Is it worth having more than one bet in a particular race?

nors
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Is it worth having more than one bet in a particular race?

Postby nors » Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:58 pm

When you add more selections in a race you are cutting your potential profit but many of us and i include myself in this prefer especially at a big meetings to select a few horses.

I may well have a minimum of 3 and possibly 4 selections in the 10 handicaps + possibly 2 selections in some of the Championship Races.

The handicaps will tend to be bigger priced selections, but i expect i will have at least 50 bets at Cheltenham over the 4 days. I am expecting 1/2 winners and maybe 8 horses placed. So i will need the 2 winners to be double figure prices.

I have budgeted for this and have a spreadsheet set up for selections and different bookies.

Will most members be having 2 or more bets per race or are you braver and stick to the 1?

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Postby Micko70 » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:04 pm

It depends on the race i suppose, if i fancy 1 horse strongly and think another has a chance then i would back the fancied horse to win and back the other ew or win/place

Some of my trends blogs often have 2, 3 or even 4 qualifiers and more often than not i would dutch them all so i win the same amount

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Postby DaveTehTipst0r » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:04 pm

obviously if you back more than one you are guaranteed a loser but backing two or more can often pay dividend if you are either unsure about one or believe the race will be between a and b and/or the odds are pretty enough to back both with a decent return should one win.

i often back a horse (a favourite i fancy for example) and if i feel there is a danger at a big price i may cover it

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Postby Brownie3 » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:10 pm

Never be afraid to have more than 1, never.

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Postby Nunnylad » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:10 pm

It depends. Some races lend themselves to backing one horse E/W, such as both Mares races and the World hurdle. All have short priced favourites so you don't want to be picking more than one horse in those races as it will be -EV.

However, in some of the bigger handicaps it is +EV to pick two horses to win instead of 1 E/W given the nature of the race.

This is especially true with the foxhunters and that is a race where I will be betting on the top 2/3 jockeys in the race. A lot of the riders(such as Pendleton) aren't good enough to win the race and it will come more down to the jockey than the horse.

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Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:39 pm

My own belief is that if there is enough potential value then I will back more than one runner.

Ante-post at big odds I may have 3 or 4 selections along the way in the Classics and may do two in some of the big handicaps.

At Cheltenham, I think you would be ambitious if you think you can find the winner in the big field handicaps with a solitary selection. In some races you could pick four and not select the winner.

A mate of mine used to do two 2/1 shots in the same race eg 50pts on each but you are effectively betting 1/2 your money doing that as 100pts invested returns 150pts and that's not my idea of value.

If the odds offer overall value, there's no harm in increasing your chances, that's why the bookie wins so often, he's got every other runner bar yours going for him!

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Postby jennywales » Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:59 pm

This is especially true with the foxhunters and that is a race where I will be betting on the top 2/3 jockeys in the race. A lot of the riders(such as Pendleton) aren't good enough to win the race and it will come more down to the jockey than the horse.
I will be really interested to see who McBratney Jr selects for his ride - it should be Marito, and if he rides Carsonstown Boy it would be a big surprise. J J Codd, Carberry, Walsh K, Slevin, Hart, Mangan, Biddick, Easterby; there are actually a number of very good amateurs around at the moment, and I am sure I have missed some out (no offence intended!)

I won't simply be betting on the jockeys, but it will be a factor in my decisions.

On the topic as such, I have already backed 3 in the Foxhunter (Marito, Dark Lover and Carsonstowns Boy) much on the same principle as Nunnylad. I think one is likely to win (Marito) but Dark Lover and Carsonstowns Boy are in with e/w chances at much longer prices - and I have been known to back place only in these circumstances - you kick yourself if it wins, but on the other hand you save the win stake!

I may back 2 in some other races, it all depends....

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Postby Gman84 » Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:50 pm

I don't think there is any harm backing more than one. In most big handicaps through the year intend to read Micko70's trend blogs and sometimes take one of them then they'll usually be one I fancy and I tend to look at horses who may have performed well in the race before or have a particular liking for the track.

It doesn't always have to be long odds though. I'd started nibbling away at Don Poli in the Gold Cup a long while ago but Cue Card has won me over over the course of the year and whilst he was still an e/w price I've also taken some of the 7/1 that was around about 4 or 5 weeks ago. Ideally I'd have Don Poli win and Cue Card place (& I may have a cheeky small stake on the forecast on the day) but if either bet comes off I'll be happy. I'm fully aware I'm cutting my profit margin by doing it but I am increasing my chances of winning.

ive had a few ante posts on certain races, some I'll back again on the day some I'll likely back something else and have two horses covered. It's Cheltenham, it's tough to pick winners, having more than one selection gives you more interest and chances and sometimes you actually do fancy more than one horse.
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Postby davidg3907 » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:00 pm

Strictly speaking, the question should not exist.

To back anything at all, one would assume that it is deemed to be value.

I feel a coin toss coming on. :oops:

If one person offers you 6/4 heads and another offers 2/1 tails on the same toss of a genuine coin, do you:-

a) back just the 2/1 chance because the odds are better, or
b) back them both because both are good value:?

Over an extended series of tosses, the first option should perform better, but a case could be made in favour of either action for a single toss.

Extend that back to racing and back anything/everything you judge to be good value. Do not back anything that you consider isn't.

The number of horses (or percentage of the field) backed, is arithmetically a red herring; but backing two, three, or more because it is a 20 runner handicap is definitely the wrong reason for doing so.
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Postby Shrews » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:15 pm

I've said this before, but if you don't think the horse will win by 5l or more then you shouldn't be putting your hard earned on it.

Therefore, you definitely shouldn't be backing more than one, unless you think two horses will pull 5l lengths clear of the rest and would still make you a profit if one of them won.

Same goes for more than two.

For example if I really fancy three horses and think they will pull 5l clear of the rest then:

Horse A - 3/1
Horse B - 3/1
Horse C - 3/1

If one of them wins I am +1 in profit. Trouble is that if this strategy loses on the fourth race then all my profit from the first 3 races is gone.

If you think it's a likely scenario that you may get it wrong every 1 in 4, you may as well go back to the original idea of only betting on races where you think just one horse will win by 5l :D

However, as it's Cheltenham and it only comes around once a year just bet as many as you like :D

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Postby Remapthfc » Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:02 am

I'm with Nors here, whilst I agree with some that if you think a horse will win why back against it.
I though don't think the big handicaps and festival races on the whole are that easy so taking a view on a couple of selections is always the right way for me to play.

I already have 25 antepost bets, some of which will not turn up and some in the wrong races but on those that I have the better prices on I will then look to have bets on the day to back them up.

Following a few pay services in the past and even presently knowing some current tipsters there are also a lot that play the festival this way.

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Postby deswalker » Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:51 am

What David said.

But louder.
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