Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3116
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Gman84 » Thu Mar 02, 2017 5:05 pm

With the markets getting excited by the possible move from Monn Racer from this to the Champion Hurdle the likes of Ballyandy are shortening up whilst Moon Racer is drifting. If you still like MR for this - and there's still a fair chance he comes into this - then it might be worth seeing how far the price drifts out and you can take some NRNB and protect your investment but get a guaranteed better price if MR does indeed come back into this field. 11/2 is the best NRNB price with SkyBet and bet365 but worth seeing if it drifts any further.
Read my Blogs by clicking here.

pokerslut
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby pokerslut » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:20 pm

Re Charli Parcs, I thought he ran a pig of a race, just wasn't his day and still managed to get back on terms as he fell. Of course well never know but I think he's all class and would have won that race.
A lot seem to like bashing Masterblueyes but I think he's also an outstanding horse with a bright future.
Back to the point 14/1 nrnb for me represents good value but as stated he's almost certain to head for the Triumph.
( which annoys me tbh as it infers they think he has a chance of beating Defi who I'm all over)

Winniematt
2yo
Tips
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:27 am

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Winniematt » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:39 pm

After stating I liked Charli Parcs for this race it seems almost certain that he will now run in the Triumph.

The below blog also gives me another worry as it looks like DDS may possibly be aimed at the the supreme scuppering a lot of my ante-post bets. The 40/1+ on Betfair has now gone and at the time of writing he is 23.0 had a small cover bet at 25/1 to part cover myself.

Talking out of my own pocket i do hope DDS isn't taken here but the attached blog may possibly help members get a bit of value, as if he is aimed at the Supreme he will not be 20/1+ on the day.

https://www.Stan James.com/bet/blog/nick ... 2017-03-03

Seem to be struggling to input the link but for thos interested the blog title is bloody mary toast weekend on the Stan James site.

Derbz87
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 848
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:00 am
Location: Devon

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Derbz87 » Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:32 pm

There are so many question marks, so many potential negatives against so many in this race, nothing would suprise me. I was very tempted to back Ballyandy with his course form and coming off the back of a very impressive Betfair Hurdle win in a race that was run at a true clip. BUT I don't think bar his course winning form as a bumper horse he has any entitlement to be shorter than Movewiththetimes, certainly not the 3 or 4 points shorter he generally is at present. Whether Paul Nicholls horse will run here or not is another matter entirely, he looks a bit of value if he does. For all that I can't get away from both of them being beaten by Moon Racer earlier in the season.

It was a messy race, very slowly run etc... but to me Moon Racer always looked the winner and we can't safely say he wasn't as inconvenienced by the way the race panned out as the other two. He is a Champion Bumper winner at Cheltenham just like Ballyandy remember. His absence since his Sharp Novice Hurdle win and his will he/won't he situation with the Champion Hurdle leave me a bit cold on his prospects at his price.

Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar look more likely Neptune runners.

Couldn't have Melon off reputation alone and Bunk Off Early is interesting but if Ruby rides Melon, which it sounds like he probably will, that tells you a lot about what that yard think of the pair.

I found myself very taken indeed by a horse I'd never even heard of before last week. River Wylde wasn't running in the most competitive race on paper in the Dovecote I'll grant you but if this Neon Wolf is a wheelbarrow job for the Neptune then surely we are judging him through his form with Elgin. We ought to be at least, although I suspsect it's his size and the way he jumps rather than anything he's achieved. I digress.... Elgin would have been better suited by running back at Kempton where he'd previously won and on quicker ground which he also had form on rather than the mud he experienced at Haydock against Neon Wolf. This was River Wyldes first go at Graded company unlike most of these so he was thoroughly unexposed. Capitaine went along from the front at a pretty decent gallop and granted he fell away and went backwards, but only two of them were ever in contention here and the way that River Wylde cruised into it was very impressive. He jumped the last much better than Elgin and he did hang left on the run in (Cheltenham will help in that regard) but he stayed on strongly. That was an 18lb improvement on Racing Post Ratings to anything he's achieved before. Bar his hanging Nico didn't need to ask too many questions of him to comfortably see off a solid yardstick. If he jumps and travels as well at Cheltenham he'd be entitled to be bang there with natural progression that you'd expect from a horse with his profile. He is 14/1 with a few firms that aren't NRNB, generally around 10/1 with those that are. I'd draw attention to SkyBet's offer of money back as a free bet if you back a loser in this race (and indeed every Cheltenham first race of the day), a superb incentive.

