Your Cheltenham Approach

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby tbuckley » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:32 am

Forgot to mention that I do actually use my brains a bit & do put some study in, :P

including looking at the SP's of previous winners of races

my blog looks at the SP of winners from a selection of Festival races from the last 12 years, I've done that kind of study for last few years and it's definitely helped highlight some useful trends and paid off via helping me spot certain races to aim at with certain bets.
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby stopwatchracing » Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:48 pm

Day 1 Cheltenham Selections. Decided to get these out early as I’ve put the finishing touches to my own selections and (perhaps foolishly) I don’t expect much to change between now and Tuesday. What I do expect to change is their prices (i.e. I think just about all of them will go off shorter than currently available) so would advise getting on now.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle [Melon] – The best moment of the year is when the tapes go up at 1.30 on Tuesday.

Melon has been, arguably, the hype horse of the entire season and, like all fashionable things, he has his fair share of those who wish to take him on. That has pleased me immensely as it makes for a more generous price than would otherwise be likely for a Mullins/Walsh hype machine.

To take you through my rationale. Saturnas and Neon Wolf top my speed figures. Saturnas is injured. Neon Wolf almost certainly goes Neptune. Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes both put up excellent speed figure performances in the Betfair but that was one of the only championship pace races so it can be expected. Ballyandy is short enough now, he jumps patchily and Nigel Twiston Davies is looking out of form. Movewithetimes would have been a bet at the 25/1 available after the Betfair but I’m against him as he’s still very green and raw and I’m convinced something would outbattle him as he looked to dog the finish in the Betfair. He remains a horse of huge potential for the future.

Crack Mome looks a brilliant 1 mile 7 horse, will undoubtedly travel well but is never weaker than toward the finish and will be outstayed. Charli Parcs goes Triumph, Moon Racer is going Champion Hurdle and Beyond Conceit looks likely to go to the Neptune (based on the betting). River Wylde is interesting @ 12/1. Bunk Off Early will be suited by the strong pace but he wasn’t brilliant on the clock latest and is short enough now.

Which leaves Melon. I rated him 145 on his debut performance – the best debut performance of the season. He’s had additional experience in schooling races so that doesn’t worry me. He jumped well in the main, travelled powerfully and will be suited by the test at Cheltenham. He’s the best work horse at home by a fair margin, which is saying something when you have speedy horses like Bunk Off Early and Crack Mome to test him. He has the best jockey on the world on-board (presumably). You can expect a big plunge on the day and, whilst he’s not as short as Douvan, Min or Vautour, the vibes have been strong from Cloisutton. Above all, he remains a horse of huge potential and I think he’ll improve past all of these and win.

I have backed Beyond Conceit at silly prices (not NRNB unfortunately) and Charli Parcs (NRNB). The only other horse which would interest me is River Wylde who put up a 143 speed figure, has Nico jocked up and should run well.

Arkle Chase [Forest Bihan w/o Altior] – Altior should win this. Simple as that. He’s a stone clear on my figures. Only (slight) concern is his jumping which isn’t particularly efficient, but it shouldn’t stop him.

Charbel is 2nd top rated on my figures but is likely to lead and I worry he’ll do himself no favours by taking on Altior for the win. I would stick with something which will be held up and ridden to pick up the pieces. Forest Bihan fits that profile and has put up a speed figure in the mid 140’s. He’s currently 8/1 with Paddy Power and that looks an appealing price.

Ultima Handicap Chase [SinglefarmPayment] – With Champers on Ice going for the 4 miler, my only bet in this is SingleFarmPayment. His penultimate start saw him clock a speed figure of 150, 8 pounds higher than his official rating of 142. He would have won last time out (a big claim I know) given how well he travelled through the race and the moderate speed figure by Royal Vacation. I’m glad he didn’t as he’s on a lovely mark and weight for this. He’s a slick jumper, a powerful traveller through a race and will be able to settle quietly at the back of a strong pace and be brought steadily through the field. He’s not the strongest stayer but I think he’ll be swinging on the bridle as they turn for home and his jumping is a big asset too. I can see there being a big plunge on him on the day, so take the 8/1 each way now and he’ll do us proud.

Champion Hurdle [Yanworth] – Has been the subject of plenty of support in the last few days. I backed him at 7/1 after the Wincanton win (*cough Aftertime Ansell cough*) as he again put up a very good speed figure to win that race. He’s top of my figures on 162, has repeatedly put up the best numbers of the season on the clock and Tuesday’s race is ideal for him. Yes he jumps poorly. That’s the big concern. But he’s actually a very powerful traveller through a race and, although he usually hits a flat spot 3 furlongs out, the Champion Hurdle will be so strongly run this year with Petit Mouchoir and The New One, that horses won’t need to quicken so much as decelerate as they battle up the hill. He has stamina in abundance and I think he’ll power clear on the run-in to win well. He’s my banker of the day and I’ll be sick if he’s beat.

