Nice one Cyrill.I have a soccer forecast model that predicts over 1.5 goals with 80 percent strike rate.What would be the right trading strategy for this model?I would appreciate your advice.
My response is biased as I don't like the Wicked Mistress Sport as a betting medium.
With typical Over 1.5 goal odds of 1.25 - 1.35 I wonder if there is enough margin there to develop a decent trading strategy that allows for the occasional wipe-out when the Wicked Mistress shows up? What is your concern about just backing them and letting them run?
Obviously the game starts at 0-0 and generally stays at 0-0 for at least 25% of the match. Have you noticed what happens to the prices in your market after 22 goalless minutes? Maybe the best trading strategy is to not back pre-match and just wait 22 minutes for the odds to increase by 30% or more? You'll miss a few bets that have early goals, you wont avoid punting wipe-outs but the ones you do hit might show a long-term profit. Model it, using historical data.
As always, I hope a more experienced and successful footie trader adds their advice too.
When it comes to footie and horses I often feel like a bubble-burster, but I'd rather tell you my hard-learned conclusions than not respond.