Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

TeddyT
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Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby TeddyT » Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:57 pm

Its never too early to start talking about Cheltenham so lets start with the Gold Cup.

Lots has been said recently about if ante-post tipping is still a viable option now that Willie Mullins has such a strong hand and how this can mean very late decisions as to where his powerful team are going to run.

I thought it might be a good idea to record the best price of the main protagonists as we go throughout the year. So as of today, 22nd June, the Gold Cup 2017 market looks like this:
  • Thistlecrack 8/1
    Vautour 8/1
    Don Cossack 8/1
    Cue Card 11/1
    Douvan 16/1
    Djakadam 16/1
    Coneygree 16/1
    Valseur Lido 25/1
    Don Poli 33/1
    Black Hercules 33/1
    Killultagh Vic 33/1
    Vroum Vroum Mag 33/1
    Blaklion 33/1
    Native River 33/1
    Carlingford Lough 33/1
    Road To Riches 33/1
    Nichols Canyon 33/1
    40/1 Bar
So is there any early value in the Gold Cup market?

Don Cossack, Coneygree and Road To Riches will be 10 years old in 2017 and Cue Card and Carlingford Lough will be 11. No double figure aged horse has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998 so would that put you off any of these 'veteran' chasers? Denman (twice), Kauto Star and Mon Mome have all been placed in the last ten years when ten or older and On His Own lost out by just a short-head to Lord Windermere in 2014 when he was ten years old. I wouldn't be put off simply because a horse's age hasn't been succesful in a while.

However, I do think the likes of Cue Card, Djakadam, Don Poli, Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough have probably missed their best chances for winning a Gold Cup.

I think you could argue that 8/1 about a defending champion looks more than fair but I'm not a massive fan of Don Cossack so I'd pass him over too. I'd like to see Coneygree and Killultagh Vic back on the track before seriously considering either of them.

As for the younger horses, personally I feel Thistlecrack is no value at his current odds considering the task he has against him.

I couldn't back Nichols Canyon, Vroum Vroum Mag or Douvan given the variety of other options they are likely to have.

Vautour appeals most to me of the horses at the head of the market but his price is probably about right considering how his target race changed last year.

Blaklion, Native River, Valseur Lido and Black Hercules are all on the improvers list and are likely to attract some support but the last named could be a fair price at 33/1.

Black Hercules won the JLT at Cheltenham after being favourite for the NH Chase for a lot of last winter so is obviously versatile when it comes to trip. Mullins said after his JLT win that his immediate thought was to aim the horse at the Ryanair in 2017 but it could be worth chancing that his owner Graham Wylie would prefer to aim his best horse at the Gold Cup. Wylie was beaten a short-head with his On His Own in 2014 so would surely want his best horse heading for the Gold Cup, especially as it is a race he has never won at the Festival.

So at this stage I'm willing to take a small chance on Black Hercules at 33/1.

1pt win Black Hercules @ 33/1 for the 2017 Gold Cup

Do any other members have a horse they have backed or are going to back yet for the Gold Cup?
Last edited by TeddyT on Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby TeddyT » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:05 pm

Randy Rann has said this on another thread re the Gold Cup:

16-1 Djakadam for the Gold Cup looks an outstanding Each Way punt as that looks his only viable target. If you believe Thistlecrack will stay hurdling, Douvan will go Queen Mother, Vautour-Ryanair, Cue Card maybe past his best next year and who knows how Coneygree will fair once back then Djakadam looks second best to Don Cossack.
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Postby TeddyT » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:08 pm

JoeWBA feels Don Poli is the one to be on with a stronger ride:
Don Poli is at least twice the price he should be for the Gold Cup @ 33/1 IMO. He was given a deplorable ride by soft-hands Russell in this year's renewal and never put into the race at any stage. It was more or less a racecourse gallop and Patrick Mullins even said in the build-up to Aintree that the horse came out of the race better than he went into it

Fast-forward to Aintree, he's got Cooper back on board and is given a proper, aggressive ride; niggled at all the way round and rammed into every fence to let him know he's in a race and he looks every inch a grade 1 horse. Yes, the cut in the ground would've helped him at Aintree but the flat track wouldn't have played to his strengths at all.

