Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:24 am

Massive Drift...settling down a little as I type!
Cue Card seems to be 4/1 for gold cup with most bookies and is 3/1 with SkyBet> did it drift then go back down or did it have shorter odds then 4/1 before the drift.
It drifted on the exchanges at Betfair, was out to about 5.6 when I looked yesterday but I think went even longer at one point and is now 5.1 just behind Native River and Djakadam at 5's.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Crofty11 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:49 am

Thanks for the reply Shrews..I knew the horse as a two and three year old, he is a great jumper normally...he struggled when thistlecrack turned it on from four out in the King George and it looked like he would fade away. But he then stayed on strongly pinged the last and could have got second with another 100 yards. I think he will stay ok...

But you never know, until they do the distance

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:05 am

Went out to 10's on Betfair Exchange, now steady, who knows?

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Crofty11 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:48 pm

I took a small Each Way on tea for two , with non runner no bet, 66-1 seems very generous.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:26 pm

Don Poli a Non Runner

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Pisto1 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:15 pm

Empire of dirt may well end up in the GC after all then

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:55 pm

Shame about Don Poli, another quality horse misses out. It's shortened a few of those behind including More Of That and maybe more significantly Empire Of Dirt. Having watche the Betfair preview Gordon Elliott looked almost desperate to run this horse in the Gold Cup and stated the owner wanted his top prospects split up. They still have Outlander of course but I wouldn't blame anyone who likes Empire Of Dirt getting stuck into 12's now with NRNB because if he gets moved to this he will go off much shorter IMO.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby BadReligion » Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:48 pm

I haven't invested heavily antepost this year. In the past all of my profits have been made on the day and I'm sure if I had bet in advance I'd be approaching the festival in arrears.

I've gone for Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Many people are opposing him on the basis that 1) he has been found out twice 2) Statistically not many horses beaten in the Gold Cup subsequently win and 3) his form in the run-up hasn't bean great.

I'd say in answer to the first yes he was beaten twice but that was by two very good horses. I think Don Cossack would have won the King George quite well last year had he stayed on his feet. In the Gold Cup Cue Card was travelling well but he fell a long way out. We don't know whether he would have won or not but timeform sectionals in the King George and the visual impression led me to believe Don Cossack had his measure. Don Cossack actually jumped that fence slightly in front of Cue Card before he went down and I think he would have stayed on and won it had he not fallen. Don Cossack beat Djakadam around 4 lengths in the Gold Cup. It's a small margin to play with if you think Cue Card would have finished in between or even in front of the first and second on that day. Cue Card is now 11.

The second issue is statistics. How many horses finish a close second in two gold cups. Not many I submit. All sorts of strange things happen in racing and opposing Djakdam on that basis is flawed reasoning. It's very rare for a horse to finish second in two consecutive Gold Cup's. He's still young enough and if you believe a reproduction of his last efforts are good enough this time the statistics will mean nothing.

Form. Djakadam has been trained all season with the Gold Cup in mind. He clearly likes the track. Cue Card finished second in a King George where Thistlecrack was allowed to dictate, it was a small field, it was over 3 miles on a less exacting track- it as like a hurdles race. Whilst I don't know the sectionals the proximity of the other horses to Cue Card suggests something was out of the ordinary that day. I think he underperformed. I doubt any other horse in this years Gold Cup field would have done any better. Colin Tizzard has stated Native River can't live with Cue Card on the gallops. Native River stays very well but he's beaten no one. Just look at the horses he beat in the Hennessy and the Welsh National. They are rubbish and would have no chance in a gold cup even if it was a handicap. Willie Mullins has said Djakadam's preparation has been a lot better than it was last year.

The rest of the field the likes of More of That, Outlander, Sizing John, Minella Rocco just don't have the ability to win a Gold Cup. It's a three horse race and In my opinion when all the evidence is scrutinised Djakadam comes out best. Ignore his defeat to Outlander. He's clearly better than that.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby DhenBhoy » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:12 am

Everyone stop "looking for value" there's only one winner of this race. If anyone listened to my advice months ago you would have all lumped on thistlecrack with prices of 5/1 and 6/1! No stopping this machine winning. Stats about the race don't mean anything, you can try "looking for value" with outsiders that may be over priced or you could lump on now with prices of evens still available. Certainties of the meeting in march are as follows: Altior 5/4 douvan 2/5 and thistlecrack 1/1!!! £10 on them 3 pay about £60 so before it's too late this is value!!!

All certainties eh? :shock: :lol:

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby addpea » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:49 am

Wrong thread
@DarranPearce on twitter feel free to add me

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby bishbosh » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:06 am

Great write up :win: wrong thread
If I study and fail so be it
But to not study is like opening your window and throwing your money out hoping the wind brings it back in

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby bishbosh » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:26 am

So Gold Cup day is upon us and the picture remains clear as mud.

On Wednesday morning Djackadam backers would have been worried about the mullins yard but 4 wins yday and Ruby saying the horse is in fantastic shape and bullish will now probably send it off as favourite , currently 10/3 but not with my money on its back as i dont believe good enough after 2 attempts even in a weak year.

Cue card is now 3rd fav at an easy to back 9/2 and sure not to go off at that price once the housewives fivers go on

Native river is the one with the form and impressive lto and would be fav if not for the mullins form factor. Can see this going off 3rd favoutite behind cue card and even possibly touching 5's which would make it an Each Way no brainer as with a clear round nailed on top 3 and lasts home.

So will the prize stay in the top 3 in the betting or will sizing john outlander minella rocco cause a surprise.
One to keep a clear eye on is market mover more of that who is a classy horse having won the world/stayers hurdle previously but has had setbacks since. This carries my Each Way money but in the 20's not the skinny 12's 14's now on offer.

So with questions marks about cue card and djackadam who i feel have both had and missed their gold cup chance i shall be watching the market on the native river drift fuelled by mullins backers and the nations blind love for cue card and if it hits the magic 5-1 ill be all over that price in a heartbeat.
If I study and fail so be it
But to not study is like opening your window and throwing your money out hoping the wind brings it back in

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