Round 2 - Last 16

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Round 2 - Last 16

Postby Micko70 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:25 pm

Now that the Groups are finished and we know the last 16 and who will play who in the 8 matches, what are everybody's thoughts on these 8 matches

2.00 - Switzerland v Poland.
5.00 - Wales v Northern Ireland.
8.00 - Croatia v Portugal
2.00 - France v Rep Ireland
5.00 - Germany v Slovakia
8.00 - Hungary v Belgium
5.00 - Italy v Spain
8.00 - England v Iceland

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Postby Micko70 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:30 pm

I know a few people fancied Belgium to do well but just look at the top half of the draw, if they struggle, we will see a big surprise in the final

Myself and fellow OLBG member have decided to cover the 8 matches in 8 different Lucky 15's for Correct scores.

The games and scores are -

1 - Switzerland 1 Poland 2
2 - Wales 1 Northern Ireland 1
3 - Croatia 2 Portugal 2
4 - France 3 Rep Ireland 1
5 - Germany 3 Slovakia 1
6 - Hungary 1 Belgium 3
7 - Italy 1 Spain 2
8 - England 2 Iceland 0

The 8 Lucky 15's are as follows

Good luck to all having a bet

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Postby megadan1213 » Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:45 pm

They look like a really exciting set of fixtures, it would have been really nice to finish on the 'easy' side of the draw in hindsight from an England perspective, but we have a really winnable game now against Iceland which could see us into the Quarter finals. I'm actually looking forward to seeing us play against some more attacking teams (if we can beat Iceland that is), maybe a France or Germany, to see just how we measure up in a competitive game to these teams.

However, I should point out that England haven't won by more than a one-goal margin, in a World Cup or Euros match since Trinidad and Tobago in 2006, so the Iceland game will probably be tight and stressful.

I'm looking forward to the Wales vs Northern Ireland game, it will be great for one of those sides to reach the quarter finals, I have to fancy Wales as they have the players to hurt Northern Ireland in key areas, and it be difficult for Northern Ireland to break down the 5 man Welsh defence. It's no use both teams defending and being afraid to attack, I hope both teams go for it, they will both be confident.

Republic or Ireland vs France is a really interesting one, especially after the Theirry Henry handball and injustice for Ireland there, they say football evens out, so could we see Ireland have a stroke of luck against France and come out on top? maybe, this could potentially set up a Quarter final between England and Ireland... that would be epic.

Spain vs Italy, Spain will most likely dominate the possession here, but the Italy defense is so hard to break down and they do possess quality on the counter, Spain were vulnerable against Croatia on the counter, so Italy will certainly fancy their chances, I see this one going all the way to penalties.

Poland should dominate against Switzerland, they have better attacking players whereas Switzerland have really struggled for goals, Seferovic has been awful at finishing, so i have to fancy Poland in that one.

Croatia should be too strong for Portugal if Modric is fit especially, they can pick holes in the Portuguese defense with 38 year-old Carvalho a worry for them, Portugal conceded 3 today against Hungary who weren't particularly inventive, so i don't know how they'll deal with Croatia's creative interchanging players.

Germany should be too strong for Slovakia, they will play the same way as they did against England and play for the draw but Germany are better at unpicking defences, they should come through that one.

Finally Belgium vs Hungary, Hungary have nothing to lose, Belgium have a clear route to the final and they may be thinking ahead instead of focusing 100% on beating Hungary, Hungary can score goals as we have seen in all their games so far, and Belgium have looked far from convincing, i'm actually backing a Hungary win here.

My Quarter finals would be.

Poland vs Croatia
Wales vs Hungary
Germany vs Italy
England vs Ireland

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Postby tbuckley » Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:38 pm

Great to start this thread Micko and excellent work by you and Kessy, all the best with your correct score bets :win:

excellent contribution Megadan and I like plenty of the points you make, very interesting you are taking on France and Belgium, that really would give the bookmakers plenty of delight, would upset me as I'm on France to win it or least make the final, can't really argue with your case, will be fascinating to see how it works out.

