Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

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Arkle Challenge Trophy 2017

Postby The Market Man » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:43 pm

One of my favourite races of the year and, as always, a fascinating renewal in prospect.
The obvious starting point would be last season's Supreme Novices Hurdle. Altior was an impressive winner but isn't bred to be a 2 mile chaser. His sire is High Chaparral and Nicky Henderson has trained the three best jumps horses amongst his offspring. Hadrian's Approach won the Betfred Gold Cup but was generally inconsistent and prone to error. Altior's dam also foaled Key To The West.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Altior kept over hurdles.

Min
was no match for Altior in the Supreme but that was one race and after winning the previous three Supreme's, it was inevitable that a Mullins hotpot would lose sooner rather than later. He's 8-1. Now given his connections, he'll be given the ideal preparation for his debut, likely win doing hand stands and be slashed in price.

Like his stablemate, Buveur D'Air isn't bred to be a 2 mile chaser. Very few talented chasers in his pedigree at all, as a matter of fact. If he is sent over fences then he might win a small field novice event but i won't be backing him for this Grade 1.

Tombstone is bred for this game, sharing the same sire as Vautour and Sir Des Champs. 25-1 is available. He was staying on in the Supreme so might be a JLT horse but 25s seems generous, particularly if Altior remains over the smaller obstacles.

Yorkhill is the current favourite and reigning Neptune Hurdle champion. He's bred to appreciate further than 2 miles over fences and his best form over hurdles also paid tribute to his stamina reserves.

At this stage, i like Min and Tombstone.

Has anyone had a bet already ?

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Postby DannyCraig » Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:28 am

I've got a similar mindset to you.

Min wasn't good enough to keep over hurdles, and so must go jumping this coming season. The Arkle is the obvious race for Mullins to target, as I too believe that Yorkhill will be their JLT horse based on its ability to go the extra distance. The 8/1 looks very attractive based purely on these facts and I have backed accordingly. Until that year happens when Mullins goes off the boil, I want to keep his stock on side in my antepost book.

FYI: I spoke with one of the part-owners of ITSAFREEBEE the other day. He says to expect that one to line up in the JLT if it takes to fences (which they expect it to do based on breeding), so that's the third placed horse in the Supreme bypassing this race.

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Postby man o bong » Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:51 am

I like the fact that Tombstone has a mention - I think he looks a real 'tough' one and that is always an advantage - I've had a little 32 on Betfair

I'm not so sure with Min - yes, if he does go this way then a win along the way will see that price slashed but I dont find 8/1 right now appealing

Petit Mouchoir I think might be better later in the spring than around march time, so a view toward Punchestown is probably the way I would go with that one
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Postby The Market Man » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:20 pm

@Dannycraig - good to know, though you obviously meant the Neptune 3rd. What with Yanworth being by Norse Dancer a terrible sire for chasers, looks like we can scratch those two.

@MoB - yeah, I like Tombstone. I was mulling this over yesterday and I can see it being a well campaigned horse, so if I think there will be defections, 25s is just far too big.

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Postby DannyCraig » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:43 am

@Dannycraig - good to know, though you obviously meant the Neptune 3rd. What with Yanworth being by Norse Dancer a terrible sire for chasers, looks like we can scratch those two.

@MoB - yeah, I like Tombstone. I was mulling this over yesterday and I can see it being a well campaigned horse, so if I think there will be defections, 25s is just far too big.
You are very right TMM - of course I meant the Neptune. Just making sure you're still on the ball in the off season :oops:

What we do know about antepost betting in the past few years, is that if any of Mullins fancied horses wins a tinpot 4 runner race in Ireland early season, it will probably be smashed into Evens. They won't take any chances.

Can we read anything into the fact that Paddy's are shortest at 6's on Min, and top price on Yorkhill at 4's? I know there are many conspiracy theorists out there who believe they have a direct line to the Mullins yard and price up antepost vouchers on the back of this.


Also, can some of you wonderful Forumites have a think about how TOP NOTCH will be campaigned this year for me please. He shares the same sire as Don Poli and Roi Des Francs, so you'd imagine him wanting further than the 2m, but I thought he ran very creditably in the Champion Hurdle last year, ahead of Identity Thief, and was first home after the main 4 protaganists (AP, MTOY, NC & TNO). If they send him over fences this year, which I imagine they will, then surely he must come into the reckoning based on last season's hurdling form?

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Postby The Market Man » Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:34 pm

In my jumps season preview blog last year i wrote that Top Notch was the likelier chasing type from Henderson's 2015 Triumph trio and that he'd appreciate a step up in trip

He's 20s for the JLT.

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Postby The Market Man » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:09 pm

Altior going for the Arkle.

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Postby The Market Man » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:18 am

Sounds like a decision based on the horse's size and age rather than his known ability over fences.

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Postby jackh1092 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:43 am

Punchestown looks to have a possible Arkle contender next week.

Identity thief, best price 20s could be v interesting. He is quite high class. to my eye he likes a slight give in the ground but he is definately interesting. he was bought a chaser and is currently in the right hands.

Doubt he would step up the distance to go in the JLT. So if everything goes to plan i think he could shorten and be a danger to all.

he gave weight to Vroum Vroum Mag, and didnt lose far, over probably an inadequate 2m for VVM but still.
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Postby Brownie3 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:42 am

20's best price with Paddys Power, will be 1/2 that if successful on debut

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Postby jackh1092 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:02 am

20's best price with Paddys Power, will be 1/2 that if successful on debut
You'd think if he stays up, theres only a few in ireland that could beat him...and they wouldnt be so foolish to race this early in season against him!
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Postby Brownie3 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:07 am

I've taken some 20's,, however its merely a saver really, I'm happy to side with Alitor, taken the 4's, into shorter now.

Not sure how this market will pan out, I'd be expecting Min and Yorkhill to be prominent in the betting, with one diverting to the JLT later on.

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