Pre the Off Horse Racing Trading

Nunnylad
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Postby Nunnylad » Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:40 am

Took me a long time, lots of dead ends, lots of false dawns, yes this is one tough nut to crack, you are right anyone who has an angle or an edge isn\'t going to make it public, why would you.people like Mr Webb promote their software without really telling you anything, watch any of his videos he really only tells you the capability of the software. I gave up a long time ago trying to get any info from Mr Webb
One day while watching racing on TV something literally jumped out, there it was an edge,I know for sure no one is using this as I can see the weight of money in the market not change, Iam not going to divulge this info, what I will say is you keep at it, you may well find an edge.
I was like this myself. Watched many videos about trading and tried it a fair bit but never really felt like I knew what I was doing but a few months ago I realised something and found an edge and I haven't had a losing day trading for over a month. I don't make enough to do it full time but it's a nice extra income to have and I see it as a hobby so it's something I enjoy spending a couple of hours a day researching the racecards for trading opportunities.

I think that is the key thing I wasn't doing before, research. I'd just look at a graph, see a horses price moving one way and back it whereas now I will only place my trades after extensive research.

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Postby Lentwood » Sun Aug 02, 2015 7:16 pm

I agree that it is not something which you can learn overnight. I have dabbled in trading on the exchanges on and off for about 8 years and after many, many failed attempts and false dawns I think I am starting to get to grips with a few methods for predicting which way the market is going to go.

Obviously you can't be right every time, every known factor could point towards a horse shortening in the market but if it gets loose on the way down to post and gallops half the track it's going to drift dramatically and if, like most traders, you aren't actually at the course you would find it difficult to get out on time

Like anything practice makes perfect. I won't let on exactly what method(s) I use but I will offer up a few golden rules;

1) Don't ever be tempted to let bets go "in-play" just because the market has moved against you

2) Don't try and base your choices on form - it is practically irrelevant and you might as well be just gambling

3) Don't make the assumption that horses from large stables or horses ridden by top jockeys will shorten

4) Be mindful of the market position of your horse before your initial bet is placed. Bear in mind that bigger priced horses move in or out much more quickly that horses at the top of the market and as such you can rack up big profits or losses very quickly

5) Think carefully about when the best time to place your bet is. I'm not going to tell people when I bet but I will say I avoid betting pre-9am raceday unless I have a very good reason too

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Postby Nunnylad » Tue Aug 04, 2015 10:35 pm

I agree that it is not something which you can learn overnight. I have dabbled in trading on the exchanges on and off for about 8 years and after many, many failed attempts and false dawns I think I am starting to get to grips with a few methods for predicting which way the market is going to go.

Obviously you can't be right every time, every known factor could point towards a horse shortening in the market but if it gets loose on the way down to post and gallops half the track it's going to drift dramatically and if, like most traders, you aren't actually at the course you would find it difficult to get out on time

Like anything practice makes perfect. I won't let on exactly what method(s) I use but I will offer up a few golden rules;

1) Don't ever be tempted to let bets go "in-play" just because the market has moved against you

2) Don't try and base your choices on form - it is practically irrelevant and you might as well be just gambling

3) Don't make the assumption that horses from large stables or horses ridden by top jockeys will shorten

4) Be mindful of the market position of your horse before your initial bet is placed. Bear in mind that bigger priced horses move in or out much more quickly that horses at the top of the market and as such you can rack up big profits or losses very quickly

5) Think carefully about when the best time to place your bet is. I'm not going to tell people when I bet but I will say I avoid betting pre-9am raceday unless I have a very good reason too
I agree with most of what you say that that is some very good advice but I do disagree with a couple of points.

1, Pre 9am trading can be very profitable if you're clued up on what the exchange prices should be, so if the price is too low(too high can work too but not as effectively) then it's such an easy trade to make a profit on. Only works overnight as the market isn't very liquid and sometimes these opportunities arise.

2, Form isn't irrelevant, it depends on how you are trading. If you trade like Peter Webb does, in the 20 minutes before the off, watching graphs and looking for patterns then yeah, form doesn't matter at all. But if you trade like I do, and that is usually before the last hectic 20 minutes then form does matter, and i've only had one losing day in over a month doing it this way. I just couldn't get my head around studying the patterns and often the market would move against me but the new 'system' that I have is working brilliantly.

nors
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Postby nors » Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:08 am

The different ways of trading which for ease i will call form or graphs are not mutually exclusive, there are connections and crossovers between them.

To say all the info is there on the Exchange and in the graphs and you never need or will never benefit from external info is just not the case.

Lets presume we all like drifts and support, and the longer and deeper those drifts and support are benefits traders. To have the information via form study or knowledge in advance of the graphs would surely be of benefit?

If i turn on the exchange 20 minutes before i start trading and just trade what is in front of me i can do well, but i can do much better with prior external info and knowing already what the market is going to do or having a view of what the market is going to do.

Some examples:

When to close the trade, when is the momentum going to stop and going to reverse, if you have prior form knowledge you will be more confident in your prediction of this momentum along with the graphs, as opposed to just having the graphs alone.

A horse known to cause trouble at the start and be difficult to load, it is likely other form students will know this and there will be plenty willing to Lay.

A jockey on a three timer with the other 2 having won, remember we are looking to be ahead of the market, the graph would not give you all this info.

The draw at Chester, if the favourite is drawn in stall 12 is it likely to drift, even though it is 20 lbs clear of its rivals.

A front runner, if you know in advance does that not help us to be ahead of the market?

If i know the bookmakers are betting to 145% on a particular race and 104% on the next race does that not help my trading?

Form/market/race knowledge will also help you in deciding which races are more conducive to horses being supported or backed by others on the exchange

There are 000's of examples where form knowledge will assist you and to say all the info is on the exchange as has been mooted on other sites is disingenuous.

Can you drive to Scotland without satnav, maps, checking the route in advance, of course you can, will you do it better and more efficiently if you have prior information, of course you will.

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Postby balitung » Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:35 am

I used to do this but couldn't really figure out how to consistently profit from it.

If you back first and lay, remember NOT to let the bet go in-play. There were a few times when I back the favorite hoping lay a few points lower during in-play, but the moment the race go in-play, the odds shot to 1000, because the horse refused to race!

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Postby nors » Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:24 pm

I used to do this but couldn't really figure out how to consistently profit from it.
I feel you answered your own question there.

You expected to consistently profit - Why?

I suspect because others all over the internet said this was the way forward, and were giving the impression that laying and trading were the road to consistent profits.

The markets do not always move the way you want, and sometimes you sit around waiting for something to happen and nothing much does, or worse it goes against you.

Whether your trading or betting there is no easy way to consistently profit, however the more you learn, the more markets you watch and how well you manage your funds all help in making profits.

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