Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2609
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:26 pm

Surely means VVM doesn't run in the Mares

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3708
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:37 pm

Another refund bet! Oh well was worth the shot to try and get the price. Have already been refunded by my bookie for Limini and Apple's Jade. As much as I love Vroum Vroum Mag I think this is too sharp a trip for here. I'll have to re-take stock on this race, I keep jinxing anything I like into being a non runner so far!

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2234
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Robmull » Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:02 pm

I agree regarding Vroum Vroum Mag Gman, although she is 1 of 3 entries that has met all the key race trends in my latest blog update (see link below), I can't believe that she will be suited by the trip over the speedier Old Course.

I have therefore backed one of the remaining 2 qualifiers on a NRNB basis.

Stan James Champion Hurdle Key Race Trends – 14 March 2017 – Updated on 8 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412164

jackh1092
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 234
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby jackh1092 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:17 pm

7 / 2 Yanworth
9 / 2 VVM
9 / 2 BDA
6 / 1 Petit Mouchoir
10 / 1 Brain Power
12 / 1 Moon Racer
14 1 Footpad
16 / 1 Sceau Royal
16 / 1 MTOY
20 / 1 TNO
33 / 1 Cyrus Darius
40 / 1 Wicklow Brave


This is how i priced up the race...what do people think? VVM was a difficult one to price up when i did this (day limini wasn't declared).

I have taken her as a likely runner here for obvious reasons and priced accordingly. Will have Ruby on board which is an obvious positive. Now, Mouchoir wont let her run from the front freely, but i'd fancy her to stay/power up the hill better at the finish.

Yanworth is the solid one, even with jumping issues- if he doesn't make a mess of too many, he and BDA could well pick up the pieces from VVM/PM late on. My main reason for not putting BDA shorter than VVM is that Vroum is tough and more experienced. BDA hasn't been campaigned for this and soft ground could be very important to him.

Anything interesting here?

I would like to know peoples views on the price of vvm and what they think she would be on the day ??
Love horse racing
Loving OLBG only joined 12/1/15
Twitter @jackh1092

Shrews
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1793
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Shrews » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:15 am

I'm happy with my prices on Wicklow Brave and MTOY and think they both have excellent chances. These are just re-iterating my comments earlier in the thread really, but I'm happy both are still entered at this stage.

MTOY: 2nd last year after two years out, beaten only by Annie Power who received 7lb and broke the course record. Loves the festival and any runs so far this year are just fitness prep runs for this. Sure to be spot on and WINS.

Wicklow Brave: Improved on the flat last year to win a Group 1. With that in mind, he has probably improved in this sphere too and that could well mean he's improved to a level beyond his 8l win in the County Hurdle in 2015. Anything faster than good to soft however is going in a negative direction. PLACES

Derbz87
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:00 am
Location: Devon

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Derbz87 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:06 pm

7 / 2 Yanworth
9 / 2 VVM
9 / 2 BDA
6 / 1 Petit Mouchoir
10 / 1 Brain Power
12 / 1 Moon Racer
14 1 Footpad
16 / 1 Sceau Royal
16 / 1 MTOY
20 / 1 TNO
33 / 1 Cyrus Darius
40 / 1 Wicklow Brave


This is how i priced up the race...what do people think? VVM was a difficult one to price up when i did this (day limini wasn't declared).

I have taken her as a likely runner here for obvious reasons and priced accordingly. Will have Ruby on board which is an obvious positive. Now, Mouchoir wont let her run from the front freely, but i'd fancy her to stay/power up the hill better at the finish.

Yanworth is the solid one, even with jumping issues- if he doesn't make a mess of too many, he and BDA could well pick up the pieces from VVM/PM late on. My main reason for not putting BDA shorter than VVM is that Vroum is tough and more experienced. BDA hasn't been campaigned for this and soft ground could be very important to him.

Anything interesting here?