I'm really looking forward to the rest of the tournament from here on in, I'll confess some of the fixtures really didn't excite me and I didn't watch a lot of them, given the scorelines in a lot of them I didn't miss too much, just wish I'd not bothered watching England as it's too painful.....

Generally those matches I got to watch I did actually enjoy and I do like the look the make of the 2nd round ties, the ones that really appeal to me are Croatia vs Portugal, Hungary vs Belgium, Spain vs Italy, having England vs Iceland on the same day as Italy vs Spain will be brilliant on Monday and I'm delighted I'm already off work that day, and Tuesday so I can enjoy a few drinks while I watch both matches. :wink: :lol:

For those interested I've covered the first 4 of the 2nd round ties for OLBG via a blog :-

2.00 - Switzerland v Poland.
5.00 - Wales v Northern Ireland.
8.00 - Croatia v Portugal
2.00 - France v Rep Ireland

my views on how the respective teams listed above qualified, potential key players, likely tactical approach, relative match odds, views on who I think will progress from the ties, take a look and see what you think.

I like the look of Poland, Wales, Croatia & France to progress from those ties, think it's entirely possible all 4 will win in 90 minutes but I am prepared to accept that extra time & maybe penalties will play a part, if I had to call it I think that could be a scenario in the Poland vs Switzerland game given how tight their games have been.

I'm fascinated to see how it all works out and seeing what people think, all the best with your bets.

Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Postby Capitanos2 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:54 am

These matches look interesting and I think we should expect some surprises. We have Ireland having given the chance of revenge after what Thierry Henry has done in the World Cup 2010 qualifiers. We have Slovakia to face Germany just a couple of weeks after they defeated the Germans on their ground in a friendly match, 3:1. We have the first British duel in the knockout stages in the history of football, if I recall correctly. Lastly, we have exciting games like Croatia - Portugal and Italy - Spain.

I think two solid bets would be Croatia to win against Portugal and Poland to defeat Switzerland.

Poland is yet to concede a goal at this tournament and they look to be more solid than ever. Switzerland has not been particularly impressive in the group stages, winning only against Albania and having a really consistent amount of luck in that game. Lewandowski is yet to score at this Euro therefore I rate the Swiss side chances as very low. They should be defeated in the regular time.

Moreover, Croatia should prevail on Saturday night because they are simply in the form of their life. I have not seen Croatia play so good in years. They managed to comeback against Spain in the absence of Luka Modric, their playmaker, so I expect them to defeat Portugal quite easily in fact.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be motivated but it was visible that he cannot do business on his own. They were lucky to reach the last 16 because of the great number of draws in their group.

The fact that makes me think Croatia is going to beat Portugal is the poor quality of defense in the Portugese side AND the great quality of defense in the Croatian one.

Croatia v Portugal should not be a close match, in my opinion. The Croats are certain to score and likely to win it easily if they do not lose focus. They should not get too nervous but they should be confident.

If only the Croat supporters did not throw flares in the game against Czech Republic, they would have got 9 points out of 9 and everyone would be even more enthusiastic about them right now.

Poland to win against Switzerland inside 90 minutes - 2.65 Unibet
Croatia to win against Portugal inside 90 minutes - 2.65 SportingBet

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Postby deswalker » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:58 am

The teams I feel are over-rated coming into the knock out rounds are Wales, Poland, France and Germany.

Wouldn't be surprised if Croatia are a bit over-rated as well, and Belgium possibly as well.

Wales were given a lot more space than England in the group stage, and they appeared to capitalise on this. In their final game Russia needed to win, and they got more space as a result. They are definitely better than anyone expected coming into the tournament but they have been flattered I feel...

Poland and Germany have come out of a weak group in my opinion. It's far from a vintage German side but they were always going to get out of it and Poland are merely the least worst opposition they faced.

France are a different case, as I think the group was probably tougher than anyone realised. Romania played very well at times and they ended up plum last without a win. However, that team is ageing generally, has seemed over-reliant on Payet for invention and I think they are beatable even as host nation.

