Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:33 pm

Yanworth didn't impress me for him to be competitive at 2m I think he needs a bigger field for a true pace and to jump better. The former might happen, the latter is on him.

Jezki done by Tombstone over in Ireland might see him pushed towards the stayers event now.
I think Jezki is past his best by quite a way. Ridiculous to have seen him 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He had every chance of a bounce and I wouldn't back him for anything at Cheltenham.

I've been with Brain Power at 12/1, 10/1 several times and have been topping up at 15/2. I won't back anything else and it's Vegas or Bust for me here. Maybe he won't be good enough but there has been so much bad value in the race and he's one of the few who looks to be improving and likely to be suited by decent ground.

Yanworth's best run remains the Christmas Hurdle and it looks flimsy to me.
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:09 pm

With Yanworth it feels a bit like The New One in that maybe there just isn't the right race for him at the festival and 2 and half mile race at Aintree is probably right up his street.

I think they'll stick with the Champion hurdle though and hope they get a pace to aim at and he can jump better but I wasn't a backer before and I'm not now even with a better price.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby meoldmate » Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:53 pm

A month away and this exciting race has seen top players come and go in the market with injuries appearing.

I have read through this thread and plenty of good views being placed over and champion7 hit on MOON RACER at 40/1 early on, which if he played, could be a really great price to have in your back pocket.
Leicester Piglet has highlighted Moon Racer with several views of his chances being limited.

I feel their is case to be made with David Pipe eight year old, someone mentioned that this race has never been won by a champion bumper winner, which I was surprised to read.
I like champion bumper form and 2015 race has form which could be leading to winners to come just like when Champagne Fever won back in 2012, which has been lucrative race to follow.

What has MOON RACER done since winning this bumper, raced four times and won three and came a very close second in the other.
He has raced at Cheltenham three times and won each occasion, which is a big plus and he has a good turn of foot to come up the hill with and is a well balanced horse that can handle the undulations of this track, as he has shown already.

Lets look at the bumper form from 2015

2nd MODUS franked the form numerous times, fair enough he has been beaten 13 lengths by Brian Power.
3rd WAIT FOR ME did frank the form with two wins after this race but has not won since and was well behind Ballyandy at Newbury last time out.
4th YANWORTH has shined and well fancied for the champion hurdle but I like what was mentioned on ITV4 racing programme, he hurdles slowly and this could cost him lengths here, he has given MOON RACER plenty of good vibes.
5th VIGIL lightly raced and was well behind Yorkhill at Cheltenham last year in the Neptune.
6th SUPASUNDAE has won after this race and did beat Silver Concorde at Leopardstown and won at Punchestown over twenty furlongs
7th THEO'S CHARM has finished in second place over fences and did win a couple of low key affairs after this bumper race and Nick Gifford limits his runners.
8th MONTANA BELLE a mare that has not been progressive.
9th BAY OF FREEDOM now goes chasing and won a listed race at Wexford, looks a run of the mill runner.
10th BELLSHILL been winning and a progressive sort and won seven times.
11th GENERAL PRINCIPLE has been second numerous times and now chasing.
12th GHOST RIVER nothing special
13th AU QUART DE TOUR lightly raced and won a maiden, unknown on potential.
14th DAVY DOUBT ran the once and not been seen when down the field at Aintree.
15th LIVELOVELAUGH won his last run at Thurles a novice hurdle, nothing special.
16th O O SEVEN been progressive and now looking to be a progressive chaser.
17th ALWAYS LION lightly raced and nothing to indicate potential.
18th UP FOR REVIEW like most Mullins horse they win and this back marker has given the bumper form a real boost.
19th STONE HARD, 20th WESTERN WAY, 21st JETSTREAM JACK, 22nd NEATLY PUT have not shined.

The race has given potential for MOON RACER to be a danger and David Pipe runners are now coming to hand with winners and this one could give his 14/1 price tag a big shout.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:54 pm

On the exchanges you can get 40+ for Moon Racer but obviously there is no NRNB and it's a win only price. I still think he's Supreme bound but I'd maybe seeing that Yanworth doesn't look quite the real deal over 2m might just have the Pipe team and owners thinking about going for the bigger prize. You can get 20's with Betway and Betfred NRNB for this race.

I genuinely don't have too stong a feeling about the race at present which says more about who isn't running than who is. I've taken a NRNB shot on Apple's Jade but I doubt she comes here. A shot to nothing though.

You can pick holes in every horse in the race and it's going to be unusual seeing Willie Mullins not armed with a top contender but we have touched on Wicklow Brave already and I wonder if Footpad could be coming here. He's held on most form, especially by Petit Mouchoir but he would be one to consider if the rain really came as he's performed well on soft/heavy.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Shrews » Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:55 pm


The race has given potential for MOON RACER to be a danger and David Pipe runners are now coming to hand with winners and this one could give his 14/1 price tag a big shout.
The Pipe stable hasn't had a top 5 place in this for at least 7 years and that's simply because they've had no runner in the race. Martin Pipe won it twice with Granville Again and Make It Stand but that was hardly prolific stuff given his dominance over that decade. It doesn't appear they target the race as one they can potentially win and for me this horse would need to be a superstar to overcome those stats.

Even in The Supreme it's a similar story

2016 - no runner
2015 - no runner
2014 - The Liquidator (11th)
2013 - no runner
2012 - Catch Tammy (18th)
2011 - no runner
2010 - Dan Breem (12th), Dream Esteem (13th)

Therefore I'd be happy to oppose Moon Racer in either The Supreme or The Champion Hurdle.

