JLT Novices Chase - Thursday 12th March (Day 3)

Brownie3
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JLT Novices Chase - Thursday 12th March (Day 3)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:51 am

Thoughts...

DannyCraig
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Postby DannyCraig » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:41 pm

Looking likely to be a very strongly competitive race this time round, with Ptit Zig & Valseur Lido 100% lining up, with the possibility of also seeing Vautour in the mix too.

I've decided to back Valseur Lido in this one, as I feel his performance in the Drinmore where he finished 8 lengths clear of Apache Stronghold who then ran Don Poli to only 3lengths over 3miles, looks to be the strongest piece of form available for this race so far. You've also got the added bonus of knowing that if Vautour doesn't run in this race, this price should be closer to the 5/2 mark so finding a touch of value 8 weeks away can still be possible.

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Postby The Market Man » Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:17 pm

Ptit Zig has been the best novice chaser this season ( along with King's Palace ) and goes there with outstanding claims - the only negative for me being Nicholls Festival chase stats in recent years but that surely has to change some time.

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Postby larker92 » Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:32 pm

Ptit Zig has been the most consistent and fluent of these novice chasers so far this season, Valseur Lido ran a cracker last time out and he shaped as if a spin around cheltenham may tidy him up a bit.However, I think Gilgamboa could be a value horse at 8/1 in the current market, didn't quite cut it over hurdles at the higher level but looks like a progressive chaser who could run a stormer come march. I feel Ptit Zig needs the race to be run a certain way at this trip and will be suited by further next season (RSA or even GC). VL may have shown his hand and i don't see him as progressive as Gilgamboa from the evidence at hand.

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Postby benucci » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:19 pm

On form Vautour, Apache Stronghold, Ptit Zig, Valseur Lido and The Tullow Tank ( over hurdles) there isnt much between them.

Apache Stronghold beaten by Vautour being fit and Vautour having its last run of the season after his Cheltenham romp, so its possible that this form goes more into favour of Vautour tommorrow. Ptit Zig beat Josses Hill over fences and so did Vautour over hurdles, Vautours win did look more impressive though and Ptit Zig faced a Josses Hill making errors and playing catch up. Valseur Lido closely matched to Apache Stronghold from lto which was a very tough race 30 days ago which might be not ideal for AS, VL and the TT imo. Vautour entered in a weak race lto but jumped well and i like his preparation most to be top fit for tommorrow and if he arrives at the same form as last years festival, i feel the other might try to stay on but he will stay on and push out to win with a few length.

Vautour 2/1 Each Way

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Postby jpaul71 » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:29 pm

This one is fairly easy for me. Ptit Zig has always been one of Paul Nicholls favourite prospects with regards to chasers. He was 3rd in a Fred Winter and 6th in a Champion Hurdle but has always been thought of as a chaser by his trainer. He is 4lbs and 5lbs clear on OR and RPR. Patrick Mullins said that Vautour had cuts and bruises from travelling over mostly around the head but you'd think that woudn't be ideal for the horse and he is a very short price based on that and his actual chasing form which is no better (at best) than the other three principles. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet for your win part of the bet if finishing 2nd or 3rd and are top priced at 9-2 and that makes Ptit Zig a 5pts EW bet for me (5pts returned if he finishes 2nd or 3rd). The fall last time is a small concern but it wasn't a terrible error and he can learn from it. Paul Nicholls had a great Wednesday so the stable is doing well. His form with Josses Hill giving 4lbs and a 9L beating reads well enough given the Arkle run of that one. Bar a mistake you'd hope he could be good enough to finish in the first three as it would look on paper he has the three around him in the betting to beat and some doubt around the fav even if the market is not reflecting that.

Oh and just for good measure he has course and distance form over the chase course here on the New Course at Cheltenham along with not bad 2 * festival form.

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