Working on xG (I know they will split opinion but they have their uses) Croatia shouldn't have got out of their group. Over the three games, the Czech Republic should have been clear second using this measure. Now, it certainly was a tough group but their only real result on xG's should have been a draw against Spain in the last game, where they had an extremely effective game plan which they executed to perfection.

Belgium are an enigma. I've backed them pre-tournament but they have been Jekyll and Hyde... at times they play as if they have never met each other, and moments of individual brilliance get them through. I'm very unsure about Wilmots in charge, I think they need someone more tactically astute to sort this lot out. Having said the above, when they are in flow they can be sublime. Great to watch though, I suppose!

There we go, those observations are going to inform my betting for the next round. Would love to here what some of the wise heads here have to say about my nonsense ramblings!

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Postby NickG10 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:34 am

Hi All

I could do with some help.

I have both N Ireland and Wales on a spread bet

I bought Wales @ £10 a point @ 11

I bought N Ireland @ £20 a point @ 5

Current spread for Wales is 30-33 and N Ireland 16-18

First ever spread bet

What do I do??!

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Postby hunter12 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:43 am

I agree on France looking weak so far. I'm not sure why they still count as tournament favourites, but they have not convinced me in any of their three games yet. Probably it is because none of the other teams have not fully convinced yet either. Germany has been pretty good in their last game against Northern Ireland, but unable to score goals. That can only improve and they now seem to have found their lineup with Gomez up front and Kimmich as RB.

On the other side of the tree, Croatia have been really good and I see them having a good shot to go very far, probably even the final, as their opponents aren't really going to be world class. They were the first team to beat Spain in a Euro tournament since 2004. Their midfield has been great and Kalinic can apparently score more than Mandzukic.

Croatia to reach the final @4.33 on bet365.

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Postby deswalker » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:27 pm

Because the Slovakia won 3-1 Germany in a friendly on 29 may. And this is only defeat Germany in last 5 matches. It is evident that Slovakia doesn't fit as an opponent of Germany, but do you agree that Slovakia can surprise Germany?
Friendlies don't count for too much obviously... having said that I think this is some additional fairly good evidence that Germany are not a great force at the moment. I was recently on holiday through Europe and I think people would be surprised how much negativity I encountered in Germany about these Euros.

They really do not think this is a good enough side to win the tournament.

On the subject of Slovakia, they are not as bad as anyone makes out genuinely. They needed a draw against England and they played for that and got it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they got something off Germany. Not at all.
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Postby Derbz87 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:09 am

If yesterday's taught us anything its that although France, Germany and Belgium ought to win todays games I'd be looking to back the draw in 90 minutes in all three or as doubles depending on how confident you feel. It's around the 3/1 mark for the first two and 5/2 for Belgium/Hungary. All three games yesterday were watertight and very dull to watch. Germany and France did little to convince me in the groups that they represent value in 90 mins at odds on in both their games whilst as pointed out both Belgium and Hungary are enigmas. Alternatively if you fancy an upset outright laying the three odds on side in 90 mins mean you still win if there are upsets.

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Postby syjytg » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:53 am

Sides bets worthy of a punt:

Germany vs Slovakia first yellow card before 33 minutes - 5/6.
Germany to score a penalty (90 minutes only) - 6/1.

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Postby mazeymay » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:30 am

France v Ireland
Payet, to score from outside the 18 yard box 8/1 skybet
I can see France picking up a few direct free kicks within his range and he will no doubt get a couple of chances to score from open play as well

France, to score 2 or more goals at 10/11 also skybet appeals to me as I think they will score the first goal. Obviously the earlier the better as Ireland would have to be more adventurous as the game wears on

France to win both halves at 3/1 also looks inviting as they will have plenty of possession and I expect the ball to be in Ireland's own 3rd of the pitch for long periods

James McClean, 2/1 to be shown a card will be of interest if he starts the game, susceptible to the odd rash challenge and even more so if the chips are down

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