Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Brownie3
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Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:03 am

Thoughts...

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby DannyCraig » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:49 pm

Last year's winner Un Temps Pour Tout was rated at 148, The Druids Nephew was off 146 & Holywell the year before off 145.

Does anyone have a list of OR's for which horses are still entered at this stage?

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby titans choice » Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:02 am

Double Shuffle might be missing this race and go to the Grand National going by trainer Tom George as he thinks that should be his main focus.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby nors » Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:29 am

My eye keeps on getting drawn to the quality horse in the race Taquin De Seuil? Any thoughts?

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:38 am

Is he going here?

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby nors » Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:42 am

Not sure Brownie, i just saw him in the betting and thought i wonder if he can lug round that weight? The horse has 5 entries.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:58 am

I would think JJ has Holywell for this, his record in this race is excellent, sure to appreciate the better ground.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:27 am

My eye keeps on getting drawn to the quality horse in the race Taquin De Seuil? Any thoughts?
Top weight in a very competitive handicap and has never won beyond 2 miles 4.5 furlongs

Singlefarmpayment is an obvious starting point but that fall last time has probably left him on a very lenient mark. He posted an RPR of 150 previous to that and was probably going to better it when he was brought down on Trials Day. He's only 7 and i'dbe very surprised if he was rated in the 150s by next season.

I'd be interested in Marinero if he turned up here. Heron Heights likes Cheltenham but might not get in. Coologue is a big price for a Course and Distance winner who might have been campaigned for this since winning here back in October. Goes well fresh ( won first time out for the last two seasons ) so should have enjoyed his mid season break. 50-1 is too big.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Nunnylad » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:26 pm

Noble Endeavour is an obvious one and has been talked up a lot on the previews, I was on at 14-1 but now the price is 8-1 and not as much value. Also on board Henri Parry Morgan, on a very similar mark to what UTPT won this race off last year and has some really good pieces of form behind, such as the 3l 2nd to Native River at Aintree last year in a Grade 1, where Henri beat Blacklion by 3l and UTPT by 10l. Was on at 25-1 on the exchange, still can get a decent price for him on there. 12-1 NRNB with bookies.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:23 pm

7 horses pass the trends at the 5 day stage

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412310

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby nors » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:36 am

From your list Micko and JUST LOOKING AT THE MARKET Doctor Harper, Heron Heights & Another Hero i noted.

The market looks to me very sweet on Ibis Du Rheu. I will be backing this along with Taquin De Seuil Each Way.

Other i noted for this race were 00seven and Marinero.

I find this race fascinating.

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Re: Ultima Steeple Chase - Tuesday 14th March 2017 (Day 1)

Postby Derbz87 » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:47 pm

I also fancy Ibis Du Rheu most at this point. He has the course form in the book. Slight negatives, I'm not 100% he'll fully get 3M 1F around Cheltenham and I would say he's probably fairly handicapped at best on what he's done over fences so far but obviously has a lot of scope.

Singlefarmpayment will be overbet to the point of pushing Noble Endeavour for favouritism and for all he is undoubtedly well handicapped and likes the course, it was too far out for me last time, when bought down, to be certain he'd have beaten Ibis Du Rheu on the same terms.

Henri Parry Morgan showed glimpses of his novice season form behind Tea For Two at Exeter last time out and has fallen 8lbs since the start of the season. He was reasonably well fancied for Hennessy Gold Cup and if on a going day could make a mockery of 142. Probably not for me.

Heron Heights is interesting for Henry De Bromhead. Course and Distance winner in October in novice company. That wasn't a handicap so it may not be all that relevant but he was rated 142 then and races here off 140. He has a lot of entries at this stage.

I'm suprised at Taquin Du Seuil's options. If he was going down the handicap route he'd surely be one for the Brown Plate rather than this, particularly as if for example a Village Vic turns up (likely) he won't be so lonely at the top of the weights. Failing that it should have been the Ryanair where he wasn't disgraced behind Vautour last year.

Noble Endeavour warrants his place at the head of the market, even ignoring his win last time giving lumps of weight to The Crafty Butcher, the form of the Troytown Chase when 4th behind Empire Of Dirt took another boost today with the 2nd horse winning a competitive handicap over in Ireland. He could be another Empire Of Dirt working his way through these handicaps on his way to future Graded efforts. Davey Russell is the perfect man to have in the saddle.

I'd also give an honourable mention to Theatre Guide who ran a cracker under top weight trying to defend his BetBright Chase crown at Kempton last time and reapposes with Pilgrims Bay (if he sneaks in) 8lbs better off. He won at Cheltenham over further before Christmas off just 4lbs lower and he is a class act in the race on his 2nd behind Smad Place in last years Hennessy off a stone lower mark. He's really holding his form well considering his age and connections were going to run him in the Gold Cup but I see Paddy Brennan's jocked up for this and they must be reasonably happy with his mark to keep him to handicap company. His price looks too big for me.

Way down the bottom (No 38) A Good Skin, 2nd in last years Kim Muir off 4lbs higher, ran well behind Theatre Guide in that Cheltenham win and he's a fair bit lower here, likes the track but probably holds place claims at best on a going day, doesn't win enough.

Noble Endeavour looks like the one for this but I'm torn between Ibis Du Rheu and Theatre Guide (given his odds) and will probably back both each-way. Super competitive renewal!

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