Queen Mother Champion Chase - Wednesday 11th March (Day 2)

pokerslut
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Postby pokerslut » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:23 pm

Thought the 6s was very generous (8s for a while) as when he fell he was still very full of running. Happy to be on pre race today and hopefully he\'ll do the business again this year.

I think Sprinter Sacre has his best days behind him and I think Champagne Fever if on form will be there at the end.

InsideMan
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Postby InsideMan » Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:07 am

Keep going around in circles looking at this race

One minute I think Sprinter Sacre is the one to be on with possible improvement to come from his last run behind Dodging Bullets.

But then I look at Champagne Fever's record at Cheltenham and he obviously loves the place. Arkle Winners have a good record in this race, a very good record actually something like 7 of the last 14 have won and all of the 14 have placed, but he didn't win the Arkle did he? He was very unlucky to lose the race though. You have to say he is a Champion Bumper, Supreme Novice and Arkle winner in my opinion because you can't really say Western Warhorse would confirm that form again.

Then Dodging Bullets has done nothing wrong but his Cheltenham Festival form is dreadful and has he been winning the best of races, I know he beat Sprinter last time by a couple of lengths but there's going to be improvement to come from Sprinter at Cheltenham can you say the same for DB.

Sire De Grugy seems to me like the most likely winner now, I wrote him off because of his "injury" but if people look into this more like I have done you will find out that it was nothing more than a pulled muscle in human terms. What more could he have done at Chepstow really? Giving tons of weight away to some decent horses and winning like he normally does.. not in the fashion that the old Sprinter would but in good enough style, exactly how he won this race last year... they say never change your mind when betting but I think I may have to for this race. Sire De Grugy for me...

I'd love to see Sprinter win so I won't be disappointed if he does win, I may be disappointed if something else wins though. Got a strong feeling Ruby Walsh will lead and try to outstay them on CF, not sure it will work but I think CF is solid place material in this race


At the end of the day it's all about value / price. If you can get Sire De Grugy at 7/2 I think you are on to a good thing. Would probably be a lot shorter if there wasn't a big overreaction to the small injury that he had.

deswalker
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Postby deswalker » Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:27 pm

Quite some confidence coming out from the Moore yard today. :?
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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Brownie3
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Postby Brownie3 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:28 pm

Following on from the Henderson yard yesterday!

Brewing nicely!

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Postby balewonder999 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:06 pm

for me these two yards have been at it all season over this.

Both are trying to instill every bit of confidence in their horse to the general public.

Can't wait for this one really.

Gotta agree with inside man, i've looked at it, thrown it away, looked at it again and still can't come down on one in particular.

sprinter has the obvious worries, but with both nicky and bg very happy, why am i dithering over grabbing 9-4 ON ONE OF THE BEST CHASERS OF ALL TIME. Just a tad worried that his injury was worse than they anticipated and he's not the same horse. Will he really knuckle down if he has to?

Sir de grugy trainer was saying a while back that cheltenham was not his favoured track as opposed to sandown or ascot before his win last year.

He beat somersby and that's not a top top champion chase for me, but he's SURE to be in the frame really, and

Dodging Bullets and Champagne fever have not actually done a lot wrong.

Champagne had hard race against a top don cossack over further and 3m in king george on deep ground was more of what they believed he could do and it proved to be a step too far.

He has enough pace for two i would imagine at a place he adores he will run a solid race.

Db is the tingle creek winner something i'm still getting into my head, but...mr nicholls is a master and has rejuvenated this wee horse plus something went wrong with saddle in arkle i think i read somewhere.

His form this year is rock rock solid really, and most years it would make him favourite.

The rest with all due respect i know little about but you can't discount any in the novice races...

western warhorse proved that SOMEHOW

To be honest i am as still as undecided as i was at the start of the season

Time to get the pin

:hope:

Brownie3
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Postby Brownie3 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:14 pm

Spot on that, if Sprinter Hacked up, we'll all be there thinking, bloody hell, 5/2 about a high rated 191 at this best!

It's a race ive already had a bet in, like a fool I backed Sprinter at the start of the season, 5's and 4's, but I wouldn't really be getting involved if I wasn't already.

You/d need a leap of faith to back SDG or Sprinter, Dodging Bullets isn't a Cheltenham horse is he? yet he's won the 2 big 2 mile races, and then we have Champayne Fever, festival form 112, improving Mr Mole, who knows, wide, wide open.

balewonder999
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Postby balewonder999 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:49 pm

The rest with all due respect i know little about but you can't discount any in the novice races...

western warhorse proved that SOMEHOW


Sorry got races mixed up in the end.

Mean't to say you can't discount anything in a 2nd season race as they can return to form and run huge races on the day in my opinion.

Though i would have to say there are very few shocks in this race over recent years and it has paid to focus on the head of the market.

It usually takes a very good one to win this... there is no hiding place.

14 of the last 15 Arkle Trophy winners to run in this race the following year have all placed at worst, albeit the only horse to buck that trend was Simonsig as he missed the Champion Chase through injury in 2014.

Champagne virtually won it all bar the line... guess he's the bet Each Way then

:hope:

Brownie3
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Postby Brownie3 » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:37 am

Champayne Fever out!

Bitten by another horse in transit!

gruntly2006
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Postby gruntly2006 » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:46 am

fuming to wake up to the news of champagne fever out!! had over £50 on him at 8s and was confident of a big run :( now the bookies smile again as ante post bets go out the window on the day!! would like to see a bet credited but William Hill never seem to do anything to keep customers happy

pokerslut
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Postby pokerslut » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:05 pm

PP Have a good deal. Money back if 2nd to SS. Suits me as im backing SDG anyway.

benucci
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Postby benucci » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:51 pm

Personally i think Dodging Bullets last run is 5Lbs-10lbs behind Mr Moles last runs on softer ground. So i think if you take the risk that Mole a quirky horse refuses at some point or doesnt handle the ground he still is quite nice in odds as i dont have Dodging Bullets at all in the equation. To me its between Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre and Mister Mole if he handles the ground and has its day. A Place bet on Sire De Grugy would be my best advice for that race or a risky small back of Mr Mole to win imo at the good odds as he still has the best form in this season on paper if you dont take into account seasonal improvement and ground issues.

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