Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Clearo611
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Clearo611 » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:56 pm

Only had a look briefly at this one so far but can't deny was taken with the performance of River Wylde at Kempton. Looked like it had done too much early and yet cruised into the lead and looked like there was more in the tank. At the current prices reckon this one is great value.

Clearo611
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Clearo611 » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:56 pm

Huge thumb not intended!!

titans choice
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby titans choice » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:58 pm

Is Lets Dance still in this race as bookies have it from 12s to 20/1 but it is a lot bigger on betdaq.

nickpilbeam
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby nickpilbeam » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:43 pm

Beyond Conceit at 33/1 would tempt me as it has ran 2 times since moving to N.Henderson winning both but they were are a class 4 and a class 2.Breed from Galileo and Baraka so it should be quick as Baraka ran 1 time in a class 1 flat race and won that.Beyond Conceit has ran 2 times at this distance winning 1 and placing in the other
Stats suggest flat bred horses don't do great in the Supreme- granted stats are there to be broken! His form is also a good bit below in my opinion!
He is old, but had 3 years off through injury, came to hurdles, started with a class 4, won, then a class 2 won, I think he fits the bill for a winner here totally except for age, but given he had 3 years off I think he is completely unexposed and is primed for this. I got 80/1 on the exchange and will be happy if that comes off in r1 on d1!

Pisto1
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby Pisto1 » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:19 pm

Move with the times is out of the supreme now too

beepee1984
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2017

Postby beepee1984 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:07 pm

1.30 Cheltenham

I’m surprised at the lack of top quality here compare to previous years, which allows Ballyandy to be 2nd Fav here. Despite being last years bumper winner he has been beaten over CD this season and needed the help of a lower weight to win in a handicap latest. This race is suppose to be a Group 1 and it would be disappointing to see it won by a handicapper.
River Wylde has looked impressive over hurdles, but his Grade 2 win was at Kempton and that form rarely can translate into Cheltenham form and his 40 length defeat in a bumper at Cheltenham last October has to be a concern.
Beyond Conceit beat Topofthegame latest, form which suggests he could compete in a Grade 2, but you have to expect at least 1 of the Mullins contingent to be better than that. Also you expect Beyond Conceit to prefer more of a Stamina test.
High Bridge beat a double hurdle winner and does look a decent sort, but faded up the hill in last years bumper and I expect the course to be too tough again.
That leaves the Mullins herd running. Outsider of which is Cilaos Emery who has already been beaten by a handicapper. Melon is well bred on the flat and the perfect trainer to translate that to jumps, won easily, but no idea what he beat, but you have to respect Ruby Walshs opinion and it is his choice. Crack Mome was beaten by both a clever ride by Mark Walsh latest and a mistake at the last.
Bunk Off Early maybe bred to be a sprinter, but his form shows he can clearly make a good hurdler no disgrace in a Grade 1 second latest and an easy winner against a subsequent Listed 2nd shows real ability. He will be better for the better ground and the 2 furlongs less than latest and it would not be the first time Walsh has incorrectly not picked him over another.
Main Tip here is look for the offers from the bookies which allows you options later in the week.
4 Pt – Bunk Off Early 6/1 Sky (Free Bet if loses) 7/1 Available
2 Pt – Melon 11/4 Betway (Free Bet if loses) 3/1 Available

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