Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 10th March (Day 1)

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1690
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 10th March (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:42 am

Thoughts...

arniehi
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 1214
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Dominican Republic

Postby arniehi » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:56 pm

Co-favourite Douvan running at Punchestown tomorrow in the same race Vautour won en route to winning the Supreme last year. No doubt will be remarkably short but, given that Konig Dax fell apart so badly losing to Buckwheat the other day. I don't doubt he'll rout the field but also don't think it will show much considering the way L'Ami Serge won last week. I'm having difficulty based on what I've seen looking past the top two in the market for this race if I'm honest. Shaneshill has bumper form beating some good looking types and a bumper line can be drawn through Killutagh Vic. Shaneshill was turned over at 4/9 in a hurdle race but it was a good performance nonetheless and the front two (No More Heroes the other) were a distance clear. From the Punchestown Champion Bumper, Value At Risk and Jollyallan have some really good form.

I'm trying to get better at reading form, especially with Cheltenham around the corner, but do have a few issues - especially regarding novices and improvement, but that 16/1 for Shaneshill does interest me and if declared to run in a trial soon, I'd certainly look at getting something on in case he turns in an impressive performance and shortens up massively (missed the chance on L'Ami Serge).

larker92
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:01 am

Postby larker92 » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:34 pm

I agree with you that there doesnt seem to be much value in the top two in the betting. As i raised in an earlier post i think this race is wide open this season and we could have a long priced winner come the opening race of what is shaping up to be a cracking festival. I like the look of El Namoose for EW purposes but i have always been a big ferguson fan!

DannyCraig
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1470
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2012 12:00 am

Postby DannyCraig » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:10 pm

Co-favourite Douvan running at Punchestown tomorrow in the same race Vautour won en route to winning the Supreme last year. No doubt will be remarkably short but, given that Konig Dax fell apart so badly losing to Buckwheat the other day. I don't doubt he'll rout the field but also don't think it will show much considering the way L'Ami Serge won last week. I'm having difficulty based on what I've seen looking past the top two in the market for this race if I'm honest. Shaneshill has bumper form beating some good looking types and a bumper line can be drawn through Killutagh Vic. Shaneshill was turned over at 4/9 in a hurdle race but it was a good performance nonetheless and the front two (No More Heroes the other) were a distance clear. From the Punchestown Champion Bumper, Value At Risk and Jollyallan have some really good form.

I'm trying to get better at reading form, especially with Cheltenham around the corner, but do have a few issues - especially regarding novices and improvement, but that 16/1 for Shaneshill does interest me and if declared to run in a trial soon, I'd certainly look at getting something on in case he turns in an impressive performance and shortens up massively (missed the chance on L'Ami Serge).
There looks to be a distinct possibility of seeing Shaneshill line up in the Neptune. I guess after today we'll see how good Douvan really is...

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1690
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Postby Brownie3 » Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:18 am

I thought Douvan was very impressive, into 5/2, not sure what price on the day, but he'd be a solid favourite now wouldn't he?

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2671
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:50 pm

To have such a two horse market in early January is strange. If Lami Serge goes straight there then i'd be against him and i'd prefer to see another run from Douvan but then if he won that he's Evens for this.

Not sure about this yet but there could be some value on the day

TheParadeRing
2yo
Tips
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:01 am

Postby TheParadeRing » Tue Jan 13, 2015 9:18 pm

Douvan might be following the same track as Vautour last year, but is anyone else not completely convinced yet? Visually impressive, yes, but he hasn't had to work for a win yet and wasn't even nearly off the bridle on Saturday. Vautour had a tough job winning the same race last year and then went on to beat what was at the time probably thought to be a better horse in The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte, thus justifying strong favouritism in the Supreme. Douvan was extremely impressive, but does he not have a bit left to prove? We definitely can't be sure of his potential as of yet by any means. I'd hope to see him run in the Deloitte rather than go straight - from a punting perspective, the more we know the better as far as I can see.

bishbosh
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 12:00 am
Location: Birmingham

Postby bishbosh » Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:25 pm

Started looking at this race in depth but can\'t see past the front 2. Last year I was all about vatour from an early stage and you can\'t help be impressed by Douvan after Sunday . Following the same route as vatour last year but visually very impressive and toying with the opposition giving the impression a lot more to come.
Lami serge has been impressive aswell but suspect able jumping and can afford mistakes at present against lesser opposition before recovering to show great turn of foot but my thoughts are coming down to the last at cheltenham Id rather be on Douvan that looks to be able to jump under pressure and have that extra in the tank to get up the hill rather than worrying about whether serge lami will plough through the last and need to recover by which time Douvan the bird would have flown.
If I study and fail so be it
But to not study is like opening your window and throwing your money out hoping the wind brings it back in

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2671
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:41 pm

Interesting comment from Ruby about Douvan having more gears than Vautour

This race looks thin on the ground at the moment, talent wise.

InsideMan
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 9196
Joined: Sat Dec 12, 2009 12:00 am

Postby InsideMan » Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:27 pm

One thing I'll say about Douvan is you shouldn't get carried away by the market hype in the Supreme Novices.

Favs have a poor record in this race, every year Paddy Power give punters their money back if the fav wins or similar this is because they know it is a race that favs have a dreadful record in.

I personally think the bookies have overreacted to Douvan's win recently, this is the hype horse for the race and I believe it will get sunk , or at least I will let it win at the price because everyone will be backing this one and I don't believe it's a 5/2 chance myself, likely to be a lot shorter on the day too

I understand it visually was very impressive but what did it beat, nothing. He beat a bunch of donkeys (impressively) in my opinion

Also the bookies are not stupid they know that everyone will think of Vautour when they are backing this horse, everyone will believe it is an easy banker for the Supreme but it will most likely get sunk



Not many people will agree with this but this is what I believe and we all have opinions. Personally what I've learnt about this race is to avoid the fav at all costs

DaveTehTipst0r
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 4562
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool

Postby DaveTehTipst0r » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:58 pm

Douvan looked visually impressive but not sure what trees hes beaten to be honest.. however, L'ami Sarge was ultra impressive in his work this year and id be fancying him at the moment, long way to go!

billstraighten
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:00 pm

Postby billstraighten » Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:38 am

Just to put things in perspective before you back douvan.

A horse called vatour absolutely hosed up in this last year.

He had won the race douvan had won AND had a grade 1 under his belt
On the day he was 4/1 and 5/1 in some places.

Now douvan hasn't the G1 win and is half the price.

Not value anymore the bookies might want to take him on so wait for the day.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot]