Your Cheltenham Approach

nors
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Postby nors » Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:40 am

Do any members have a betting bank set aside for Cheltenham?

I generally concentrate on handicaps and ignore the favs in nearly all races.

There will be around 10 handicaps and those will be the races i predominately bet in.

The Championship race i have done best in over the years is the Queen Mother Champion Chase as this tends to be easier to work out. (2 favs in the last 5 years, biggest priced winner was Sizing Europe at 10/1 )

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Postby Gman84 » Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:53 am

Do any members have a betting bank set aside for Cheltenham?

I generally concentrate on handicaps and ignore the favs in nearly all races.

There will be around 10 handicaps and those will be the races i predominately bet in.

The Championship race i have done best in over the years is the Queen Mother Champion Chase as this tends to be easier to work out. (2 favs in the last 5 years, biggest priced winner was Sizing Europe at 10/1 )
As mentioned before I nibble away during the season so that I have a pot already going on ante post before the festival even starts. I'll generally have invested a bit more in the races that have gone NRNB early and some of those will just result in refunds (Vroom Vroom Mag has been backed in the World Hurdle and Ryanair for example I might get both back or just one) and I've got a few small stakes bets at nice prices on a few others. I've also got a couple of Lucky 15's on but I'll also have a couple of my ante post bets go down as they don't run (More Of That in the RSA could burn me).

I don't touch the handicaps until the day as they tend to be more competitive and the fields less known until nearer the time as well as the weight information not known until nearer the time.

I'm lucky this year in that I work 4 on 4 off and my 4 off are Tuesday to Friday right in line with the festival so I've not had to burn any hols. It's also payday on the 15th for me and March is bonus month - that's my pot sorted (once the wife and kids have had their pound of flesh!). So for me I've done my "saving" in ante post bets and I've got my pot for the week sorted by a bit of luck with how I'm payed.
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nors
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Postby nors » Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:07 am

If you divide the amount of money you have available by the 4 days and maybe rate your bets by how confident you are on each one.

BTW if members keep a spreadsheet over the 4 days apart from it being good analysis for yourselves, we could maybe feature a couple on community news or the forum. (Not just winning spreadsheets either)

I will keep one and see how I get on.

Many members can also download your tip history after the 4 days from your tipping page.

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Postby nors » Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:12 am

I spent around 3 hours going thru the form of one race last night. I am only concentrating on the handicaps in 2016 , and RELYING ON OTHER MEMBERS winning bets in the other races. So with 10 handicaps it will take me to the eve of the Festival to dissect all the races.

I am going to back around 30 horses over all the handicaps and would hope for 1 winner and maybe a few placed to gain a small profit at the Festival. The prices should be good enough to achieve this

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Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:07 pm

I spent around 3 hours going thru the form of one race last night. I am only concentrating on the handicaps in 2016 , and RELYING ON OTHER MEMBERS winning bets in the other races. So with 10 handicaps it will take me to the eve of the Festival to dissect all the races.

I am going to back around 30 horses over all the handicaps and would hope for 1 winner and maybe a few placed to gain a small profit at the Festival. The prices should be good enough to achieve this
You have a PM, Nors.


I'm doing a thread for the Handicaps for any French or Irish horses which may be less well known to OLBG members,

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Postby deswalker » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:22 pm

Good discussion of approach to betting at Cheltenham on the Final Furlong Podcast this week.

Basically the thrust is to wait as late as possible to bet at this stage, particularly on the handicaps, as there will be loads of offers flying around including extra places for EW betting on the handicaps.

:win:
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Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:37 pm

Good discussion of approach to betting at Cheltenham on the Final Furlong Podcast this week.

Basically the thrust is to wait as late as possible to bet at this stage, particularly on the handicaps, as there will be loads of offers flying around including extra places for EW betting on the handicaps.

:win:
I'm halfway through that Podcast ( there's an awful lot of waffle and pointless banter during the first 45 minutes - Boycie can hardly get a word in ! :P ) and i agree in principal but i think people should back a horse now if they think it might shorten up should it be guaranteed a run in a certain race - if a horse has multiple entries and is currently 36th on the list of it's most suitable target. Once confirmed for that race, it's price is likely to shorten ( particularly if with a well known or well punted stable ) . 25s now might be 16s in ten days time.

However, most of the time it will be best to wait

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Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:48 pm

Just two quick thoughts

1 ) Anyone studying a race might want to read it's Wikipedia entry which also offers a direct link to each Racing Post result at the bottom of the page beneath the list of previous winners. Makes studying easier. Also sometimes has trainer quotes.

2 ) The Jockey Club website video section offers free replays of races from their courses, ideal for those without a Racing UK or Skybet subscription who want to watch previous races, particularly Cheltenham.
Right click on the embedded video, select " View Video " from the drop down menu and you can now watch the race preview including betting, horses going down etc the race itself and also the immediate reaction from the RUK guys.

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Postby deswalker » Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:43 pm

Channing is the absolute gold on there, although they are all worth listening to in some respect. Someone who actually makes his living doing this though...
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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Postby Puttingtheworkin » Sun Mar 06, 2016 3:21 am

I will not get suckered into all these offers, especially after the Sprinter Sacre even money fiasco a couple of seasons ago, when it took the bookies to pay out a small dividend of £40 nearly six weeks and ended up costing them a £50 free bet for me.

My strategy is to pick 2 a day that I feel cannot be beaten, easy said than done, so i will get stuck in to Douvan and Nicholas Canyon on day 1 and see where we go from there, potentially in profit on day 1 i will play with my starting bank which is usually around £100 a day.

Good Luck all

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:06 am

nors
Do any members have a betting bank set aside for Cheltenham?
Answer is yes.
My approach is..
1: DO NOT: back on all the races.Now its 4 days and not 3 days now..
So got a budget set up for the four days- and making it last..
( As bit busy last year- did nt see many races but hope to watch many
this year- but not betting on every race, as bookies likes those ones..)
2: JUST BACK: the best top races, such as Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle
And the Muir one- for got what that one called now.
Seeing a young contender for future Gold Cup- if that's the race??
3: DO NOT: Back in big fields over 20 + runners, ( except just try one
and see if our horse selected comes in!! )
16 runners fields is my maxium i mostly bet on..
4: Also this year not got any Ante Posts bet, as know just bet nearer
the day...
At last Cheltenham nearly here again :) well think missed most off races
last year, so it feels longer than a year..
Also my method right word looking for!! is to bet sensibly :yes:
And enjoy the lovely week, and have fun..

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Postby deswalker » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:21 am

My approach is to have a few bets that I fancy strongly in the conditions races and go in hard on those, usually 3 or 4 for the whole meeting, although could be more or less depending on how things work out.

For these bets I'll be looking for form first, but nicely backed up by key statistics, and as ever looking for prices that seem wrong and certainly taking advantage of preferential each-way terms, etc.

In addition to these though, I will have a bet of some sort in basically every race that I have the time to go through. This is the best racing of the calendar, the bookies are basically running to a sliver over 100% books, and all the majors are falling over themselves to give offers, so even if you are just having a bit on the second favourite EW at the best price available against a short favourite, you are pretty unlikely not to be getting a little slice of value.

There will usually be one or two at huge prices that I dig out in the handicaps and I might have a decent bet on a couple of these... fond memories of Son Of Flicka... when they come off, they are quite something!

All the best everyone, gearing up now and getting some fancies sorted out!

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