Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Sticky99
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Sticky99 » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:54 pm

We will find out more about Altior on Saturday as he takes on seasoned Chasers in the Game Spirit. Fox Norton is set to be his toughest opponent, according to early betting that sees Altior 4/7 and Fox Norton second best on 7/2.

This will be a proper test for Altior and I wouldn't take the odds he is offered at for this race. Fox Norton concedes 5 lbs but is 7 lbs higher on Official Ratings. I believe Altior is a bit cautiously rated on 160 for now, perhaps the handicapper hamstrung by not wanting to put him too high at this stage. It will be a real challenge, probably a good bit tougher than the actual Arkle will be come the day.

If Altior can beat these more experienced chasers on Saturday, he must go mega short for the Festival. Should be a good race to watch.
If Altior wins the Game Spirit, how short does he go for Cheltenham? Fox Norton will be a better test than anything that turns up in the Arkle (bar possible Yorkhill). Any reason why Fox Norton has not been seen since November?

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:42 pm

Injured horses quite often run their race and any problem often doesn't come to light until after the race, even sometimes the following day.

If a jockey feels the horse has gone wrong he will pull him up. If a horse is injured to any significant extent in a race it could not run to be second
.
That's a biased view point, in my opinion, and incorrect. Amaretto Rose suffered an injury during the Supreme which basically finished her racing career. McKelvey injured itself badly in the National and finished second but was declared lame by the vet.

You can believe Altior is the better horse but dismissing an injury which you know nothing about...

They met once over hurdles and there are literally thousands of examples of form being reversed. It's why people like you and i look for and find value in betting markets.
You are making my point for me there. Amaretto Rose managed to finish third in the Supreme Novices. It is not as if she was tailed off. Her problems came after the race.

McKelvey was second in the Grand National, how could he have managed that unless horses can go through the pain barrier and still run all the way to the line?

If McKelvey wasn't right, then why didn't the jockey pull him up?

Robert Armstrong's Sprinter Never So Bold used to finish lame after almost every race he ran in but it didn't stop him being the best Sprinter of his day.

The person who first raised the issue regarding Min and injury sounded rather vague about the details, perhaps you know all the details about it? If you don't you've got a bit of a cheek saying I know "nothing" about it.

If you have a problem with my input, don't read any of it.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:21 pm

I decided to check the details on Min's injury after the Supreme Novices Hurdle. It was not that easy to find but I did find an article where connections said he picked up a back injury. They stated that this was why he didn't run again that season. Effectively it was only Aintree or/and Punchestown that he would have missed if they were planning one/or both of those races.

Min made his seasonal re-appearance in November, which is by no means a belated return to the the next season, so whatever ailed him could not have been very serious. He managed to win his two chases to date and was assumed to be none the worse at the time.

Getting back to the notion of horses still running their race when picking up an injury in the race, I can only repeat that I have read that it need not affect them much in the race itself. Some injuries occur when the horse is going for everything late in the race and and it need not affect their effort as they give everything.

We saw Many Clouds give everything in beating Thistlecrack and that was despite pushing himself ultimately fatally. He had the will to win and he is not alone according to some experts.

I have tracked down a quote from an article by Mark Johnston, who is a Vet as well as a Racehorse Trainer, if he doesn't know the facts then what hope have we got?

Mark Johnston said the following:-

The best horses cause themselves more damage during a race because they go faster and they don't stop when it hurts. They have no pain barrier and that is the reason good horses break down more easily and must be run more sparingly.'

The link to the page is here, should anyone feel I am making the quote up to suit my arguement:-

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2002/ ... efremantle

If I am wrong in my opinion here, then so is Mark Johnston.

I don't think it is fair to tell people they know nothing about something, when they may be more well read on it than yourself. I take great care to research my input and base it on things I know I have read from people more qualified than me to talk. I don't mind disagreement, it's what all discussion is based on and the sharing of opinions is what makes any forum what it is but it is not great crack to rubbish someone else's opinion and call it incorrect, particularly when you are offering no evidence to support your own opinion.

I have backed up my opinion here, anyone else is free to offer evidence to the contrary but please don't just rubbish other people's carefully considered opinions.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:25 pm

Altior is drifting for the Game Spirit. They had him far too short to start with, this is by far his toughest test of the season. He's shaping to go odds against. I think any bookie worth his salt should have a decent go a laying him in the Game Spirit if the meeting isn't frosted off.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:58 am

I think he was drifting because they mooted the idea that Soft ground wouldn't have been ideal, and he maybe might have been pulled.

Henderson states he will be declared.

