Euro 2016. The lesser markets

davidg3907
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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:02 pm

The bookings took a while to collect after a very promising start.

You were somewhat unlucky for Joe Allen not to get a second yellow and therefore a red.

Surprising that having led 2-1 in corners after 25 minutes, Wales didn't manage another in the next 25 when they were level, or the last 40+ when trailing.
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Postby davidg3907 » Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:20 am

SF 1 debrief

Portugal v Wales
Portugal seemed to play like a team with 2 different game plans and didn't know which to employ. If they felt that beating Wales would be a problem and went into 'boring' mode as they did against Croatia, it does not bode well for an entertaining final. Only once they scored, and fortuitously got a second soon after, did they seem confident enough to play positively.

With a booking after 7 minutes, probably the earliest so far, a flurry of cards didn't follow. It was only late on that a fifth yellow was brandished, but a deserved late card for the already booked Joe Allen was not handed out as the referee seemed content to keep 22 players on the pitch for the last minute or so.

It was surprising that Wales didn't manage a corner after the two in the first 25 minutes. They have been OK with set pieces, but even going behind didn't produce too many crosses into the box giving the big defenders a chance to get forward for any resultant corner. Portugal won this contest 6-2.

Day 21 Stake 6.50 Return 9.97 Profit 3.47 Nett 1.51
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nors
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Postby nors » Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:24 am

Watched the game in the Pub but when i got home saw there were 5 so made a small profit. A red would have helped!

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Postby davidg3907 » Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:31 pm

SEMI FINAL 2

France v Germany

This match certainly has the potential to be a highly entertaining, hard-fought contest between two heavyweights of the world game. Unfortunately with so much at stake, it could turn into a long drawn out cagey affair.

An early goal is possibly what is required to ensure the former, but we can live in hope.

Germany have more of their main players missing (Hummels suspended, Gomes and Khadira injured), but this will not necessarily mean a less attack-minded approach.

France, being on home soil, may get the crowd on their backs if not going forward.

On balance, I feel the match shouldn't disappoint.

Germany's discipline has been very good on the whole, and with chief culprit Mats Hummels unavailable, a chance is taken on France (for whom Kante returns from suspension) getting the first card. Corals are top price for both France and Germany at 2.00.

However, as much will depend how the match unfolds, caution seems to be the best approach.

First booking 1 pt France @ 2.00 Coral

Total corners 1 pt Over 10.5 @ 2.10 general
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Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:00 am

SF 2 debrief

France v Germany
Thankfully, this escaped the shackles and we were entertained.

I didn't see the first half, but listened on the car radio.

One bad decision may have altered the whole course of a match that Germany dominated.

Can was booked for advising the referee that he didn't agree with him on a certain subject. The time taken for that conversation and the resultant yellow card may have contributed to 2 minutes added time (I can't remember any long stoppage). France got a corner and penalty in that time, so it could have been a very expensive error on Can's part.

As it was a totally stupid and unnecessary booking, I feel aggrieved that it sunk my tip on France to get the first card. A moral victory inasmuch as they got the first card that was a direct result of a foul.

That corner did, however, help the total reach 11, so the corner tip scrambled home.

Unfortunately, N'Golo Kante didn't start. It only took him 4 minutes to get booked once he joined the party.

Day 22 Stake 2.00 Return 2.10 Profit 0.10 Nett 1.41
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Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:56 am

THE FINAL

The last hurrah and it arguably comes down to France, possibly fortunate to be there after being outplayed by Germany, against Portugal, a team who barely deserve to be there judged on most of their efforts.

France v Portugal

France have created corners on a regular basis other than the 'exhibition match' that was the second half against Iceland.

Being fresher than Germany as a result of less effort and an extra day's rest, they were also able to field a full strength side. Their opponents were visibly tiring as well as heads dropping towards the end.

Portugal too, have had one day less to prepare, but probably had an easier game against Wales, particularly once 2-0 in front.

They too have taken several corners, other than the boring episode against Croatia, where they seemed to play the underdog role.

Today, they are the underdogs. Sitting back and hoping to contain France for 90 minutes is unlikely to prove too successful, so we could be in for a match of two teams counter-attacking, usually a good omen for corners IF they then try to cross the ball rather than dribble back to the halfway line.

France also conceded 4 corners against both Romania and Albania in the group stage, so are possibly happier than most teams just to get the ball out of dangerous areas by whatever means available. As Portugal may need to chase the game, a handicap in their favour looks attractive.


Total corners 2 pts Over 10.5 @ 2.12 188Bet

Toal corners 0.5 pt Over 11.5 @ 2.62 SJ


Corner handicap 1 pt Portugal (+1) @ 2.50 BetStars

Turning to bookings, this looks a difficult one. France's cards have been collected largely due to the industrious Kante. I feel he is too important to omit from the starting line-up. Apart from against Germany, they have rarely been under too much pressure, though, which makes avoiding cards easier - particularly with the general leniency of referees in the early stages.

Portugal were recipients of very few cards in the group stages too, but have been making up for it since. They are likely to be pushed to the limits here, and cards for the defence look inevitable. A booking for Ronaldo is always a possibility if times get tough.

Most bookings 1 pt Portugal @ 1.87 BWin.
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