The Psychology of Gambling - Horses

nors
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Postby nors » Fri Nov 15, 2013 6:11 pm

Good point about Herd mentality Rogerk13, the bookies know that to mention a horse being backed leads to others following that horse. Many times we hear "the best backed horse of the day is...... or a team being all the rage on the back pages leads to lots of chat and the "herd following" pushing down the price.

We always need to check where this support is coming from, what the arguments are for and against and look deeper into the event.


There must be plenty of members who can add their thoughts and behaviours when betting so do please post below.

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Postby man o bong » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:58 pm

What about the herd mentality of horses. Does anyone take note when watching the racing if there are horses that look like they are running with the herd rather than against them. i mean in terms of being happy on the shoulder of another in a finish and not wanting to go past running up a string of placed efforts?
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Postby adam9851 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:04 am

A thing I have often wondered about as you see a lot of punters recording there bets is can you be right when your wrong?

I know your betting a horse to Win or Laying to Lose Bottom Line...or is it if I back a horse at 20/1 and it gets beat a short head was I more correct than if it got tailed off. I wont go into the whole randomness thing but it got me wondering. I know when the money is lost its lost and doesn't make you feel better even if it did just get beat.

If you Lay a Favourite and it just wins have you got it more correct than it winning easy?

Just wanna hear some thoughts on it really.

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Postby nors » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:47 am

Your reasoning and anaylisis on an event may have been right as you predicted a weakish favourite or a value option. If you continue in this vein opposing weak favs and backing what you consider value bets you may well profit in the future.

Its a learning curve and the more events we study the better read we all become. So i would say you can be right when you are wrong, just dont let it happen too often!!

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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:14 am

A thing I have often wondered about as you see a lot of punters recording there bets is can you be right when your wrong?

I know your betting a horse to Win or Laying to Lose Bottom Line...or is it if I back a horse at 20/1 and it gets beat a short head was I more correct than if it got tailed off. I wont go into the whole randomness thing but it got me wondering. I know when the money is lost its lost and doesn't make you feel better even if it did just get beat.

If you Lay a Favourite and it just wins have you got it more correct than it winning easy?

Just wanna hear some thoughts on it really.
Right can of worms this one mate!

:)

When I was first starting out at this, I was definitely of the opinion that you could be "right" when "wrong", but I have a far more complicated view now.

There is no such thing as being right when you are wrong. If your bet loses, you were wrong... its as simple as that. However, if you are finding value long term you will be right more often than the market suggests you should be.

:P
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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:25 am

How this relates to the psychology of gambling is an interesting one, and is also related to my drifting away from bigger prices to shorter prices as I get more experienced.

Psychologically, I find long losing runs hard to take. I know there are plenty that have the tools to cope with them but I can't. Thankfully I'm not inclined to go on "tilt" or start chasing on a losing run, my problem is that I lose interest and this inevitably leads to me missing those winners when my fortune turns around.

The best way I have to combat this is by abandoning those overpriced outsiders as I don't want 30 losers at 33/1 before I get one in! I might be "more right than the market suggests" on them, and my long term records from a couple of years ago prove this to be so, but if I lose interest before the one that turns things around its irrelevant. Instead I focus at the top of the market and assess these outsiders as live dangers to the fancy.

This doesn't stop losing runs... nothing stops losing runs... but it does make them more manageably short!

:win:
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Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:56 pm

A thing I have often wondered about as you see a lot of punters recording there bets is can you be right when your wrong?

I know your betting a horse to Win or Laying to Lose Bottom Line...or is it if I back a horse at 20/1 and it gets beat a short head was I more correct than if it got tailed off. I wont go into the whole randomness thing but it got me wondering. I know when the money is lost its lost and doesn't make you feel better even if it did just get beat.

If you Lay a Favourite and it just wins have you got it more correct than it winning easy?

Just wanna hear some thoughts on it really.
Right can of worms this one mate!

:)

When I was first starting out at this, I was definitely of the opinion that you could be "right" when "wrong", but I have a far more complicated view now.

There is no such thing as being right when you are wrong. If your bet loses, you were wrong... its as simple as that. However, if you are finding value long term you will be right more often than the market suggests you should be.

:P
Have to be careful how I write this because at the same time as being correct Des, I think you almost then prove you are wrong! No offence!