titans choice
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1477
Joined: Sun May 03, 2015 11:00 pm

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby titans choice » Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:39 pm

I found myself very taken indeed by a horse I'd never even heard of before last week. River Wylde wasn't running in the most competitive race on paper in the Dovecote I'll grant you but if this Neon Wolf is a wheelbarrow job for the Neptune then surely we are judging him through his form with Elgin. We ought to be at least, although I suspsect it's his size and the way he jumps rather than anything he's achieved. I digress.... Elgin would have been better suited by running back at Kempton where he'd previously won and on quicker ground which he also had form on rather than the mud he experienced at Haydock against Neon Wolf. This was River Wyldes first go at Graded company unlike most of these so he was thoroughly unexposed. Capitaine went along from the front at a pretty decent gallop and granted he fell away and went backwards, but only two of them were ever in contention here and the way that River Wylde cruised into it was very impressive. He jumped the last much better than Elgin and he did hang left on the run in (Cheltenham will help in that regard) but he stayed on strongly.

I will say it looked like it was running away from Elgin and i am not saying Elgin would of beaten it but it has carrying 3 lbs more then River Wylde in that race and in the Supreme Novice Hurdle they will be carrying equal weight so Elgin should be more competitive at Cheltenham.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby The Market Man » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:00 am

Official going at the course :

Old course: Good to soft, soft in places Cross country: Good to soft, good in places New course: Good to soft, soft in places

Some showers between now and Tuesday but nothing major. Looks like Good to Soft for the Tuesday, slightly better ground on the Wednesday.

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14715
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby nors » Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:39 pm

Having looked at the Decs i have to agree with Derbz that the Ruby Walsh selection looks like the one to be on, to kick off the meeting with a win for Mullins. He still has 10 entries at this stage.

The British hopes i like are Movewiththetimes (Mark Walsh booked) and Beyond Conceit for Nicky Henderson, both these trainers have decent records in the race.

But the market looks tight at the top of the betting.

horage
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 2010
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby horage » Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:46 pm

the best advice regarding betting on the supreme is to wait until the day and bet the first race with SkyBet who are giving you

your money back as a free bet on the first race each day of the festival if your horse loses ;so regardless of where moon racer runs

or what ruby rides;take advantage of money back as a free bet has to be well worth considering for the first race each day at the

festival. :win:

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 1920
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:04 pm

I agree horage.

Although I have backed a couple of horses NRNB, which have a good chance of making it to the race, I shall add a further bet with SkyBet to my portfolio on the day.

SkyBet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Key Race Trends – 14 March 2017 – Updated on 8 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412239

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3116
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:39 pm

Neon Wolf now favourite with some firms including Coral who are as short as 3/1. Are people just playing the price and believing he might go here and if he does he'll be super short so with NRNB they're safe to guess or is there genuine belief the horse may go for this?
Read my Blogs by clicking here.

Nunnylad
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 782
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Nunnylad » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:58 pm

Neon Wolf now favourite with some firms including Coral> who are as short as 3/1. Are people just playing the price and believing he might go here and if he does he'll be super short so with NRNB they're safe to guess or is there genuine belief the horse may go for this?
Very weak in comparison on the exchange so I wouldn't read much into this.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:06 pm

SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle discussion. ( no idea why they're showing Douvan win over fences )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwYwzUL6Oag

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users