Laying a losing Over 0.5 Goals bet, possible?

pumpdaball
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Postby pumpdaball » Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:06 pm

Car, in the situation you give as an example it would be best to lay first and then back. if a goal does go in, its not going to cost you very much, if you layed it at 1.06 as soon as your lay is taken, input your request for 1.07 at whatever amount is applicable. It would be advisable not to back 1.07 first as the odds are going out when no goal, so next up is 1.08 to 1.09 etc, and a lay will obviously lose you money if there is a goal. as you've offered out more than you are getting on the back bet at 1.07.

What you need to remember is: if there is no goal forthcoming then the odds will go out which means you will lose some of your money as you backed 1.07 and it's also the market of over 0.5 which means a goal closes that market. if it were over 2.5 at least the odds will change against you but you still have the chance of no more goals and hence the odds coming back down to where you were at, so you can get out or whatever your choice is.....

I will add to back that sort of bet at 1.07 with 75minutes gone is very risky and you need to invest a lot of stake to get anything worth having back after commission. at 75minutes it would be my choice to lay, with such little risk you can wait to see how it goes, and then get out at a couple of points increase in the odds if you wanted to. hih (hope it helps) :)
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martinr
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Postby martinr » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:17 pm

You're probably best to watch the in-play markets for as many games as possible without risking any money, recording the various market reactions at critical points (after a goal, after 80 minutes with the score at 0-0, after 2 quick early goals, etc etc). You should compile a database which will give you an idea of what the market will look like at any time.
I don't understand your particular question above though. If you have a pre-game back bet at 1.07 on over 0.5 goals then there is no way out of this bet without losing money as the game goes on. The price will just get longer. If you have a Lay bet on 0-0 waiting to get matched, then yes, it will get taken sometime between 80-90 minutes, but if the game stays at 0-0 you will lose both sides. If it gets taken and there is a last minute goal you win both sides, but this is simply gambling on the result, and I'm not sure if that is your intention? If it is, then why not just place the pre-game Lay bet of 0-0 at the price you have identified as the "sweet spot". In other words, if you have noticed that 0-0 will get matched at 1.07 at the 82nd minute, and your research has indicated that a goal is scored after that point more often than 6% of the time, then you should come out ahead. Some teams, leagues, seem to have a record of scoring late, but this could of course just be a statistical anomaly.
I think research and plain hard work, as with anything, is the key to making any profit this way.
Good luck.

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