Your Cheltenham Approach

nors
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Postby nors » Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:09 am

Those going to the Festival i would suggest you have your main selections sorted out by Midday, the hurly burly of the Festival are not conducive to form study at the track.

Those going to the pub to watch the races i would suggest the same, alcohol can make any horse look like a world beater.

Those at home and not working (and not drinking at home) are more able to place later bets where the market can be noted.

Look out for the away meetings during the 4 days where you can get a trainer with runners at the Festival looking to put a decent horse in a terrible race. Look out for these at the 5 days dec stage.

Any member who makes a profit over the 4 days should be very pleased with themselves.

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Postby tbuckley » Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:40 pm

Very interesting idea and great reading people's approaches to the festival.

here is my attempt at answering the questions posted :-

1. Choose and arrive at your selections?

I choose my selections by watching as much as I can and then seeing how the form works out, often that means I'll be backing the fancied horses but I have no problem backing the fancied ones because their form is the best on offer and the form often stands up, you don't get too many shocks in the big races at Cheltenham.

Of course like everybody else I hope to be able to spot a few 'dark horses' and get on early at big prices until the world finally wakes up to them, often top class trainers who don't get the media coverage that their work and results deserve ie Henry De Bromhead and his horses, this season that's Identity Thief in a tiny bet at 40/1 and others at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 etc and Supasundae at 25/1, all their form lines entitle them to be a lot shorter and make their current prices look value, of course time will tell on that.

for those interested I've featured a few of my multiples in a blog :-

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410730


I also like to look at other factors such as historical results & SP of past winners, nothing is ever guaranteed of course but looking at such things can highlight trends in certain races and things to watch out for, again I've done a blog covering my look at a selection of Festival races from SP winners perspective :-

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410820



2. Get your bets on? - I put a few very small stakes ante-post singles & multiples on early, both in shop and on-line throughout the season when I think something is the right price and will most probably shorten, then when it gets closer to the festival I'll put a few more on, often a selection of very small stakes multiples & e/w accas covering a couple of contenders from a selection of races

3. Watch the races?

this year my Cheltenham Festival will be split into two separate formats, first two days I'll be at work in the bookies from early morning until the end and so I'll get to witness the festival from the other side of the counter and watch all the races from there, obviously I'll be working and no doubt it will be chaos before racing starts as people get their bets but it won't feel like work when the races are on.

I'm off work for the Thursday and Friday of the festival so I'll strictly be a punter & viewer, on the Thursday I'll simply be at home watching, Friday I'm planning to be in the pub watching Gold Cup day enjoying a few pints of Guinness, it's a formula that has worked very well in the past and I've every faith it will do so again!!! :lol:

4. Check the results?

as stated I'll know all the results as they happen as I'll be watching it all live


that's what I'll be doing and can't wait for it to start, I've got Saturday, Sunday and Monday off work to enjoy a nice little break before the madness starts!!!
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Postby millersteve » Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:25 am

I’ve been reading this thread over last couple of days after a mixed Cheltenham but certainly not disastrous. However I do think my approach requires developing somewhat and becoming more focussed towards ante post betting.
So I’ve decided to start making detailed notes throughout the season on horses likely to be at the festival and whilst doing so identify and place bets on them. Be prepared to have two or three selections in same race if the value is available, especially if they suit the nature of the race as highlighted by the Weatherbys trends book.
What I will be looking for is how the horse runs, is it a galloper, does it travel well or how does it respond and jump under pressure. Also keeping an eye on how the form of the key races develops. This approach will make me focus more on Irish racing and get better at race reading, which is something I need to improve on a lot.
So any advice would be welcome but not wanting to clog up this thread please respond via PM .

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Shrews » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:10 pm

Love this thread and very important it doesn't get lost as there's lots of good information and links to start looking at. As the grey matter starts to look towards March it's time to start taking a proper look.

As always, it'll all go so quick!

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby nors » Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:04 pm

Lets have your 2017 approach especially:

1. Those members who posted last year and have made some changes to their approach.
2. New members to olbg.
3. Members who tip on horses but haven't added their approach.

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby The Market Man » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:18 pm

I've placed fewer bets so far this year, mostly due to the landscape of the first two days being so unclear as we move into February. For example, the Neptune trial was a two horse race for me last year. Looking at this year's card, there's five or six i think could win it.

I'm expecting to be in a position in late February / early March where the preview nights will have a more significant impact than usual, so i'm holding back on some bets.

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby tinogolg » Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:10 pm

I experienced Cheltenham for the first time last year and it was an amazing experience, allbeit a little bit hectic.

