Arbitrage Betting

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Postby non runner » Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:02 pm

There are two kinds of arbitrage as far as sports are concerned; pure and statistical.

Pure arbitrage is betting on the same event simultaneously to lock in a profit. In sports betting that is creating an underround book by shopping around for the best odds.

Statistical arbitrage is back or laying at the current price because your statistical analysis says the price is going to move in your favour for you to close out the reverse leg. e.g. lay at low odds and back at high odds.

In old betting parlance pure arbs are underrounds and stat arbs are value bets.

When you think about it, all sports betting/trading is either a pure or stat arb.

IanRushftw
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Postby IanRushftw » Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:48 pm

Sports Arbitrage is something I'm very familiar with and have been making some decent profit here and there over 15 years, when betting exchanges were first introduced and you were able to hedge as well as dutch to find arbs. However, I've noticed it's now very difficult to catch pure arbs especially on regulated UK sites that I like to use as they all have such good real time information and also closely look at Betfair/Betdaq to see what prices the exchanges have before they update their own prices. However, it's not impossible and you do still see the odd opportunity.

What you need is to be able to quickly calculate exactly how much to bet on both sites to make a profit, I'd recommend picking two or three trusted bookies and then one exchange and make sure each has money in them, then just watch the odds on the particular market you're interested in using an aggregated site or software that tracks odds changes.

It is not easy but if you're quick then you will find some real gems.
It's not over until the ball hits the back of the net!

MaxBetter
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Postby MaxBetter » Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:53 am

There are two kinds of arbitrage as far as sports are concerned; pure and statistical.

Pure arbitrage is betting on the same event simultaneously to lock in a profit. In sports betting that is creating an underround book by shopping around for the best odds.

Statistical arbitrage is back or laying at the current price because your statistical analysis says the price is going to move in your favour for you to close out the reverse leg. e.g. Lay at low odds and back at high odds.

In old betting parlance pure arbs are underrounds and stat arbs are value bets.

When you think about it, all sports betting/trading is either a pure or stat arb.
I've been talking to a few people lately about the idea of statistical arbitrage not getting you gubbed/limited with the bookies. My feeling being (obviously conjecture here) for the most part they're tracking punters taking value based on the current price of the markets.

So if you had an edge here and took the back odds when it was unprofitable at the time it might not flag you up as taking value when later the lay odds move in your favour.

johnyyydal24
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back and lay betting

Postby johnyyydal24 » Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:59 pm

Could anyone tell me if this is a sure bet.
Backing under 2 goals at 3.76 then laying the same selection under 2.5 goals at 2.33.
I take it I have it there is a small risk to this bet thanks all.

davidg3907
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Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:32 pm

It certainly isn't an arb - as an arb is literally the same bet at different odds.

If you back under 2 goals and lay under 2.5 goals, you will lose both bets if there are exactly 2 goals.

With any other number of goals, both bets will win, or both will lose. If they both lose, you make no money anyway.
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