Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

TeddyT
Classic Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 877
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2006 12:00 am
Location: Sheffield
Contact:

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby TeddyT » Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:23 pm

2/1 Altior for the Arkle looks very, very short to me at this stage of the season.

I'm also in the Identity Thief camp but I can't say the latest Punchestown win filled me with confidence.

What about Cloudy Dream as a potential upset? He's won two novice chases very easily on ground that probably didn't suit - could he be a decent price at 16/1?
OLBG Tipster Competition Manager

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:47 pm

Min runs on Sunday. It is the same race used by Mullins for the chase debuts of Douvan and Vautour.
Min has apparently strengthened well during the summer.

He's my pick for the Arkle.

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1560
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:53 pm

He certainly looks more of a chaser, he should be a leading player.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:13 pm

Well I think Ricci exaggerated the amount his horse had grown but Min won well enough. Worth remembering how much Douvan improved from his debut. What did you think, Brownie ?

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1560
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:13 pm

I thought he did what was expected, a decent marker for the rest. He jumped ok, probably not the best opposition, but yes, you cant knock him I don't think.

Great time of year for me, been some great racing last weekend, yesterday and now today. I love seeing these guys come out, have they trained on, will they make the step up.

Real interest on Saturday with Alitor, I think he looks the real cream I'd say.

Would be nice to get to March, Alitor, Min and Identity T all there.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:51 pm

Very true.

Also, I'd like to see some more horses tried at a higher level. You look back at previous Arkles and several winners hadn't raced at Cheltenham or been beaten in a novice race or handicap the previous year. The JLT is there, the novice handicap is there but some horses are wrapped in cotton wool. The current novice system is partly to blame but were there only two horses in the whole country that could have run at Kempton the other day ?!

Gordon Elliott had 11 horses in the Troytown today. Good for him but I'm not sure it does horse racing in general any favours

Derbz87
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 850
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:00 am
Location: Devon

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Derbz87 » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:55 pm

Should be a good test and the first real pointer to Altior's ability if the field lines up as it is Saturday - Marracudja wasn't a world beater over hurdles but he's already rated higher over fences after two promising displays, he does only know one way of racing from the front and that can sometimes panic others in behind to making mistakes. Probably the bigger challenge might come from Charbel who Kim Bailey is very keen on as a novice chaser. Should be a good race!

Derbz87
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 850
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:00 am
Location: Devon

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Derbz87 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:02 am

Altior did that well for the most part although his winning margin is exaggerated somewhat by Charbel jumping as far right as he possibly could at the last and giving him a couple of lengths, that said he was never really asked a question by Noel Fehily and that's the sign of a top horse against one in Charbel who'd I suggest could be half decent himself in time. That said Altior's price is stupid this far out from the race, particularly as if Min lines up against him there's bound to be some blind money thrown his way just because he's Mullins/Walsh and I'd be suprised if Altior went off much shorter than his 6/4 in places he is now, a good 3 months+ before the race! Antepost betting has been killed for some races with pricing like this but I can't say I blame the bookies too much in fairness, it is what it is. :?

jackh1092
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 228
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby jackh1092 » Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:44 am

Altior did that well for the most part although his winning margin is exaggerated somewhat by Charbel jumping as far right as he possibly could at the last and giving him a couple of lengths, that said he was never really asked a question by Noel Fehily and that's the sign of a top horse against one in Charbel who'd I suggest could be half decent himself in time. That said Altior's price is stupid this far out from the race, particularly as if Min lines up against him there's bound to be some blind money thrown his way just because he's Mullins/Walsh and I'd be suprised if Altior went off much shorter than his 6/4 in places he is now, a good 3 months+ before the race! Antepost betting has been killed for some races with pricing like this but I can't say I blame the bookies too much in fairness, it is what it is. :?
Your right AP betting is gone in this respect..it's ok for a big priced horse but never one that has backform.

he did it well enough, jumping was patchy but that's only his second run over jumps so to be expected. He has the engine there too.

Some have said if you reversed the trainer/owner of Altior and Min, Altior would be odds on already.

For me, even though Min hasn't be put into proper G1 company yet.. i was very impressed with him, and i think he can certainly close the gap come March...whether that's enough to win is another thing.

Altior seems to have a turn of foot after the last that im not sure Min can match.. if there's a jockey who can pull something off tho, Min has him.

Identity Thief is still in there with a shout, he was far too big early on price-wise..his last win left a bit to be desired...but again, hes a novice chaser, and he will have learnt from that. Ordinary World makes the form look slighly iffy, but it looks like he will be a bit better than a 122 horse over fences...mid 130, low 140 i would think.

Some race in prospect here hopefully. Top Notch and Le Prezien are not good enough simple. at best they will sneak a place if something falls or underperforms.

Buveur D'air will be of severe interest when he runs, but i reckon he'll be kept away from Altior...as with Yorkhill he is 50/50 about moving to fences.. I reckon with NC about they should send him over fences, but NC is being talked about for the WH (oh no!)....
Love horse racing
Loving OLBG only joined 12/1/15
Twitter @jackh1092

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1560
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Brownie3 » Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:33 pm

You'd have to be brave at 6/4, could he go off shorter, yes, without doubt.

Previous years we've had Simonsigg and Sprinter been big odds on.

This field could cut up, many will get scared and step up to the JLT.

I think MIn and Identity T clash at Xmas, big race. Would that mean one of those divert?

Enrique125
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 36
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:46 am

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby Enrique125 » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:37 pm

which bookie you recommend?

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2591
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:30 am

I was interested to hear Tom Segal talk about Buveur D'Air recently :
he'd been discussing the novice chasers with the Henderson stable and apparently both BDA and Altior will head to the Arkle


Neither horse is bred to be top class at 2 miles but Willie Mullins, in particular, has recently tapped into some bloodlines that one wouldn't normally associate with certain distances, sometimes not bred for National Hunt racing at all.

It will be some race if both turn up at Kempton

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users