RSA Chase - Wednesday 16th March 2016 (Day 2)

evertoncal
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Postby evertoncal » Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:04 pm

I have just completed my trends based blog for the RSA Chase (link below) and it is interesting to note that none of the top 7 entries in the betting have achieved the minimum threshold score in line with 9 of the last 10 winners of the race.

That said, I fully expect a few to increase their scores after they have competed in their prep race, although age may be against MORE OF THAT, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT and PONT ALEXANDRE, as they are all 8 year olds and no horse aged older that 7 years has won the race during the past decade.

RSA Chase Key Race Trends – 16 March 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410664
Wouldn't think More Of That is your typical 8YO though due to his problems. It's more miles on the clock for me then age.

Robmull
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Postby Robmull » Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:03 pm

You may be right evertoncal, but at this stage he fails a number of other key trends.

If he does meet all the other trends after his prep race, I will not discount MORE OF THAT on age alone, but at this stage he makes limited appeal as the likely winner based on the trends and in my opinion he offers little value at current odds.

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Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:54 pm

More Of That reported to be going to Newbury this coming weekend.

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Postby Derbz87 » Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:36 pm

Thought I'd throw another name into the hat Drumacoo of Ben Pauling is carrying a small Each Way stake from me has been since he hosed up at Huntington on his chase debut beating Fletchers Flyer by 38 Lengths. Nico de Boinville thinks the world of this one and he reappears this weekend in Reynoldstown Chase which has long been the target. Faces a couple of potentially good uns in Phillip Hobbs Onenightinvienna who is a potential grand national runner, if Drumacoo wins this he will plummet from the 20/1 generally available I would imagine into 3rd fav behind No more heroes and More of that. Ben Pauling hasn't confirmed him yet but RSA is the intention if he runs well this weekend.

sportingsamcan
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Postby sportingsamcan » Tue Feb 23, 2016 3:51 pm

We discuss some of your views right here in another OLBG preview for the RSA.

[youtube]IN0lSCsmzWo[/youtube]

Robmull
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Postby Robmull » Sun Feb 28, 2016 2:52 pm

I have just updated my trends based blog (link below) with scores for all of the likely runners for the RSA Chase and have identified 5 horses that have achieved the minimum threshold score that has been required to win 9 of the last 10 renewals of this event.

It is interesting to note that at current best odds, the 5 qualifiers are available at odds ranging from 14/1 to 50/1, which suggests that if the trends hold true the winner this year could be a relatively unfancied runner.

RSA Chase Key Race Trends – 16 March 2016 - Updated With Scores For All Likely Runners
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410664

DannyCraig
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Postby DannyCraig » Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:37 pm

So what do we think about Shaneshill running in this race? Makes no sense at all for me. Surely the JLT is the obvious race for it, and Black Hercules to run here?

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Postby Pieros » Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:04 pm

I m in love with Blaklion and I hope he'll run well again.

Brownie3
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Postby Brownie3 » Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:10 pm

So what do we think about Shaneshill running in this race? Makes no sense at all for me. Surely the JLT is the obvious race for it, and Black Hercules to run here?
Mullins suggesting this morning that the JLT is the slight fav for Shaneshill ahead of the RSA now.

Changes with the wind doesn't it!

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Postby The Market Man » Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:01 am

More Of That yet to run in a chase of at least 3 miles, only two runs over fences and not raced in the calendar year

51 of the lat 52 winners ran in the same calendar year
15 of the last 16 winners had run at least 3 times over fences


Talk about a stats buster !

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Postby Robmull » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:57 pm

I have just completed the final update of my trends based blog (link below), which includes my Each Way selection for the RSA Chase.

RSA Chase Key Race Trends – 16 March 2016 - Updated With Final Comments And Selections
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410664

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Postby Brownie3 » Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:43 am

RIP No More Heros.

Put down last night, real shame, monster of a horse.

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