Unfortunately, I don't get to go to Cheltenham, or stay at home, or even go to the pub. In fact most of the time I'll be at work trying to hide my betting activity on the screen haha.

I'll be more of a punter this year and following some tips from this site but last year my approach was mainly how to make the most out of the festival from a matched betting perspective

I wrote a guide to this year's festival for matched bettors but think that a lot of the advice remains the same for normal punters:

- Go with a plan of what you are going to do and have a strategy in place
- Research your runners and riders well in advance
- Set your limits
- Relax and take a measured approach
- Have fun!

There’s so much going on that it will be a hectic few days so having a plan of attack will really help you.

Glad I found this site anyway as I think i'll be following a lot of the tips and mixing this with a bit of matched betting to get the biggest benefit,

Tino

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby nors » Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:40 pm

Welcome tinogolg to OLBG we hope you will join in the discussion on the forum, especially the Cheltenham forum.

As a new member we prefer no links to be added.

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby tinogolg » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:41 pm

No problems, loving the site though!

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Guddah » Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Cheltenham set up

Have been several times with many good experiences and one bad one
Good experiences were the many good horses I got to see the highlight being Desert Orchid winning the Gold Cup
Bad one was my best mate being pick pocketed. We all backed Kibrinsis and they had his winnings plus his bank,over £900 seconds after being paid out IF YOU GO YOU MUST BE SUPER CAREFUL WITH YOUR CASH - SADLY DUE TO THE LARGE CROWDS IT IS A PICK POCKETS PARADISE - FIRST RACE WHEN MY MATE GOT DONE AND WHEN HE WENT TO REPORT THE THEFT THIRTY PEOPLE IN THE QUQUE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT.
Three reasons why I no longer go, too crowded,bad experience logged above and the costs
By the time I added up costs of petrol tickets and hotel bill it gives me a nice little betting bank,so have settled for this for the last several years

I go to my local which is two hundred yards up the road
Eight TVS including large screen
Puts on a spread on all four days
Usually a concession on the beer
Big pub so it doesn't get overcrowded
Internet makes betting easy

Don't bet antipost unless NRNB-
Always get timeform for this meeting- race cards and HORSES TO FOLLOW EXTRA
For me you need to split your betting into handicaps and non handicaps
Use the horses to follow extra for non handicaps- at the summary usually about six horses having the best chance and high percentage of winners given especially with reasonable ground. Handicaps very much harder and I use the daily cards as the information given is much more detailed

Highlight of the winter- good luck to everyone whether or not they go to the meeting :win:

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Zipster » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:49 pm

1. Choose and arrive at your selections?

I have never been an ante-post type of person, I need to know the final field and conditions before even thinking about make a selection, so it will be the night before of the morning of the race that I will first look at a race, with these types of festivals I will look at numerous factors when considering a selection, it may be a combination of trends and my personal ratings to narrow the field down and then I will go on to look at form etc. For the past few years I have taken a different approach to handicap on the final 2 days which seems to have worked out well, I will go back over the first two days and look at the handicaps and look at the OR ranges which have produced winners/places and the same for weights and use these for the final two days, has worked out very well.

2. Get your bets on?

I have never been one for big festivals, those who see my tipping will notice that the majority of my tips will come in low class races because I tend to fare better in those and my stakes at large festivals like this will be kept to a minimum, I am able to read the lower class races much better than the big races! Bets are usually placed on the day the morning of the meetings online.

3. Watch the races?

This will be done via Racing UK, there is nothing better than Racing UK for me during the Cheltenham festival (Of course in between working :wink: )

4. Check the results?

Hopefully I will know the results from watching the races! Although I do tend to go back over every race in the evening watching replays which are freely available on the The Jockey Club website.
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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby monkeytennis » Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:38 pm

As a flat punter who has relatively limited knowledge of the jumps game I always place my bets the night before the races (as I do with the flat). I find that the odds have usually crumbled by the time the morning comes with my flat bets but the Cheltenham markets are so strong and there is so much competition for bets that I usually find the odds have drifted on pretty much everything by the morning so this year I'll most likely wait a bit longer.

In terms of making my selections I tend to go with safer bets at Cheltenham. That's not short priced selections but those that I think are guaranteed to give their running. Course form an absolute must, Festival form a bonus. I try not to get too involved in the handicaps (unlike I would with the flat) and concentrate more on the races that have 12 runners or less. They are hard enough as it is!

As for watching the races, I'll generally try and catch most of them live on Racing UK or Channel 4.

Cheltenham and Aintree are pretty much the only races over obstacles that I watch They are absolutely amazing spectacles but I'm just a much better punter on the flat so for betting purposes I'm 'on a diet' during the two big Festivals.

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