Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Robmull » Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:08 pm

I have just posted the first iteration of my trends based blog for this race, for which only 2 entries from the top 8 in the betting market have achieved the minimum score in line with 9 of the last 10 winners of the race.

Altior as expected is one of the qualifiers, but the other horse is a bit of a surprise and may be worth considering as a possible Each Way play.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Key Race Trends – 14 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412267

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Zipster » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:36 pm

How short is Altior about to go with the news that Min along with Faugheen are both out of the festival?

Going to be a silly price now!
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:10 pm

8/11 with Lads, bet you'll get £50 at that price.

1/2 general........what else will turn up to face him?

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:59 pm

I think Yorkhill might run in the Arkle if it's soft but him being supplemented for the Champion Hurdle can't be too far away now.

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby baduck000 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:18 pm

Terrible news was looking forward to min v altior

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:58 pm

I believe Altior would have brushed Min aside fairly easily anyway.

Altior would win that Champion Hurdle if he was in it. Looking at Altior and his class, combined to his jumping ability, he has nothing to fear from Yorkhill. The Henderson chaser is talented and capable. Watching Yorkhill, he would struggle to keep tabs on Altior and would be an accident waiting to happen at Arkle pace. His jumping just isn't quick and it is erratic. Altior had one howler at the 4th Fence in his Sandown race but has generally looked a good jumper. He is winning his races really easily and won more or less hard held last time. Yorkhill looks a far less safe conveyance and has a couple of dodgy looking races in his portfolio. I think Altior would go past him like a rat going up a drainpipe.

5/2 Non-Runner No Bet makes no appeal to me on Yorkhill. He can be backed at 8/1 with Paddy Power without the NRNB conditions but I can't see them putting him up against Altior, who is rated 167 to Yorkhill's 150 on Racing Post Ratings for Chasers.

Just a race to watch and enjoy. Altior's form is already good enough based on horses who came into the Arkle and went on to win it with their rating at the time being around about 160.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Micko70 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:46 pm

I believe Altior would have brushed Min aside fairly easily anyway.

Altior would win that Champion Hurdle if he was in it. Looking at Altior and his class, combined to his jumping ability, he has nothing to fear from Yorkhill. The Henderson chaser is talented and capable. Watching Yorkhill, he would struggle to keep tabs on Altior and would be an accident waiting to happen at Arkle pace. His jumping just isn't quick and it is erratic. Altior had one howler at the 4th Fence in his Sandown race but has generally looked a good jumper. He is winning his races really easily and won more or less hard held last time. Yorkhill looks a far less safe conveyance and has a couple of dodgy looking races in his portfolio. I think Altior would go past him like a rat going up a drainpipe.

5/2 Non-Runner No Bet makes no appeal to me on Yorkhill. He can be backed at 8/1 with Paddy Power without the NRNB conditions but I can't see them putting him up against Altior, who is rated 167 to Yorkhill's 150 on Racing Post Ratings for Chasers.

Just a race to watch and enjoy. Altior's form is already good enough based on horses who came into the Arkle and went on to win it with their rating at the time being around about 160.
How can you say that, they have never raced against each other over fences!!!!

Just because Altior beat Min in last years Supreme novices, nobody could guarantee that he would beat him over fences

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:48 pm

I believe Altior would have brushed Min aside fairly easily anyway.

How can you say that, they have never raced against each other over fences!!!!

Just because Altior beat Min in last years Supreme novices, nobody could guarantee that he would beat him over fences
Gee Whiz, Any time horses meet in a different discipline, the first port of call in deciding which one is likely to prevail is their relative ability in the previous sphere of racing. That is a basic, fundamental application of the available form.

Altior didn't just beat Min in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, he completely outpaced him on the run in to win impressively. It was a clear demonstration of superiority. Altior's form didn't really take off last year until his last couple of races before Cheltenham, where he showed rapidly improving form. This has continued into this year and he's been winning with a ton in hand every time.

When wondering if a horse can close the gap over fences, compared to hurdles, you have to ponder whether one may be a better jumper of fences than the other. There has been no sign of that being a problem with Altior and in 2 Mile Chasers I always prefer the one with more speed in the locker. Altior has followed a similar profile to Douvan regarding the ratings they held/hold at the same stages of their career, approaching the same races at Cheltenham.

I think a mistake that is sometimes made is that fences themselves make the difference between former hurdlers reversing form with one another when they go chasing. Unless there is a clear advantage that one has over the other in fencing technique, then there is no reason why one should get any benefit from the actual obstacle size changing. It is my belief that the explanation is that one horse has blossomed with the passage of time and maturity, enabling it to catch up and pass the formerly superior rival.

