Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

tbuckley
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Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

Postby tbuckley » Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:57 pm

Hello everybody, after a 4 year gap I'm back to get involved in some sports/sports betting chat on here with old & new members alike. :win:

For those of you I know & interacted with during my first stint with OLBG, via thousands of forum posts & blogs, then I hope you have all kept well & been winning, for those of you who don't know me and have joined since I left then I hope you've loved your time here.

I've been betting during all that time away, and living on twitter lol, but I decided to give the keyboard a rest from a writing perspective and I've only written a handful of pieces in the last couple of years, since the new year I've been thinking of doing some bits again, so with Cheltenham upon us & other major sport to come in the coming months I'm looking at getting involved again.

First up is something I started as a blog here on OLBG over 5 years ago, there are hundreds of Cheltenham pieces & previews, I respect what others do and the work they put in, but I like to do things a bit different and so I came up with this approach of looking at the Starting Prices of Winners from a selection of Festival races over a period of time to see if any trends existed, to see if any particular races were good for favourites/fancied horses and see which races were good for the bookmakers, nothing ever guaranteed of course but doing this has helped me over the years.

So I've done my best to go through the results & update the piece as below, hope it interests & helps in some way

Cheltenham Festival - Previous Winner Price Analysis from 2005 to 2021

I'm a fan of both racing codes, I've enjoyed great days at both flat & jump racing fixtures with OLBG and as we come into the first week of March it's obviously a truly exciting time as both codes get their chance to shine, with jump racing having it's traditional stage at the Cheltenham Festival in mid March.

The Cheltenham Festival provides a brilliant week of racing action to enjoy and of course the challenge of trying to find those winning bets, in today's world forums & social media are full of racing enthusiasts who have views on Cheltenham and I'm just the same, I like the challenge of doing my own analysis.

I will of course look at form, ground, jockey and trainers etc when it's time to do so but analysis of the Starting Price (SP) of previous winners is something I started six years ago, it's different to the standard approach and it's an approach that has helped massively since I began doing it.

My analysis below looks at a range of Festival races with the Starting Price (SP) of the winner since 2005 up to 2021, highlighting races that have proved to be incredibly punter-friendly and also those that have been largely bookmaker benefits, hopefully you find this to be useful in some way.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

SP of winners from 2005 to 2021 :- 20/1, 6/1, 40/1, 17/2, 2/1, 2/1, 10/1, 10/1, 5/1, 7/2jf , 2/1f, 4/1, 25/1, 9/1, 6/1, 6/1, 8/11f


Since 2005 the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has very much been a mixed bag for punters with the winner priced at 6/1 or below ten times & the odds on favourite Appreciate It obliged last year but the race has also seen winners coming home at 10/1 twice, 25/1, 20/1 and an incredible 40/1 in 2007 (made even more incredible by the fact Willie Mullins was the victorious trainer).


Arkle Chase

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021 :- 7/1, 15/2, 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 6/1, 6/1, 8/11f, 8/15f, 33/1, 4/6f, 1/4f, 2/7f, 5/6f , 5/1, 16/1, 4/9f


15 of the last 17 to pass the post first have been priced 8/1 or under with 12 of them 6/1 or less, 7 of last 10 winners have been odds on favourites

The Arkle clearly has been incredibly favourable for those towards the head of the market with only the 2014 shock 33/1 winner & 2020's 16/1 winner Put The Kettle On spoiling the party for backers of the market leaders and giving bookmakers the only real joy in the race since 2005.



Mares Hurdle

SP of Winners from 2008 to 2021:- 20/1, 2/1f, 6/4f, 5/6f , 4/7f , 8/11f, 8/11f, 6/1, 4/6f, 4/1, 9/2, 10/1, 9/4, 11/1


The 20/1 winner in 2008 , 10/1 winner in 2019 & Black Tears winning at 11/1 last year are the only times the Mares Hurdle winner has been priced bigger than 6/1 – seven times the winner was priced 2/1 or shorter. Of course, that was due to the brilliance of Quevega, winning it six times on the bounce playing the role of festival banker year after year.



Ballymore Novice Hurdle

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 17/2, 17/2, 20/1, 5/2f, 7/1, 7/1, 2/1f, 7/2, 6/4f, 9/2, 3/1, 14/1, 8/11f , 8/1, 4/7f, 6/4


The Ballymore Novice Hurdle has been kind to backers of the market leaders in the last decade with 8 of the last 10 winners priced 9/2 or shorter with 6 of them 3/1 or shorter, Bob Olinger was the toast of punters last year bringing home the gamble in style at 6/4, the 14/1 winner in 2016 and 8/1 winner in 2018 have been the only sources of relief for bookmakers in that time.


Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter Handicap)

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 20/1, 40/1, 9/2jf, 14/1, 11/1, 4/1f , 9/1, 40/1, 25/1, 33/1, 25/1, 13/2, 33/1, 33/1, 7/2, 15/2, 80/1


The punters who landed the gamble on the 2019 winner Band Of Outlaws & backed him into 7/2f certainly took plenty from the bookmakers but overall the race should be called the Bookies Benefit Handicap Hurdle given the incredible SPs of the winners since 2005 – last year there was the stunning 80/1 Jeff Kidder, there have been two winners at 40/1, three winners at 33/1, 5 of the last 7 winners have been 25/1 or bigger

Only 6 winners have gone off 9/1 or shorter and only two clear favourites + one joint-jolly have won since 2005.