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby b3rob1 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:01 am

One of my favourite races of the year and, as always, a fascinating renewal in prospect.
The obvious starting point would be last season's Supreme Novices Hurdle. Altior was an impressive winner but isn't bred to be a 2 mile chaser. His sire is High Chaparral and Nicky Henderson has trained the three best jumps horses amongst his offspring. Hadrian's Approach won the Betfred> Gold Cup but was generally inconsistent and prone to error. Altior's dam also foaled Key To The West.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Altior kept over hurdles.

Min
was no match for Altior in the Supreme but that was one race and after winning the previous three Supreme's, it was inevitable that a Mullins hotpot would lose sooner rather than later. He's 8-1. Now given his connections, he'll be given the ideal preparation for his debut, likely win doing hand stands and be slashed in price.

Like his stablemate, Buveur D'Air isn't bred to be a 2 mile chaser. Very few talented chasers in his pedigree at all, as a matter of fact. If he is sent over fences then he might win a small field novice event but i won't be backing him for this Grade 1.

Tombstone is bred for this game, sharing the same sire as Vautour and Sir Des Champs. 25-1 is available. He was staying on in the Supreme so might be a JLT horse but 25s seems generous, particularly if Altior remains over the smaller obstacles.

Yorkhill is the current favourite and reigning Neptune Hurdle champion. He's bred to appreciate further than 2 miles over fences and his best form over hurdles also paid tribute to his stamina reserves.

At this stage, i like Min and Tombstone.

Has anyone had a bet already ?

I like the look of Yorkhill - at 9/4 i'd take it - I can only see that price shortening

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:18 am

He's got little or no chance of running here.

If Alitor gets injured, I think he'll be diverted here, that's the only hope.

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:09 pm

Yorkhill is well behind Altior in credentials for an Arkle. His Cheltenham win was over further, against slower horses and he sits behind Altior on Hurdles and Chase ratings, looking a lot less accomplished into the bargain over the bigger obstacles. Yorkhill has also run a couple of very stinky races, scrambling home in one and defeated in the other. Altior is unbeaten over obstacles.

Money has come for Altior in the Game Spirit, despite this being a tougher race than he has had before. If he wins, he goes 1/5 or shorter for The Arkle Chase.

Yorkhill is a horse who seems sure to go either to the JLT or The Champion Hurdle. His actual form just doesn't warrant the Cult following he seems to have. I think 9/4 is way too short but at least it's money back if he doesn't run.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:14 pm

That is why Altior would have beaten Min easily in the Arkle.

I believe the horse may now go to Cheltenham rated higher than Sprinter Sacre was in his year.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:57 am

Can honestly say I watched that race behind the Sofa!

He's just got some much flat speed, he can make errors and regain the ground in yards.

Fingers crossed he can jump round Cheltenham ok.

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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:23 pm

Can honestly say I watched that race behind the Sofa!

He's just got some much flat speed, he can make errors and regain the ground in yards.

Fingers crossed he can jump round Cheltenham ok.
Altior is now rated 175 by the Racing Post. Min is rated 153. Even allowing for Min being better than that rating, it is pretty much impossible to imagine two horses at Altior's level at the same time. I don't have the official rating for Altior yet but we should know that one shortly. Timeform have Altior on 167p, which I feel underestimates him. My own feeling was that Altior could improve to 170 and I think that is a more realistic figure for him.

I think it is utterly laughable to see Yorkhill on 9/4 for the Arkle. That has to be the worst value ever. The horse's ratings are a million miles away from the cult following he seems to have. His Racing Post Rating for Chasing is just 150, a full 25 lbs behind Altior.

I make Altior 1/8 for the race and, to be honest, I don't think I would even lay him at that. Yorkhill is a bit like Vroum Vroum Mag, with a long list of wins but at mostly long odds-on. Six of Yorkhill's eight wins under rules came at well odds-on and he also lost at odds of 4/9. He's a 154 rated Hurdler, probably at least a stone inferior to the faster Altior if we are being honest here. Even if Yorkhill does run in the Arkle, he will be much bigger than 9/4 on the day.
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Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby jackh1092 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:56 pm

This race is the least likely option for Yorkhill IMO. for what its worth Yorkhill will never win by a street like Altior, that's the type of horse he is.

I am not saying within that that i think he's better than Altior, but ratings wont accurately reflect him considering he's ran against fairly poor opposition thus far.

I am slightly against Kevin Blakes opinion that 2m would suit Yorkhill most, i think the middle distance suits him most at this stage after all he is bred to be able to stay a trip. His keenness probably wont allow that at the moment though.
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