If I've backed something at 20/1 which returns at a Betfair SP of 7.6 my bet was 'right' - win, lose or draw. This horse then goes on to finish 2nd by a short-head, with the jockey losing his whip and being crossed by an inspired Tony McCoy ride as he gets his mount up to beat mine a nose. The result remains unaltered.

For me, that bet at 20/1 is very much 'right'. If I get bets that right all the time and have a sufficient bank and staking plan to endure all losing runs, varience and drawdowns then I will ultimately come out in front.

For me, the most simple terms to look at a bet are these - if the odds you achieve are beating Betfair SP then given average luck, you are very likely to end up in front. If the odds you are taking are not beating Betfair SP then you are likely to end up behind as you are not achieving value and given average luck you cannot win!

This is because the Betfair SPs provide (over the long term) an almost perfect expression of a horses winning chance. That is to say (and without checking) 50% of horses starting at a Betfair SP of 2.0 will win and 33% of horses starting at a Betfair SP of 3.0 will also win.

This is why I go absolutley bat shit when Bookmakers close accounts and this is proably why there are examples of people suffering account closure even when an account is running at a loss. If they are beating Betfair SP everytime then the Bookmakers knows they will likely end up a winner.

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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:05 pm

@punting4profits

No, you are slightly off track here. And I personally would argue all day long about the statement that BSP reflects winning chance exactly. Can you back this up with statistical evidence?

You can beat SP all day, every day and still never back a winner. If you are a trader you are spot on, but as a punter its irrelevant.

I backed Owen Na View today at 8/1, 2.6 a place... as I put on the discussion thread earlier. Still in contention and well clear with 2 others when falling late on as the 9/2 second favourite. Was I right?

No. I lost.
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Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:09 pm

@punting4profits

No, you are slightly off track here. And I personally would argue all day long about the statement that BSP reflects winning chance exactly. Can you back this up with statistical evidence?

You can beat SP all day, every day and still never back a winner. If you are a trader you are spot on, but as a punter its irrelevant.

I backed Owen Na View today at 8/1, 2.6 a place... as I put on the discussion thread earlier. Still in contention and well clear with 2 others when falling late on as the 9/2 second favourite. Was I right?

No. I lost.
My claims can be backed up with Stats Des - I am not ignoring this/you - definatly an interesting discussion but I've got the Mrs/Kids in my ear about Xmas Decs!!

I will work out how to post an image and get them up as soon as I can locate the data and Father Xmas is swinging from the ceiling!! :)

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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:10 pm

Fair play mate... save me a mince pie! :lol:
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Postby punting4profit » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:16 pm

How this relates to the psychology of gambling is an interesting one, and is also related to my drifting away from bigger prices to shorter prices as I get more experienced.

Psychologically, I find long losing runs hard to take. I know there are plenty that have the tools to cope with them but I can't. Thankfully I'm not inclined to go on "tilt" or start chasing on a losing run, my problem is that I lose interest and this inevitably leads to me missing those winners when my fortune turns around.

The best way I have to combat this is by abandoning those overpriced outsiders as I don't want 30 losers at 33/1 before I get one in! I might be "more right than the market suggests" on them, and my long term records from a couple of years ago prove this to be so, but if I lose interest before the one that turns things around its irrelevant. Instead I focus at the top of the market and assess these outsiders as live dangers to the fancy.

This doesn't stop losing runs... nothing stops losing runs... but it does make them more manageably short!

:win:
On a more agreeable note, I'm with you on this 100%. I can make money backing outsiders - it's proven through years of betting records. However, during last season, I was sufferring a 60 point losing streak before a 44.0 shot popped up. The remaining 16 points were clawed back over the next 2 months and long term I am miles ahead but I cannot stand the bad times during the losing runs. It's just not in my phychological make up :(

Since isoloating the most likely winner (and still identifying the price available as value), the same results would have produced a longest losing run of 8 and a biggest drawdown of 23. With this in mind, my betting bank is now 40 points and therefore stakes have been incresed as previously my betting bank had to be divided in to around 200 points... Comes out at around the same profit with alot less stress and phychological damage :win:

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Postby deswalker » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:20 pm

Since isoloating the most likely winner (and still identifying the price available as value), the same results would have produced a longest losing run of 8 and a biggest drawdown of 23. With this in mind, my betting bank is now 40 points and therefore stakes have been incresed as previously my betting bank had to be divided in to around 200 points... Comes out at around the same profit with alot less stress and phychological damage
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