Altior is unbeaten over obstacles, winning 5 Hurdle races and 3 Chases. I will be surprised if he is not a 170 rated Chaser sooner rather than later. My opinion is that he would beat Min comfortably and there would have been disparity in their relative prices if they had both turned up.

If anyone was/is willing to back Min against Altior, then they are the ones who should be asking themselves "How can you say that" because the available form strongly suggests Altior would be more likely to win and you would be purely guessing that bigger obstacles can work the oracle.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby jackh1092 » Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:14 pm

I believe Altior would have brushed Min aside fairly easily anyway.

How can you say that, they have never raced against each other over fences!!!!

Just because Altior beat Min in last years Supreme novices, nobody could guarantee that he would beat him over fences
Gee Whiz, Any time horses meet in a different discipline, the first port of call in deciding which one is likely to prevail is their relative ability in the previous sphere of racing. That is a basic, fundamental application of the available form.

Altior didn't just beat Min in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, he completely outpaced him on the run in to win impressively. It was a clear demonstration of superiority. Altior's form didn't really take off last year until his last couple of races before Cheltenham, where he showed rapidly improving form. This has continued into this year and he's been winning with a ton in hand every time.

When wondering if a horse can close the gap over fences, compared to hurdles, you have to ponder whether one may be a better jumper of fences than the other. There has been no sign of that being a problem with Altior and in 2 Mile Chasers I always prefer the one with more speed in the locker. Altior has followed a similar profile to Douvan regarding the ratings they held/hold at the same stages of their career, approaching the same races at Cheltenham.

I think a mistake that is sometimes made is that fences themselves make the difference between former hurdlers reversing form with one another when they go chasing. Unless there is a clear advantage that one has over the other in fencing technique, then there is no reason why one should get any benefit from the actual obstacle size changing. It is my belief that the explanation is that one horse has blossomed with the passage of time and maturity, enabling it to catch up and pass the formerly superior rival.

Altior is unbeaten over obstacles, winning 5 Hurdle races and 3 Chases. I will be surprised if he is not a 170 rated Chaser sooner rather than later. My opinion is that he would beat Min comfortably and there would have been disparity in their relative prices if they had both turned up.

If anyone was/is willing to back Min against Altior, then they are the ones who should be asking themselves "How can you say that" because the available form strongly suggests Altior would be more likely to win and you would be purely guessing that bigger obstacles can work the oracle.
if reports were correct Min was injured in supreme...but we will never find out anyway!
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:21 pm

Injured horses quite often run their race and any problem often doesn't come to light until after the race, even sometimes the following day.

If a jockey feels the horse has gone wrong he will pull him up. If a horse is injured to any significant extent in a race it could not run to be second and pretty much run to form with the horses around it. The form lines for that Supreme read pretty much as they were coming into the race. Min came in 2 lbs below Altior and 1 lb below Buveur D'air, he beat Buveur D'air a length and a half and the ratings clearly suggested that the already fast improving Altior was the one who improved the most of the lot of them to assert his authority. Had Min been trained by anyone other than Willie Mullins he would not have been 15/8 and Altior 4/1 for that race.

As long as Altior doesn't fall at Cheltenham, I think he will come home on his own and be regarded right up there with the top few Arkle winners.
.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:19 pm

We will find out more about Altior on Saturday as he takes on seasoned Chasers in the Game Spirit. Fox Norton is set to be his toughest opponent, according to early betting that sees Altior 4/7 and Fox Norton second best on 7/2.

This will be a proper test for Altior and I wouldn't take the odds he is offered at for this race. Fox Norton concedes 5 lbs but is 7 lbs higher on Official Ratings. I believe Altior is a bit cautiously rated on 160 for now, perhaps the handicapper hamstrung by not wanting to put him too high at this stage. It will be a real challenge, probably a good bit tougher than the actual Arkle will be come the day.

If Altior can beat these more experienced chasers on Saturday, he must go mega short for the Festival. Should be a good race to watch.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:17 pm

Injured horses quite often run their race and any problem often doesn't come to light until after the race, even sometimes the following day.

If a jockey feels the horse has gone wrong he will pull him up. If a horse is injured to any significant extent in a race it could not run to be second
.
That's a biased view point, in my opinion, and incorrect. Amaretto Rose suffered an injury during the Supreme which basically finished her racing career. McKelvey injured itself badly in the National and finished second but was declared lame by the vet.

You can believe Altior is the better horse but dismissing an injury which you know nothing about...

They met once over hurdles and there are literally thousands of examples of form being reversed. It's why people like you and i look for and find value in betting markets.

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