With the ground drying up, Sceau Royal (who’ll have conditions ideal and the race to suit) is worth a dabble at 40 on Betfair. I can see him sneaking into a place.

Mares Hurdle [Limini] – I fancied Limini for the Champion Hurdle but she’s been redirected here instead. She’s a powerful traveller through a race, a good jumper (based on her seasonal reappearance) and should be ridden quietly in mid-division for a turn of foot. Her speed figure at Leopardstown was an excellent performance (154) and only Apples Jade can hope to touch her on the basis of that. The only English horse whose run within a stone of that is Colins Sister. Apples Jade is tough, a battler and will stay the trip better than Limini, but Ruby is a master of efficient race riding and I work expect her to be produced with a deadly turn of foot to do Apples Jade for gears. 3.5 on Betfair is tasty.

National Hunt Chase [Champers on Ice] – I backed Champers @ 25/1 for the Ultima, but this looks to be his target. He ran a huge race behind American at Warwick (I rated American 160 and Champers 150). He’s a big slow horse, who doesn’t jump brilliantly, but has a massive engine and should find them going a pace within his comfort zone here. He’ll have one of the best amateurs on board and I would expect him to go very close if repeating that run behind American, which is some of the best 3 mile novice form on offer.

Close Brothers Novices’ Chase [Romaine De Senam] – Caught my eye on his debut 2nd behind Top Notch (who’s gone on to better things). 137 looks 7 or 8 pounds well in on the basis of that. This horse jumps and travels well through a race, and should find the pace at 2 miles 4 within his comfort zone. He could be outstayed, but looks just about the best handicapped horse in the race and is a worthy favourite.

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Shrews » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:55 pm

As said on the 9th January last year, this thread is gold and shouldn't be lost. It soon comes, it soon goes, make the most of every moment between now and then I say.

So, any newcomers out there want to talk us through their Cheltenham rituals?

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Gman84 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:05 pm

Just regarding what I wrote last year - I've definitely not gone as hard in the antepost markets. Partly because this seems to be a year where thereis a lot more doubt about certain horses running in which races but also because some bookmakers have gone NRNB exceptionally early and frankly, spoiled the antepost market.

Of course it's nice to have that assurance on your dosh back if your horse doesn't run (although you'll have to wait until March to get it so in effect the firm holds your money and it's in their pocket keeping their turnover figures churning over) but when there is massive differences in prices you can see how much the value has been ebbed away by the NRNB concession.

As pointed out by others, the amount of offers on the days or nearer the time means you are well to save your betting bank up and go to war that week with as much knowledge as possible, as many helpful offers as possible and with no prior commitments possibly clouding your judgement.

As I say all that I have struck some antepost bets but only on a couple of horses that I feel will be significantly shorter on the day if circumstances help their cause.

If Road To Respect wins or runs a solid race in the Irish Gold Cup I think his price will come in considerably and he could even be close to favouritism on the day. Of course he might flop but then that could see a change of target (Ryanair?) or maybe even a bypass of the festival. Worse case scenerio is he stays on target for the Gold Cup at a bigger price than I've taken.

I still think Special Tiara's form in the QMCC is more worthy of a better price than 20/1 and if the main market principles don't turn up - which isn't impossible - I think that price will be halved.

As with all antepost bets there is risk and reward and at the stakes I play at, I'm not going to be burned too harshly if I've landed on the wrong side of the coin. But again, I do think NRNB and the firms desperation to have Cheltenham in punters minds is killing the antepost market.
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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby Arc Jimmy » Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:38 pm

Have only backed 2 ante post this year.

I tend to watch the weather forecast Sunday before meeting starts & make few more choices then albeit lots of value has gone by then really early ante post picks are somewhat of a stab in the dark with horses declared in multiple races.

Gold Cup 2 years ago the weather forecast a dry week, I was straight on Don Cossack at 9/2 think he returned at 9/4 , it was a blooming cold day though, I couldn't feel my toes from Race 2 & there was even a streaker.

Gut feeling another & trainers coming into form prior to the meeting, if Cheltenham was the week coming up I'd be looking at P
Nicholls & C. Tizzard horses this side of the pond.

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Re: Your Cheltenham Approach

Postby toadie21 » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:56 pm

a nice thread to reread in the build up to Cheltenham and it’s nice to see if my own approach has changed.
I haven’t placed a antepost bet this year and my plan is to do a week long e/w heinz on the Monday before the festival and then split my budget into 4 for each day.
I do have 3 days off work and will be begging the boss for an early finish on the 4th day so hopefully can watch all the races at home.
I will probably have a walk to the bookies and put in a place pot but main bets will be placed online securing bestodds and may even go in the night before.
As for research I’ll be using my trends bible and some of the trends blogs on here, looking for the toilettips and over nuggets of advice from here and the main thing is rewatching last years festival to refresh the memory.
BOL gang and have a great Cheltenham

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