Trading on Betfair - Laying front runners in-play

unexposed
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Trading on Betfair - Laying front runners in-play

Postby unexposed » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:41 pm

It all sounds a bit easy really, im sure there are a number of pit falls that i haven't payed enough attention to.

When i look at a race i always try to find an angle and visualise how i think the race will unfold, key to this is identifying where the pace is coming from, ie who will take up the running. A prime example for this is last weekends eclipse. It was obvious Mukhadram was going to make the running. He was 11 on Betfair at one point before the race, now i didnt watch the market in-running but i would expect he traded shorter than that in the first two furlongs, nevermind as the race began to unfold obviously. Now assuming i layed him four or five furlongs into the race i would have made profit. Obviously, races don't always pan out the way you expect (as with Windhoek this weekend whom i expected to make all), but 9 times out of 10 you know who the front runner will be.

Has anyone had any experience in doing this or similar methods or see any gaping flaws in this method that i have overlooked?

Thanks

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Postby nors » Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:13 pm

You often get an inkling of which horses are goint to lead from the market + as you said some horses are known front runners. Many do back them and then have a lay bet in place for in running.

In many cases you will get matched but there are instances where you wont, depending on the price you put the lay bet at. When playing with bigger amounts it is risky, smaller amounts obviously the risk may be worth the reward.

If for example a trainer says to his jockey " get to the front and kick on" then connections may have this info which could result in plenty of market support but could also mean they want to get out after say a furlong and you could be left not being matched.

Alternatively the trainer may change tack and say "hold the horse up this time"

If you are convinced then it could be a good strategy but i would put your lay bet in at a conservative price and not risk too much.

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Postby man o bong » Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:33 pm

It is one of those that falls into the category of, "if was that easy then everyone would be doing it",

Well certainly not everyone does it, but I am sure everyone has tried, and there are a great number of people who do employ the approach. I have and indeed still do at times.

The market knows the front runners, and there are bigger boys and girls out there doing this and accounting for it laying the prices, or indeed backing whichever way the market looks. I was surprised when first trying this approach about how late it can be left before a front runners price starts to fold, but just doing this online, even with a stream that is a few seconds out is enough time to be very quickly on the wrong side of the trade

My advice would be to check previous runs of the horse, and see what level of drop the runner has seen in it's front running outings in the past in certain race classes and conditions and set a get out point well within that. I wouldnt leave it until in play to decide at what point you want to exit the trade.Know that number before you go in.
In fact it is better to know the exit before the entry and if looking for bigger profit, the gamble on waiting for a bigger entry point,as this is risk free

For instance, I use Long Run as an example, I am trying to remember, and think that even though this is a guess now but he has traded odds on in almost all of his races at some point.

So finding a runner like that who regularly sees a good percentage drop in his price is a decent place to start, knowing your entry and exit points well in advance of the race and not being tempted to stay in
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Postby man o bong » Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:59 pm

After reading this thread it inspired me to try some back to lay betting using front runners,and additionally those that had run well in the previous outing. It is working to a degree and has opened up a whole new way of betting

I may not be making huge amounts of money, but I have never enjoyed winning consistency like this previously in my betting
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Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jul 27, 2013 2:50 pm

MOB

This is an approach I use occasionally as time does not permit overuse.

The list can include :-

Front runners , particularly those in form.

Horses that were just beaten last time out , whether front runners or not.

With care , some horses that ' flatter to deceive '. Pastoral Player was one - rarely won , rarely ran a bad race , rarely didn't shorten in running despite being held up.

Rogues that should win a lot more races than they do.

Using the Timeform free page , historic ' lows ' are shown for virtually all races ( i.e. where Betfair does not go AWOL for a while :D ).

Even a horse with a string of poor form figures can have hidden in running value when checked this way.

This should not be used as the sole criteria , but is a great way of weeding out those of which one is not too sure.
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Postby man o bong » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:16 pm

I think I am seeing that the in play traders can account for these front runners, also, when playing the opposite way round, looking for those that tend to be held up,(and I have been looking at favourites primarily here), they don't tend to trade as big in the run as one might expect given their position in the race

Any other approaches used out there?
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Postby man o bong » Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:52 pm

With the jumps upon us now, it got me tothinking about trading again.

With Long Run due out this weekend, he is one that has been a traders dream

Long Run has traded sub evens on almost every race he has partaken, and was a larg trade for me to do the same in the Gold Cup last season

I shant play him for the Charlie Hall but wondered..........

As we see these jumpers year after year, does anyone have any favourite runners to bet in running

on the opposite side of the coin, Tidal Bay is always one for a bigger price in the run and there are many more like him

Give us some suggestions
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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Oct 30, 2013 8:16 pm

From memory , Dynaste is one that springs to mind.

Unfortunately now that one needs to be played at short odds.
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Postby martinr » Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:06 pm

Conversely I heard somewhere (I think it was Timeform radio) that AP McCoy's winning rides have traded at up to 5 and more times their SP odds during the run on a ridiculous number of occasions. So often in fact that you could blindly put a Back bet order in at x times the SP and be well in profit.
I think this highlights the fact that in-play bettors are more focussed on trading the runners at the head of the field, while those being held up off a fast pace, or relying on a strong rider getting them home, are still overlooked.
Personally I wouldn't bet in play unless I was physically at the track, simply because of the time lag via the media, although I have had some success in laying the field at odds-on in races that meet certain criteria.
I can envisage a long line of traders armed with ipads jostling for vantage points at tracks with reliable internet coverage at some stage in the not too distant future, and I'm surprised I haven't heard of such a scene yet.

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Postby Online Trader » Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:03 am

I can envisage a long line of traders armed with ipads jostling for vantage points at tracks with reliable internet coverage at some stage in the not too distant future, and I'm surprised I haven't heard of such a scene yet.
I think most of them are already doing this by paying some serious money to get themselves into some of the corporate boxes where the "clock beaters" work :yes:
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Postby martinr » Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:14 pm


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