Byrne Group Plate - Thursday 12th March (Day 3)

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Byrne Group Plate - Thursday 12th March (Day 3)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:53 am


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Postby Sticky99 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:25 pm

Buywise looks interesting in this. He's got four entries at the festival, couple over fences (3m handicap on Tues and this) and a couple over hurdles (Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe) although this looks the most suitable target.

Ran in the 2m4f novice race last year finishing 5th off 134 (7L behind Present View) after jumping poorly at the 3rd and 2nd last before bounding on up the hill. Ran again at Cheltenham in April winning a Grade 2 handicap easily off of the same mark. Ran in the Paddy Power at the start of the season finishing 5th off 146 (3 1/4L behind Caid Du Berlais) again staying on well up the run in. Ran in a novice hurdle over February to freshen up before the festival and protect his chase mark. Evan Williams thinks his best form is at 2 1/2m so assume this would be the target.

Currently 12/1 :hope:

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Postby BarloTheFox » Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:42 am

His course form gives him a chance however I would be concerned that his current mark of 146 is too high based on his 5th place in PP off the same mark.

This is a race won typically by a "very well in" horse which I don't think Buywise is, I think he is on his correct mark and I don't think a horse can win a race like this when weighted to their best.

I look at the race 2 ways, young up and coming horses that are ahead of the handicapper and older horses that have been given a chance. On this basis my 3 against the field are:

Blood Cotil: Unexposed and may have slipped under the radar (has alternate engagements)
Taquin De Seuil - JLT winner last season, disappointed this year but has clearly been running over too far a trip. dropped 5lb since last run and if JO decides handicap route and back to optimum trip could be well in and has valuable course / fest form.
Champion Court - Still only 10 and older horses have good record in this race. Now off a mark of 141 having been as high as 157, which is the mark he ran off when finishing 7th in this race last year.

With Blood Cotil just as likely to run in the Grand Annual and TDS the Ryanair (ever more likely with recent defections) I would be most interested in CC and currently available at 25's

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Postby benucci » Thu Mar 12, 2015 3:52 pm

It might be that Hollow Penny isnt that well handicapped, but 44/1 and the form of his Group runs works out very well Irish Saint ran well here in Chelt, Southfield Theatre aswell and Horizontal aswell. I would be angry if this rans a good race and i missed, but can also flop. Nevertheless a small Each Way at 40/1 Hollow Penny

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