Do You Have A Question On Betting Exchanges And Trading?

Betfairalfie
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Re: Do You Have A Question On Betting Exchanges And Trading?

Postby Betfairalfie » Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:42 pm

I have a soccer forecast model that predicts over 1.5 goals with 80 percent strike rate.What would be the right trading strategy for this model?I would appreciate your advice.
Nice one Cyrill.

My response is biased as I don't like the Wicked Mistress Sport as a betting medium.

With typical Over 1.5 goal odds of 1.25 - 1.35 I wonder if there is enough margin there to develop a decent trading strategy that allows for the occasional wipe-out when the Wicked Mistress shows up? What is your concern about just backing them and letting them run?

Obviously the game starts at 0-0 and generally stays at 0-0 for at least 25% of the match. Have you noticed what happens to the prices in your market after 22 goalless minutes? Maybe the best trading strategy is to not back pre-match and just wait 22 minutes for the odds to increase by 30% or more? You'll miss a few bets that have early goals, you wont avoid punting wipe-outs but the ones you do hit might show a long-term profit. Model it, using historical data.

As always, I hope a more experienced and successful footie trader adds their advice too.

When it comes to footie and horses I often feel like a bubble-burster, but I'd rather tell you my hard-learned conclusions than not respond.

nors
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Postby nors » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:17 pm

Alfie is spot on with his advice. We all even though we dont always register specialise to some degree. With your strike rate you have obviously undertaken some detailed analisys. Now is the time to dig further and get more data, more data will give you more confidence and allow you to bet or trade with more confidence.

Scammydodger:
And yet I here of people making colossal amounts at trading.
You need to take these colossal amounts claims cautiously. I can show you screenshots of huge wins, what i or others will not be showing you is the huge losses occurred. Its not the wins that matter but how you manage the losses. Whether trading or betting most of us are looking to make a regular or long term profit. If you can get to a stage where regular profits are a regular occurrence then you will have achieved something.

I dont really mind how much i make as long as at the end of the day or the week the account is in profit. That should be the aim, consistent long term profits. If i luckily win a huge amount then its just as likely i will unluckily lose a big amount. I dont want luck to play a part, i want to start a days racing knowing that when i turn the computer off i have made a profit.

You need to get to a stage with your betting bank that losses are just part and parcel of what you do and your bank can absorb the losses. It dosen't matter how much you bet, make sure your bank can absorb the inevitable losses.

The first thing to do as mentioned is only to trade pre race, it can be very dull, a couple of ticks either way and you make a small loss or a small win, there is no buzz. But by doing this regularly you are building knowledge of how the markets work. After a period of time having learnt lots and built your bank you will be able to trade with confidence.

I suspect many fund their accounts ahead of a days racing thinking i have xxx to spend. You need to look long term in relation to your bank. In 6 months time you should have boringly built your bank and you can then increase stakes.

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