Champion Bumper

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 7/2f, 33/1, 11/2, 12/1, 9/2, 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1, 16/1, 9/2f, 5/1, 7/1, 25/1, 2/1f, 11/1, 85/40


2005 was a good year for the punters in the Champion Bumper with a 7/2 favourite winning, in 2009 the winner returned at 9/2, 2015 had a 9/2f, 2020 saw the highly regarded Envoi Allen win as 2/1f & last year 85/40 2nd fav Sir Gerhard delivered for punters.

Those 5 results were poor ones for bookmakers but they had plenty to cheer in the others years including there being winners at 40/1, 33/1 25/1 twice, 16/1 twice and 14/1 so the Champion Bumper definitely represents a mixed bag for punters, although Willie Mullins has trained some of those massive-priced winners including 2018 when he had the first three home, he also trained the 11/1 winner in 2020.



Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 10/1, 50/1, 14/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 14/1, 25/1, 9/2f, 9/1, 14/1, 10/1, 6/1, 4/1f, 10/1, 12/1


The three that standout in this are the heavily gambled 2014 winner Fingal Bay stands out in this race having won as 9/2f, 2018 saw Delta Work very well backed to come home in front as a 6/1 winner, Sire Du Berlais landed plenty of punts to win as 4/1f in 2019 & amazingly he doubled up in 2020 at 10/1

So the last 8 years has seen 3 big punts landed, but on the flipside every other champion since 2005 has been priced at 9/1 or bigger with ten of those returning at 12/1 or larger.


Ryanair Chase

SP of winners from 2005 to 2021:- 20/1, 10/3f, 9/2, 4/1, 6/1, 14/1, 6/1, 7/2f , 7/2, 3/1f , 16/1, 1/1f, 15/8f, 8/1, 9/2, 2/1, 3/1


The Ryanair Chase produced a 20/1 winner back in 2005 but since then only two other winners have returned bigger than 8/1 and 13 of the winners since 2005 have had a starting price of 6/1 or shorter, 4 of the last 6 winners were 3/1 or shorter.



Festival Plate

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 25/1, 14/1, 12/1, 66/1, 33/1, 18/1, 25/1, 9/2f, 50/1, 12/1, 33/1, 16/1, 16/1, 5/1f, 9/2, 10/3f, 9/4f

The Festival Plate had a 9/2 winning favourite in 2012, 2018 saw The Storyteller hammered into 5/1f on the day, 2019 saw Siruh De Lac landed plenty of bets to win as a 9/2 shot, 2020 saw Simply The Betts incredibly well backed to win at 10/3f and last year The Shunter was hammered into 9/4 & landed the money for the punters.

So the last 4 renewals have been great for punters making any big move this year worthy of great respect but before that this race had been all about double-figure priced winners and very big prices with winners at 66/1, 50/1, 33/1 twice, 25/1, 18/1 and 16/1 twice, will a gamble be landed again or will the bookies be the ones cheering home a huge priced winner ?


County Handicap Hurdle

SP of Winners from 2005 to 2021:- 16/1, 4/1f , 12/1, 50/1, 20/1, 20/1, 10/1, 20/1, 10/1, 11/1, 25/1, 8/1, 20/1, 33/1, 12/1, 11/2f, 33/1


Ruby Walsh rode the heavily backed 4/1f winner in 2006 & in 2020 Saint Roi was very well backed to win at 11/2 but they are the only winner that have been 8/1 or shorter since 2005 and 14 of the last 17 have been 10/1 or bigger with winners at 50/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1 four times.


The Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle

The Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle has only been run since 2009 but apart from the 2020 winner coming in at 5/1, all the other winners had an SP of 8/1 or bigger & three of those 16/1 or bigger.

The Gold Cup

The flagship event has been pretty kind to those backing the market leaders – 14 of the last 17 Gold Cup winners were priced 8/1 or under. 7 favourites have won at 4/1 or shorter in that time.


I hope you find this analysis of Starting Price of previous winners from a selection of Festival races to be interesting and useful in some way, I of course hope it helps you find those winners and the races/prices to potentially avoid.

Feel free to join in with your views on this, interested to know if you've ever used an approach like this or think will help in some way, of course if you spot any obvious error please accept that I've done this with half an eye on the snooker & a dusty keyboard so forgive me and I'll sort it :win:
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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nors
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Re: Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

Postby nors » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:06 am

Interesting about the Festival Plate Tommy will we see a 5th horse hammered in the betting?

The last 4 plates had field sizes of 21,23,22,22 yet such short prices!

Celebre DAllen is current fav from the Hobbs yard

I saw from the blogs that Gary Moore has a decent record in that race and has Zhiguli entered, now it may not get in but a horse to note, worth adding to trackers.
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Re: Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

Postby man o bong » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:49 pm

Should we be back to opposig the favouite in the Superme novices?
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tbuckley
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Re: Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

Postby tbuckley » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:04 pm

Thanks Nors & Man o bong for responding to this, indeed I hope more do.

Regarding your point Nors then the Plate is clearly a puzzle that was seriously hard to solve for a long time but for some reason the gambles have been very well landed in the last 4 so maybe trainers/connections have figured out a way to plan & land the gambles in this race and a 5th consecutive well backed winner can't be ruled out.

I have not personally looked at the race yet and won't until closer to the day but it will be fascinating to see how the betting market for that race develops in the build up to the day itself.

Man o Bong the Supreme Novices Hurdle is a really fascinating race this season and as we stand right now we still aren't sure which of the current market principles will line up, the current front 4 in the betting are serious horses and you'd have to think the winner comes from them although I have had a small each way single on Mighty Potter who I think is fair ew value around the 12/1-14/1 mark.

Thanks for the views, keep the responses coming :win:
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Re: Cheltenham 2022 - Analysis of Starting Price of Festival Winners from 2005 to 2021

Postby berryqeran228 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:22 am

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