally given the fate of your 6/4 shot.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby tomdouglas » Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:39 am

Always time for an "IF", and if Douvan were from different connections he would surely be considered for the "Champion" double, so nearly pulled off by the amazing Flyingbolt all those years ago.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Sticky99 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:43 am

Still yet to hear any plans for Yorkhill. Thought I read he was pulled from an intended chase run at the weekend. If they go down the Champion Hurdle route surely they would want a prep run first, perhaps before even stumping up the supplementary fee, to see how he performs. He's not particularly strong on the exchanges and the prices indicate VVM goes for the OLBG mares.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:46 pm

Willie has confirmed that its most unlikely he will supplement Yorkhill for Champion.

Its his novice year and he will be running in either of the Novice chases!

Reported in Irish Times

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Sticky99 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:25 pm

Willie has confirmed that its most unlikely he will supplement Yorkhill for Champion.

Its his novice year and he will be running in either of the Novice chases!

Reported in Irish Times
He probably had more chance of winning the Champion Hurdle than the Arkle! Must be going for the JLT.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:54 pm

Yanworth has no chance in this.

Mick Fitzgerald was trying to make out he's still a player and his co-commentator even had the neck to ask if he had shortened for the Champion Hurdle.

The horse isn't fast enough and that was a poor field he faced today, hence the odds of 2/5.

I wouldn't take 10/1 on Yanworth.
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:02 pm

Bet Victor pushed Yanworth out to 7/1. Hurrah, a Bookmaker with some cojones at last :D
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:13 pm

Yanworth didn't impress me for him to be competitive at 2m I think he needs a bigger field for a true pace and to jump better. The former might happen, the latter is on him.

Jezki done by Tombstone over in Ireland might see him pushed towards the stayers event now.

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