Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 15th March 2016 (Day 1)

The Market Man
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Postby The Market Man » Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:10 pm

A couple of bookies have gone 11-2 My Tent Or Yours

Slight overreaction !

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Postby Derbz87 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:27 pm

The whole markets compressed its a sea of blue!

Annie Power installed as 2's, 3's in a place fav
Arctic Fire generally 3 or 3.5's from 7 or 8's
Nichols Canyon 4 or 5's from 10-12's
Identity Thief 4-5's from 10-12's
The New One 7's up to 10's from 16's
My Tent or Yours 5.5 up to 10 in a place from 16-18's

Old Guard :shock: was 40's hes as low as 16/1 in some places!

Imagine what'll happen if My Tent wins at the weekend if they've cut him that much already

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Postby Gman84 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:31 pm

That's a horrible price for MTOY. I could understand that price to an extent if the comeback run happens and goes well but otherwise...no thank you.

Almost everything else has shortened which is no surprise. From my point of view I've had some drips and drabs on The New One at 25's and 20's and it's now a best priced 10/1.

With NRNB on offer for a lot of firms I'd expect Annie Power to keep drawing money with punters knowing they can get their money back if she ends up going elsewhere.

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Postby Sticky99 » Wed Feb 17, 2016 8:05 pm

Wow! What a difference a day makes. Annie Power now favourite for the Champion Hurdle following Faugheen's withdrawal. :shock:

The market looks ridiculous to me. Don't know the exact overround but the market looks over compressed to me. I understand it's NRNB and Annie Power is not yet been supplemented but all the rivals look priced as though she isn't going to run. If AP runs then surely they will have to push out prices on the other horses to offer more value. If she doesn't run then I can't see the prices shorten too much (bar Ruby's ride) after the overreaction today!

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Postby jumptoit » Wed Feb 17, 2016 9:10 pm

Absolute bombshell
It feels like someone has put a brick through my front window and then put another on through the back window as I look to see what has happened at the front

Never known such a volatile change in so many markets caused by one horse


I feel sick off to bed to sleep on it
My yearly Cheltenham retirement accas are gone again

Back to the drawing board

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Annie Power Exchange Price?!

Postby PMezzy » Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:28 am

After Faugheen was declared unfit for the Festival and Annie Power walked her race this morning, most bookies instantly quoted her 2/1 for the Champion Hurdle and the Betfair exchange was suspended. Mullins then gave a post race interview strongly suggesting that she would run in the Champion and the Exchange opened with her at 5.5. I thought this was far too big given Mullins' interview so snapped up as much as i could above 5 and then laid it at 3.9 half an hour later. I went back to check the price just now on the Exchange and she is out to 6! I can't find any news to suggest why she's now less likely to run in the Champion; bookies are still offering big prices for her in the Mares, which ISNT NRNB - suggesting she WONT run, and still make Thistlecrack Fav for the World.

What are the reasons/are there reasons to now think she WONT run in the Champion? I personally think she'll win any three of those races and so if there's no news I'll take some 5s on the exchange.

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Re: Annie Power Exchange Price?!

Postby Derbz87 » Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:11 am

@PMezzy
The doubts probably stem from the fact that until the suplementing stage which is about a week before the race she's technically not even in the picture. The more I think about it now I think the bookies have overreacted on AP nowhere in Mullins interview did he categorically say she'd run he said it was an option and looking at Racing Post this morning theres a lot of doubt over who Ruby would ride which would be as big a pointer as any and indeed whether he thinks she'll run! I've got a sneaky feeling the only horse who's beaten Faugheen is the biggest beneficiary of this whole scenario in terms of how the race might unfold, pretty much uncontested lead from the front which he loves, undoubted ability, he seems to be the underestimated horse of Mullin's trio at the prices.

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Postby bishbosh » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:30 am

After the initial disappointment of the machines withdrawal I was thinking this is now a weak race for a championship and I guess that\'s down to in how much high regard we hold Faugheen.

Looking at the value now and something a bit left field as nothing has impressed me this season .

Very disappointed with the way the new one has gone backwards IMO so maybe the winner hasn\'t been seen this season yet .... Step forward MTOY at the weekend!!

Maybe a fine run will cut the price so I\'m getting involved now before the price gets any shorter.

If MTOY does not run well on Saturday I can\'t see him making Cheltenham so it\'s a worthwhile punt now as we know the price will shorten .
If I study and fail so be it
But to not study is like opening your window and throwing your money out hoping the wind brings it back in

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Postby evertoncal » Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:50 am

My Tent Or Yours and The New One have zero chance. You just don't come back and win unless you are absurdly good like Hurricane Fly who won a weak contest anyway.

It's between the Mullins 3 for me in Annie Power, Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon.

Nichols Canyon will make it a test and will love a soft ground Cheltenham but but unless that happens he only has place claims in my opinion. He's an awkward jumper, an awkward galloper but he'll probably place as he'll grind himself from the front but doesn't possess the speed to win.

Arctic Fire and Annie Power both have gears, they both jump well and will enjoy better ground. Arctic Fire really impressed me early season when he won a Grade 1 but he's lost his way since due to an infection. He was minded last time out and he'll improve for that run. He'll be bang there at the end but it might be the weight that swings it for Annie Power with the 7lb allowance, only negative for me with her is her interrupted preparation.

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Postby Gman84 » Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:00 pm

I've done a blog with my more detailed thoughts on how the dust has settled from the Faugheen withdrawal. Feel free to check it out clicking on the link below:

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410744

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Postby BadReligion » Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:30 am

Absolute bombshell
It feels like someone has put a brick through my front window and then put another on through the back window as I look to see what has happened at the front

Never known such a volatile change in so many markets caused by one horse

I feel sick off to bed to sleep on it
My yearly Cheltenham retirement accas are gone again

Back to the drawing board
Me too. My banker and had him in multiples. All he had to do was jog around. That's gambling I suppose.

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Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:29 pm

Henderson confirms he runs 5 in the Champion Hurdle!!!

Sportinglife audio

https://soundcloud.com/sportinglife/nic ... on-audio-1

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