I would like to know peoples views on the price of vvm and what they think she would be on the day ??
This may come back to bite me on the bum but I couldn't have Vroum Vroum over 2 miles even in this line-up, but I hope she lines up because she'll create value on others. With Ruby on board she'd push Yanworth for favouritsm probably. I made it around 7lbs covers about half the field (including VVM with her allowance) headed narrowly by Yanworth and about half of them have scope to improve beyond their mark, several of them capable of better if returning to former glories (Tent springs to mind) so it's very wide-open. Even though he has no scope if your prices were available I'd be all over The New One each-way he's never a 20/1 shot in this field, he went off shorter than that last year with Annie Power there. I'm happy enough with my 33/1 on Sceau Royal. Shouldn't be good enough to win but granted decent ground he's better than those odds and I'd be sitting very nervous if I was on at current prices for Yanworth or Buveur D'air. Yanworth entitled to be favourite though no disputing that.

jackh1092
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 234
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby jackh1092 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:55 pm

7 / 2 Yanworth
9 / 2 VVM
9 / 2 BDA
6 / 1 Petit Mouchoir
10 / 1 Brain Power
12 / 1 Moon Racer
14 1 Footpad
16 / 1 Sceau Royal
16 / 1 MTOY
20 / 1 TNO
33 / 1 Cyrus Darius
40 / 1 Wicklow Brave


This is how i priced up the race...what do people think? VVM was a difficult one to price up when i did this (day limini wasn't declared).

I have taken her as a likely runner here for obvious reasons and priced accordingly. Will have Ruby on board which is an obvious positive. Now, Mouchoir wont let her run from the front freely, but i'd fancy her to stay/power up the hill better at the finish.

Yanworth is the solid one, even with jumping issues- if he doesn't make a mess of too many, he and BDA could well pick up the pieces from VVM/PM late on. My main reason for not putting BDA shorter than VVM is that Vroum is tough and more experienced. BDA hasn't been campaigned for this and soft ground could be very important to him.


Anything interesting here?

I would like to know peoples views on the price of vvm and what they think she would be on the day ??
This may come back to bite me on the bum but I couldn't have Vroum Vroum over 2 miles even in this line-up, but I hope she lines up because she'll create value on others. With Ruby on board she'd push Yanworth for favouritsm probably. I made it around 7lbs covers about half the field (including VVM with her allowance) headed narrowly by Yanworth and about half of them have scope to improve beyond their mark, several of them capable of better if returning to former glories (Tent springs to mind) so it's very wide-open. Even though he has no scope if your prices were available I'd be all over The New One each-way he's never a 20/1 shot in this field, he went off shorter than that last year with Annie Power there. I'm happy enough with my 33/1 on Sceau Royal. Shouldn't be good enough to win but granted decent ground he's better than those odds and I'd be sitting very nervous if I was on at current prices for Yanworth or Buveur D'air. Yanworth entitled to be favourite though no disputing that.

Yeah i think with her allowance she'd be interesting + definitely wont be 9s on the day if she were to show up. Wont be able to dictate the pace with Petit Mouchoir running! But i do think theres plenty of "recency bias" around VVM, i mean shes ran one bad race in her life and shes now average?!?! She battled and won when under the weather..This is a weak CH as you say and i give her every chance to at least place.

I can't have TNO again and priced him considering how he's ran again this season! I give Sceau Royal a decent chance as you say with the better ground!
Love horse racing
Loving OLBG only joined 12/1/15
Twitter @jackh1092

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2609
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:56 pm

Moon Racer going for this race - right decision for an elder novice, in my opinion. Wide open renewal and if it's not this year then it's never for Moon Racer

Pisto1
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 46
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:33 pm

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Pisto1 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:11 pm

Moon Racer going for this race - right decision for an elder novice, in my opinion. Wide open renewal and if it's not this year then it's never for Moon Racer
Buggered a few ap bets but backed it @20 for the CH just in case.

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3708
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:33 pm

From the point of view of my Ballyandy bet for the Supreme I'm glad and I don't blame the connections for going for it but Moon Racer needs to improve a lot. However, his course performances are encouraging and it is the most open CH in years - every horse has its faults.

nellberg1
Classic Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 808
Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby nellberg1 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:38 pm

completely agree with the decision to run Moon Racer in the CH. They have a fragile but talented horse. If they have it fully fit then you go for the big prize. Recent example would be Coneygree. Plenty said go for the RSA, you can go for the Gold Cup next year ... will have missed the 2 festival's since. In an open renewal I think he'll be carrying my money.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7676
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:24 pm

2 horses pass the trends after the 5 day decs

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412275

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users