He relishes the extra distance and stiffer finish of a Gold Cup and it's hardly unlikely that we'd get good to soft or even soft ground in March. He's also only 7, so you'd like to think he will improve further next season
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Postby TeddyT » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:10 pm

The Market Man believes Thistlecrack could be decent value:
I'm inclined to disagree with those who think Thistlecrack is poor value at 10s. Ground is immaterial, he likes Cheltenham and Tizzard will be able to work him with Cue Card. He's a popular horse who'll be given a nice opening chase to start the season and his odds could be 6s by Christmas
He's enough going against him but 10-1 sounds alright to me. He's more talented than Coneygree and, unlike that one, he isn't ground dependent.
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Postby horage » Wed Jun 22, 2016 5:48 pm

I'm not sure THISTLE CRACK will run in the gold cup 2017 so any

ante post bets will be money down the drain and any novice taking on

DON COSSACK or VATOUR WOULD HAVE TO BE EXCEPTIONAL

over fences as i think we have entered an era of irish gold cup winners

for next 5 years or so.......The only blot on the landscape for the mullins

yard is CONEYGREE if that one turns up fit in march ;but thats a big if.

best advice Keep your powder dry on gold cup ante post market... :?

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Postby BadReligion » Tue Jun 28, 2016 4:54 pm

Blaklion is worth a small bet

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Postby Nicoista » Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:18 pm

On the Gold Cup, I like the look of Valseur Lido. Looks as if the step up in trip in the Gold Cup will suit the way he finished in the Ryanair last season and in 2014, my only negative with him is if conections see him as a national horse.

Vautour reminds me alot of One Man who never saw out the Gold Cup and as good as Vautour is I think he\'ll be the same.

I think they will drop Djakadam back in distance to the Ryanair after 2 near misses at the Gold Cup as I think he\'ll find something to good for him again this time, and the Ryanair looks as it\'s got his name all over it.


Don Cossack, and Coneygree will they come back as good from their injuries and I think time will catch up with Cue Card. Thistlecrack I think they will milk the world hurdle for years to come (even though he\'s bred to be an even better chaser). Of the novices I don\'t really see any of them being good enough as second season chasers to make a impact. I think they would be better suited taking their time by going to the Ryanair this season then looking to the gold cup another year down the line.

Of the rest I think Apache Stronghold could have a ew chance if he can return from injury at a big price.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby The Market Man » Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:29 am

I'm glad i was one of those who took 10s on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup but, in hindsight, i missed the boat on the King George : he was as high as 12s just a few months ago. I didn't expect the race to cut up as badly as it did but, still, it should have gone in the antepost portfolio.

Thistlecrack is now hot favourite for this but Cheltenham will be a sterner test and if he takes a chance at that fourth last then something like Valseur Lido could benefit.

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby man o bong » Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:53 am

WOW - evens in a place, that is very short, very very short!!

Can see many jumping on the ant post market at that price, no matter how impressive the win was. I can't crab the performance, indeed, I was against him on his first outing at Kempton but the class was very very apparent. I'm trying to look elsewhere but it's proving very difficult. I can see a few switching away from the Gold Cup you know, I think he will have already frightened a few off. Cue card doesnt look bad at 12/1, he didnt put in a bad show at all and in the run I thought he was looking better. That was until the home turn when Thistlecrack did his thing

Don't think the Gold Cup will be a big betting race for me this year
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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby UnderdogsLover » Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:23 pm

Thistlecrack Yes what a great run yesterday, and know added King George to his list.

I was wrong, thought he would another year or so.
Handles any going even won on heavy a Cheltenham..

Think next year- ( not long now ), just be watching Gold Cup. :yes:
Least we got another young star to follow...
Can Thistlecrack :? Do another Dessie go for the Irish National
or Whitbread what ever it called now?
Hope he see s out much longer trip, and who knows..

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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:45 pm

I was saying on another thread how poor the value on Coneygree was at 8/1.

The stable have stated that he won't now run before Cheltenham due to his latest setback and you can get 14/1 on him now. That makes zero appeal to me and I have a gut feeling we may not see this horse anywhere near his best again.

Native River is creeping in from the advised 12/1 and I could see him as low as 6/1 2nd Fav come March. I can rarely remember being as unenthusiastic about so many of the field as I I am this season.
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Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:13 pm

More of that had a decent ruin the lexus and I think it will like the pace set. Could well be doing a Lord Windermere up the hill...

Still a decent EW price

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