Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Gman84
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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:42 pm

I've been on nights and woke up this afternoon and wanted to look at something in my SkyBet account and found more money than I should have had. Wondering how I've got it I then discover the sad news of Thistlecrack! Let's hope he recovers well and we see him back next season in all his glory. I'm already guessing he'll follow a similar route to this race next year by going for the $1m bonus of Betfair Chase/KG/GC.

As for he race itself no surprise that a Native River has gone favourite and everything else has shortened behind.

But surely now there has to be a few longer shots worth a look. I've no idea how Nigel Twiston-Davis is thinking with Blacklion as it seems the National is his main target but surely they must be strongly considering staying in this race? He won last years RSA, so has Festival experience and ability, his run giving weight to the field last Saturday was excellent. He's got just under four weeks to recover and at 50/1 NRNB I've gone ahead and had a small investment. Worse that can happen is he stays home and I get my dosh back.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Robmull » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:56 pm

Hi Gman,

Strangely enough fellow member Underdogslover mentioned that he was interested in BLAKLION in a comment on my blog, which got me thinking along the same lines as you mention above, especially as both Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere have done the RSA/Gold Cup double in consecutive seasons, during the last 4 years, so I threw a bit of loose change at the horse at 66/1 ew NRNB with Paddy Power, earlier this afternoon.

Fingers crossed that he gives us a good run for our money, but no downside if he goes straight to the Grand National.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:09 pm

That's a nice price Rob, I took the 50's with SkyBet as they were who I had my dosh back off for Thistlecrack. bet365 are only 40's so there's a range of prices but I definitely feel if he were to turn up he'll be at least half the prices we've taken. Shot to nothing but let's hope we can both look a little smug in a few weeks time. :win:

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby bishbosh » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:21 pm

Ive just had a ew nibble aswell at 50's as something has to come out the woodwork and still 3 weeks or so to go and wasnt one id considered but if did go for this would def be less than half the price im sure. I guess nrmb allows free shots in the dark :hope:
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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby BadReligion » Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:33 pm

There goes my acca. I'm now hoping a similar thing happens as when Lord Windermere won it and I had an ante post bet on him that I completely forgot about. In this case it's Blaklion.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Robmull » Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:46 pm

BLAKLION certainly appears popular on this thread and has been cut to 40/1 with Paddy Power.

Hopefully, great minds think alike, rather than fools seldom differ!!

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Pearljam » Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:14 pm

I backed Don Poli E/W at 33/1 in the Autumn, as I simply thought that it was a ludicrous price and that was when Don Cossack, Coneygree and Thistlecrack were all still in the race!

I am obviously even happier now that the race has cut up so much. Now I cannot see the winner coming from anywhere other than the front six in the betting.

Allowing that the winner is almost always a horse running in its first Gold Cup, the most likely winner should therefore come from Native River, Sizing John or Outlander.

However, the other interesting and very strong stat is winning or being placed at a previous Festival. So between the three of them, all you have is Sizing Johns forlorn second to the mighty Douvan (no disgrace), which in fairness does put him ahead of Native Rivers second to Minella Rocco in the National Hunt Chase. Not the most impressive of winning candidate CV's!

What is also interesting about the other three of the top six in the betting, is that conversely, they ALL happen to have pretty stellar previous Festival form.

So to summarise the six most likely winners as of today:

Native River - Has won a Hennessey, a Welsh National and a 3 runner Grade 2, beating largely nowt. Why that level of form makes him favourite for a GC is beyond me? Could win, but not for me.

Cue Card - Great Festival favourite who would certainly be the most popular winner by a mile. Never seen him as a horse that would genuinely stay 3m 2f at Cheltenham. At 11, even less likely.

Djakadam - Gallant runner up in the last two renewals and last years was regarded as a particularly strong GC. Definite chance as this years race is a much weaker affair.

Sizing John - Looks to have class, some Festival form and a first time runner. Potential stamina doubts but appeared to particularly relish going 3m last time. Profile fits the best of the new kids on the block.

Outlander - Has a duck egg and a fall at the previous two Festivals, plus potential stamina doubts. Better in Irish conditions it would seem, but over here in a GC. Not for me.

Don Poli - An enigma to say the least. Form reads 113 at the last three Festivals, is the right age and definitely stays, period. Also unlike Outlander, all of his best runs have been over here as opposed to in Ireland. Poor ride last time and still managed a strong finishing third in a vintage year. Bizarrely, he is still 16/1 (1/4 odds first 3) in what is technically a 6 horse race?! The outstanding value.

Therefore Don Poli and Sizing John both E/W and then add Djakadam. These are my first three home in whatever order you like (A tempting Combination F/C - T/C?)

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby sportingsamcan » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:11 pm

I spoke to Joe Tizzard yesterday and he had plenty to say about the Gold Cup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ni0lZMOaSW4

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Buckz990 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:13 pm

Lizzie Kelly has been confirmed to be the first female rider in the Gold Cup on board Tea For Two currently 66/1 if anyone believes in great story's :D

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:47 pm

Native River drifting on the exchanges this morning? Cue Card has gone favourite. Hopefully not more news of another star injured!?

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby titans choice » Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:30 pm

Thistlecrack due to be scanned again on tuesday everyone with a antepost bet on it may want to cross their fingers for luck.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:02 pm

Appears Betfair exchange has been on a roller coaster ride with the Thistlecrack news. When I first seen it I looked and he was as low as 3.94!! I think people are getting carried away, he's going for another scan, if it's completely clear he might run (and we've had horses before that were out then in again, Kicking King a prime example) but if it's just not as bad as they thought I would think they would be inclined to not take the risk.

As someone who was ante post on Thistlecrack I've had my money back and indulged a little in a different target but should he come back onto the market I'm not quite sure if I would back him again with all that's gone on.

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