The Psychology of Gambling - Horses

punting4profit
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Testing, Testing 1, 2, 3

Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:47 pm

Mod edit:Please do not mess the forum posting
images than have nothing to do to with betting or sport.

punting4profit
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Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:51 pm

@punting4profits

No, you are slightly off track here. And I personally would argue all day long about the statement that BSP reflects winning chance exactly. Can you back this up with statistical evidence?

You can beat SP all day, every day and still never back a winner. If you are a trader you are spot on, but as a punter its irrelevant.

I backed Owen Na View today at 8/1, 2.6 a place... as I put on the discussion thread earlier. Still in contention and well clear with 2 others when falling late on as the 9/2 second favourite. Was I right?

No. I lost.
My claims can be backed up with Stats Des - I am not ignoring this/you - definatly an interesting discussion but I've got the Mrs/Kids in my ear about Xmas Decs!!

I will work out how to post an image and get them up as soon as I can locate the data and Father Xmas is swinging from the ceiling!! :)
Image

Image

It's not perfect Des - but personally, I do think it gives a very, very fair indication. The report is based from April 2004 and covers every race!
Let's be greatful we can pick and choose the ones we play in.

Be Lucky :win:

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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:10 pm

I can't read it unfortunately. If I PM you my email, could you send over the files?

I know its a bit of an ask but it is a pet peeve of mine, this belief that the exchange market is all-knowing!
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:26 pm

I can't read it unfortunately. If I PM you my email, could you send over the files?

I know its a bit of an ask but it is a pet peeve of mine, this belief that the exchange market is all-knowing!
Yeah, of course.... I don't want to quote another site on here where you can generate the reports for your good self but one fine day, someone will give me permission to PM people!!! :shock:

I think I can recieve PMs ok so yeah - happy to email you as soon as I get it m8.

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Postby deswalker » Fri Mar 28, 2014 3:49 pm

Urgh... I've just read this;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

and it made my head spin! Relevant to betting though I think, in all sorts of ways, but particularly when we consider trading on the exchanges.

:?
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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Postby nors » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:20 pm

It is true des, "Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market."

An example (Figures made up)

Marks and Spencer Profits - £850 Million - down 4 % from 2012
Freds Grocery Store - Profits £100 Million up 5% from 2012

So Marks and Spencer shares fall and the BBC report that "Good old M and S is in trouble, whilst highlighting that Freds Grocery Store increased their profits by 5%.

But M and S made 8 times the amount of money that Fred made and with profits like that have the capital to easily turn things around. But the perception is that M and S is in trouble. So everyone thinks that a healthy company like M and S is doing poorly and price their shares poorly.
This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on what they think everyone else thinks their value is.
But if you look at another set of figures and lets say these were the only figures ever available, then the perception and share price would be different.

Top 20 retailers in UK by profits
1 Marks And Spencer
2 xxxx
3 xxxx
19 Freds Grocery store

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Postby oldmansea » Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:27 pm

For a market to function perfectly it has to have informed buyers and sellers, layers and backers with access to all they need to make an informed purchase (bet or lay). It also reaches a state of equilibrium with enough profit and value for buyers and sellers to keep them in the market. Since the vast bulk of backers and layers do not make money on Betfair the normal rules that would apply to another market do not apply, since there are millions of people addicted to gambling but not to buying or selling washing machines, or iron and steel or a Californian orange futures. That means they are happy to lose money on a regular basis. That does not exist in other markets since they exist for profits and Betfair exists to fuel a hobby. I don't think anyone could argue that the people who bet or lay are in any realistic way fully informed, since gallops and an individual horse's progress are not widely known amongst a host of other factors like dubious timings, goings, etc etc. Most people rely upon the middlemen, tipsters. to form an opinion for them. Traders will even out the bumps as opinions form. Betfair reflects weight of money, it's a stretch to argue it reflects merits regarding a single event except in a general way. In the same way Louis Vuitton bags are of high value but don't necessarily reflect value in terms of utility, durability or useability. Because it shifts huge amounts of money and money that follows money, it may be that it reflects and magnifies that tiny but informed opinion that counts, but in that sense too, the average punter or trader is dependent upon someone else, another middleman between the providers of the market and themselves: informed money and that will be the middleman.

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Postby Clish8594 » Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:56 am

Dear all.

Can any of you recommend any psychology/ horse racing books out there.

Anything that fits into sort of decision making, betting markets, thought process and all round horse racing betting in general.

Would like a good read as I studied sport psychology for a while and everything linked in fascinates me.


Cheers..

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jun 04, 2014 12:55 pm

Just stumbled on this link which has a fantastic little test designed to estimate the subjects ability to assess risk. Well worth a look;

http://projectionpoint.com/

I won't tell you what I scored.

:P
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Postby nors » Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:26 pm

Clish the Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman has some helpful info.

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/d ... l-kahneman

It made me look at decision making in my betting and what influences it.

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Postby jpaul71 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:23 pm

Here's a tip for you. If you are backing losers just stop! Even if you have won for the past two months. Take a 2 week hiatus minimum and start back afresh. Choose one or two races a week, ideally races where every horse in the race is there to win - C2 handicaps or Group races. Work to finding 8 runner handicaps where the odds are 1/4 the place 1-3 or larger handicaps where you can get 1/4 odds 5 or 6 places like for Cornrow tomorrow with Ladbrokes. Never back odds on unless an 10/11 shot should be 1/2 or shorter. Work through the form tirelessly - watch every horse replay you can (no excuse not to now as Sportinglife hold them all for free). Know that your horse has a better theoretical chance of winning than it's odds - i.e. if you are sure it's chances of winning are 25% then back it at odds of 5-1 or better - if it is below that number no matter how sure you think it might win DO NOT BACK IT.
Last edited by jpaul71 on Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby jpaul71 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:28 pm

No book needed - just an eveluation of form (which will not always work) and an understanding of relative prices. For me Cornrow can make the first 6 in the Cambridgeshire tomorrow in my opinion. I can get 6 places 1/4 odds. I will back him at 8/1 as I think that as relative value but I will not back him at 7/1 because at 8-1 I can get a 25% return on investment but less than that is hardly worth the risk. That's from 25+ years of backing - but I will say get a price in your head if you can't back at that price let it go - simple value psychology.

My point is there is no easy way to get to a profitable stage other than lots of homework and letting the odd winner go like I did with Custom Cut today who I tried to back at 14-1 which was a stand out but moved to 11-1 as I placed the bet so left him alone only to see him scoot in at 6-1! My strategy would be to pick 1 or max 2 races a week get really in depth with them and try to find the value that has not been seem ( Custom Cut beat a G1 winner last time and has an ace trainer jockey combo that is still being under valued in the market)

Also any professional gambler will tell you - stick to single bets. Why do you think the bookies offer you bonuses for accumulators!

If you can be really controlled the way you will least likely to hemorrhage money is to stick to 8 runner races where 1/4 odds are offered and you can back a certain placer EW.

p.s. If you do back Cornrow back him on the Racing Post app as you will get a free bet if he wins or 365 as that will be the same

BTW William Hill are 7 places 1/4 odds - snaffle up any 8-1 they give through the Rp app and you will get repaid a free bet for something...

His career has somewhat been aimed at this race - from what we have seen he is clearly better than a 94 handicapper and his last run was totally aimed at settling him down for this new distance and by New Approach he can clearly improve to be a 100+ horse and his trainer had a sighter with the winner of the compensation race on Friday,

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