How to minimise my betting and trading risk - any suggestions?

condev
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How to minimise my betting and trading risk - any suggestions?

Postby condev » Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:00 pm

Hi Guys

I tend to focus on the lay 0-0 at FT or the over 0.5 goal markets. Basically, if there is a goal in the game, you win, if not you lose. Its low risk, low reward strategy, but with the correct research I can get some decent returns.

A loss does mean that I have to hit the next 10-11 to get back to where I started. So around a 1:10 win lose ratio. Would love to get this down to somewhere like 1:8 or even a 1:6 ratio. Then my returns would start to get interesting!

Can anyone suggest ways in which I can minimise or reduce my risk on the lay 0-0 at FT or over 0.5 goal markets? Or even a different betting strategy looking at this type of bet from a different angle? Am I missing a trick?

All suggestions welcome.

Thanks

nors
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Postby nors » Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:52 pm

Hi condev, Are you keeping a record of your strategy? does this point to particular areas/matches that have not worked, i suspect you are doing well but not being rewarded greatly, so a long run of games that don't end up 0-0. A spreadsheet would help in looking at odds and percentage returns/losses.

How do the half time results look?

Can you bet against the 0-0 after laying with clever staking as the game giving you less of a/no loss

I always feel there needs to be flexibility and an acceptance that there are going to be losses, its minimising the amount of these losses that is the key.

condev
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Postby condev » Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:15 pm

Thanks, Nors

Yeah I am keeping a spreadsheet of results so I can see trends, etc

I have had a look at the HT result trading, but the results I am getting would suggest I could not make this type of trade possible. Do you use HT trading with any real success?

Finally, can you elaborate on ‘Can you bet against the 0-0 after laying with clever staking as the game giving you less of a/no loss’. How would this work? Cheers.

nors
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Postby nors » Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:06 pm

You have laid 0-0, as the game progresses without a goal do you try and get out of the 0-0 lay and cut your potential losses?

This is from the Premiership 2014/15 season.

You can see 8% of games ended 0-0


Full Time %
0 - 1 40 11%
1 - 1 37 10%
2 - 0 37 10%
1 - 0 37 10%
2 - 1 35 9%
0 - 0 31 8%
1 - 2 26 7%
2 - 2 22 6%
3 - 0 19 5%
1 - 3 15 4%
0 - 2 14 4%
3 - 1 14 4%
3 - 2 9 2%
2 - 3 6 2%
0 - 3 5 1%
4 - 1 5 1%
1 - 4 4 1%
4 - 0 4 1%
3 - 3 3 1%
6 - 1 2 1%
5 - 3 2 1%
5 - 0 2 1%
2 - 4 2 1%
4 - 2 2 1%
3 - 6 1 0%
6 - 0 1 0%
0 - 5 1 0%
5 - 1 1 0%
0 - 4 1 0%
4 - 3 1 0%

You can see in nearly half the games the favs were definately not winning at half time and were drawing. + there would have been games were they were losing, so around 50% of the time the fav would at half time be at a bigger price than when they kicked off. Which would give me trading opportunities.

HT %
0 - 0 117 31%
1 - 0 76 20%
1 - 1 52 14%
0 - 1 50 13%
2 - 0 27 7%
2 - 1 18 5%
1 - 2 10 3%
3 - 0 9 2%
0 - 2 8 2%
0 - 3 4 1%
0 - 4 2 1%
2 - 2 2 1%
5 - 1 1 0%
5 - 0 1 0%
1 - 3 1 0%
3 - 1 1 0%
4 - 0 1 0%

The key as always is finding the right matches!!

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Postby horage » Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:22 pm

condev micko70 has writtern a good blog about over 0.5 goals and teams that

dont have many 0-0 draws ;so its a good idea to read micko70 blog on

this subject as its well worth reading with some good stats;hope this helps.

nors
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Postby nors » Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:28 pm

Its excellent you are keeping a spreadsheet, try retrospectively altering your staking and see where you can reduce losses to a manageable level or increase profits, all the time working from a protecting your bank starting point and not a making profit starting point, by always protecting your bank first you will gain in confidence.

I dont like using the word portfolio as too many paid for tipsters use it to highlight their "winnings" from this portfolio or that portfolio.

So they quote "portfolio long shots is showing a 200% return on horses at grade 1 tracks", forgetting to mention their other 11 portfolios are showing a 200% loss.

However spreading your risk and only risking x amount in relation to your bank should always be the way to go. You always need to protect your funds, once you have this money management in place then every loss can be easily accomodated and nothing to get unduly worried about.

You need to expect losses and welcome them as they put a brake on our egos, and stop us thinking we have found the holy grail or that we are the next messiah.

Try different staking models and see what the figures come out at.

nors
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Postby nors » Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:32 pm

Thanks horage, well remembered, here it is.

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=408284

Many bloggers have analysed a range of stats and footy markets. All are brilliant.

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/index.php?c=10

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/index.php?c=57

condev
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Postby condev » Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:14 pm

Thanks guys, these are all great tips. I will give it a go.

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Postby westport007 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:35 am

I normally go Each Way on all my bets.2/1 and over I go e/w always.Some people think that is ridiculous but believe me its a big safety catch as you get back something.odds that are extremely short don\'t bet on as they don\'t give enough return and could still get turned over.

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Re: Minimise my risk – any suggestions?

Postby jibberjag » Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:45 pm

My suggestion would be to drip lay the 0-0. Lay at 45 mins then bit more at 30 then 15.

You will be taking less risk. If a goal late on you win all 3.

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Re: Minimise my risk - any suggestions?

Postby DrZoidberg » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:40 am

I would suggest if you are watching the games betting after the first 15 minutes or so in play providing it is still 0-0 as goals are statistically less frequent during the opening minutes in football (at least in the premiership) and then there tend to be more goals at the end of the first half and end of the second half so betting 10 minutes in to the match you gain some value. There are lots of articles and analysis blogs considering these things and may be worth checking out.

Of course this could be made even more specific by doing some research into what time each team typically scores at/after e.g. Arsenal so far have scored 8 goals in the 80-90 minute range this season and there may be a reason for this e.g. their strategy could be to open up formation and press higher up the pitch if they aren't winning at 80 minutes and Man Utd have conceded a lot of goals in the last minutes which could be due to trying to park the bus during this time period (or Fellaini coming on and giving away penalties :wink: ). This could be also purely coincidental! Just an idea to look into!

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