The value remains with My Tent Or Yours who is sure to be primed for the day, loves the festival, returned after nearly two years out last year to finish 2nd to Annie Power who broke the course record, giving her 7lb. That was a remarkable effort, and this year he has some runs under his belt which will ensure he's much sharper for a stable prolific in this race and a one race target for the horse.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Robmull » Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:33 pm

Plenty of interesting discussion on this thread since I last posted a couple of weeks ago.

Now that all of the major trial races have been run, I have updated my trends based blog and have identified 3 entries that have met all the key race trends, albeit I can't help but feel that this is such an open renewal that it could be won by a real surprise package this year.

Stan James Champion Hurdle Key Race Trends – 14 March 2017 – Updated on 20 February 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412164

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:25 pm

I don't think Moon Racer will run in this race.

No Cheltenham Bumper winner has ever won the Champion Hurdle.

The horse has not run this year.

The Pipe team had a winner on Friday and one on Saturday but they have also had several pulled up and beaten miles in the past week, so it's jumping the gun a bit to assume they are in the zone again.

This Champion Hurdle is open but I just don't think Moon Racer will run and even if he does, I don't feel he's a lock to get placed with so much uncertainty currently regarding who will actually turn up. The Mullins hand is yet to be defined, the race may cut up but there are only three places up for grabs and it seems a bit of an assumption that Moon Racer goes to the Champion Hurdle, when his old foes Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes seem likely to go to The Supreme Novices. It is not as if Moon Racer proved in a different league to them.

Moon Racer has been pushed up to 148 on official ratings now but he needs to find another stone to get competitive in a Champion Hurdle. Is that possible? Yes, is it guaranteed? No. A lot of confidence seems to be coming from the Betfair Hurdle, where Ballyandy was well handicapped on the day.

In my view Moon Racer has a good number of negative trends to overcome and it seems logical to stay in Novice Company, even in a weakish looking renewal of the Champion Hurdle. Should he win the Supreme Novices, the chances are that next year's Champion Hurdle will not be much stronger, with injury prone horses getting older and some starting to look past their sell-by date.

It's all about choices and I chose not to go with Moon Racer for the Champion Hurdle. The best of luck to those who have, for it's the people who have been backing at shorter odds on horses with less chance than their price is suggesting who are going to be the most disappointed I feel.
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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Feb 20, 2017 8:57 pm

Superb Story won't be running, injured and out until later this year according to his trainer on Twitter.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby meoldmate » Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:53 pm

Leicester Bigot David Pipe or shall I say the Pipes have not won this race for a long time due to what has been highlighted but MOON RACER maybe a stone under but he is a progressive sort and all youngsters have to start somewhere.
Us punters go looking for winners and we have to rely on connections going the right way for their horses as they are running them for themselves and not for our benefit, with around a month to go, speculation is we can play at.
At this present stage their are twenty one runners in the betting that is working down to 66/1 chance Mister Mlyagi.
We have to see what goes where and if you are stating he has not got a dog chance of winning then Yanworth has to improve greatly as MOON RACER did beat him in the Champion Bumper and he was held in fourth.
The 14/1 looks good and even though the Pipe team has been quiet for most of the season, this is the thought of my best mate jammat001 who is fairly knowledgeable on horse racing, so I know where you are coming from, the stable are starting to fire and may not with all but some are coming to the fore and MOON RACER could been looked after for a tilt at this race, which is not the strongest of races going to post, on paper but a champion will appear and I am hoping this young horse will answer the call.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Pisto1 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:34 pm

Chtibello also likely to miss the race due to soft palate operation being done according to sporting life report.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Piggybacker » Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:30 pm

Leicester Bigot David Pipe or shall I say the Pipes have not won this race for a long time due to what has been highlighted but MOON RACER maybe a stone under but he is a progressive sort and all youngsters have to start somewhere.
Us punters go looking for winners and we have to rely on connections going the right way for their horses as they are running them for themselves and not for our benefit, with around a month to go, speculation is we can play at.
At this present stage their are twenty one runners in the betting that is working down to 66/1 chance Mister Mlyagi.
We have to see what goes where and if you are stating he has not got a dog chance of winning then Yanworth has to improve greatly as MOON RACER did beat him in the Champion Bumper and he was held in fourth.
The 14/1 looks good and even though the Pipe team has been quiet for most of the season, this is the thought of my best mate jammat001 who is fairly knowledgeable on horse racing, so I know where you are coming from, the stable are starting to fire and may not with all but some are coming to the fore and MOON RACER could been looked after for a tilt at this race, which is not the strongest of races going to post, on paper but a champion will appear and I am hoping this young horse will answer the call.
Amen, bro.
Moon racer, Champion Hurdle; Charli Parcs, Supreme; Defi du Seuil, Triumph ew.
That could like a fantastic bet NRNB after the festival.

I like Buveur D'air, here too. But Moon racer has to rate as an unknown quantity as another option at a big price.

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Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Robmull » Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:57 pm

With all the recent discussion regarding the chance of MOON RACER running in this race rather than the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, I have taken the opportunity to score him against my key race trends and have recorded the result, together with my thoughts on his chances in the comments section of the blog (see link below).

Stan James Champion Hurdle Key Race Trends – 14 March 2017 – Updated on 20 February 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412164

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