Euro 2016 Best Bets To Make

nors
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Euro 2016 Best Bets To Make

Postby nors » Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:08 pm

There are going to be hundreds of betting markets on offer as we get closer to Euro 2016.

Name The Finalists
To Reach Final
To Finish 2nd
Straight Forecast
Name The Semi Finalists
Big 2 v The Field
Highest Scoring Team
Lowest Scoring Team
To Reach Quarter Final
To Reach Semi Final
All Home Nations Final
Eliminated In Quarter Finals
Eliminated In Round Of 16
Eliminated In Semi Finals
First Time Winner
To Lose Group Games
Win All Group Games
Winner Double Chance
Winning Group

Handicaps
Cards
Goalscorers
HT/FT
Time of First Goal
Bookmakers Speials
Spread Betting
Exchange Betting
Corners
BTTS

Generally i do ok in taking on the overhyped favs both in the groups and individual matches.

I will be really interested in reading the NewsPapers and watching BBC/ITV/SKY over hype a team or player as the next coming, I suspect we will have the usual array of pundits adding no value to the debate, but this affords us bigger prices as they laud a poor or average performance as brilliant.

If there is a market that you think offers a bit of value and a bet worth making please post below.

If there is a favourite that needs to be taken on please post below.

If the bookies have made a pricing error in your opinion please post below.

The more we can alert each other on the BEST BETS to make the more chance we have of winning.

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Postby Cabrera88 » Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:06 am

It's pretty early but a bet that i cannot miss is Albania to be the lowest scoring team @ 7/1. They are in a group with France, Swiss and Romania, all 3 teams with a good defence and in the last 4 matches from qualies they scored only against Armenia.
France as we all know is favorite to win the tournament, they have in defence players like Evra, Sagna or Varane, also Kante in front of them who is having an amazing season with Leicester or Matuidi, a key player for PSG and a great goalie in Lloris.
Swiss might be the problem since their form is pretty low but their problems are bigger in the front than in the back failing to score in the last two games.
Romania is a really hard nut to crack, Spain failed to do it and also pretty much all teams since they ended up the qualies with 2 goals conceded in 10 games.

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Postby whatarethechances » Fri May 06, 2016 10:48 am

France to Reach the Semi Final @ 1.83

Since 1990 there have been 6 Euros and 7 World Cups making a total of 13 major international tournaments. 9 of those tournaments saw a host nation reach at least the Semi-Finals including in the World Cup in 2002 when South Korea surprised everyone. England were arguably a bit of a surprise package too when reaching the SF stage at Euro 96, having failed to qualify for the World Cup in 1994.

The hosts who did NOT reach the Semis were all nations who would not have been expected to do so pre-tournament - Poland, Ukraine, South Africa, Switzerland, Austria, Japan, Belgium, USA. Certainly none of those teams were favourites to win their competition pre-tournament. France, at the time of writing, are. I think it would be a major upset if this selection did not land.

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Postby Ndimele365 » Mon May 23, 2016 6:50 pm

The best bet to make depends on the previous knowledge or information you have about the two meeting teams but I think it's good to start with both teams to score (BTTS) at the early stages of the competition and probably exploit other markets as the tournament progresses. Why? Because most teams are likely to score and conceive goals at the early stages and possibly improve in defence and attack as the tournament progresses.

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Best Euro 2016 bets

Postby stevenh333 » Tue May 24, 2016 4:00 pm

Hey lads, I put together a list of the top 10

20-1 for Russia to lose all of their games is the pick of the bunch

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Postby abulbisht » Wed May 25, 2016 10:17 am

Swiss might be the problem since their form is pretty low but their problems are bigger in the front than in the back failing to score in the last two games.
Romania is a really hard nut to crack, Spain failed to do it and also pretty much all teams since they ended up the qualies with 2 goals conceded in 10 games.

Footballl is not the only sport played in Switzerland and Ice Hockey which is also very popular has its World Championships this year. There has been much coverage in the Swiss press of that, but there is one story about the football team that is getting some attention too. Because of its proximity to the area and its stable economy, many immigrants from the former Yugoslavia settled in Switzerland during and after the troubles during the 1990s. Although they have lived in Switzerland for most of their lives, some national team members were not actually born there. Others were born there to immigrant parents so are what is known in the country as “secondosâ€.

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Postby bookbeating » Wed May 25, 2016 1:27 pm

Russia will win more than one game, they are not the strongest team, but they have resolve. If I have to bet on something, I'm betting on a new Euro champion, one that hasn't been yet.

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Postby TheHawkz » Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:47 pm

What caught my eye was with the addition of 4 of the 6 3rd place teams going through, can I find some value in the "To Qualify from Group" market. Could be some healthy prices for teams expected to finish 2nd-4th in the groups.

First a look at history to see what a team needs to qualify. Iv started in 1996, this is the first year at the Euros where 3 points for a win. Going back further would be a dud sample as teams were more happy back then to play for a draw knowing rivals wouldn't have as big advantage for a win as they do now. In these tournements 3rd place did not qualify but it gives us an idea if they would have.

3rd place teams GD & PTS

YEAR GROUP GD PTS
2004 GROUP C 1 5
2012 GROUP A 2 4
2012 GROUP C 1 4
1996 GROUP C 0 4
1996 GROUP D 0 4
2000 GROUP C 0 4
2004 GROUP A 0 4
1996 GROUP A -1 4
1996 GROUP B -1 4
2000 GROUP D 0 3
2000 GROUP A -1 3
2008 GROUP D -1 3
2012 GROUP B -1 3****
2008 GROUP A -2 3
2012 GROUP D -2 3
2000 GROUP B -3 3
2004 GROUP D -1 2
2004 GROUP B -2 2
2008 GROUP C -2 2
2008 GROUP B -2 1

The first thing this highlights is how you can achive 5 points and still not finish in the top 2! as Italy did in 2004, a win and no defeats and they did not qualify.

The second and far more important to us is if we look at approx the top 66%, teams will probably need better than 3 points with a -2 Goal difference to qualify. it does not mean you will qualify with 3 points and -1 but these stats show your over 50% chance of getting through. So to me this highlights for teams rated 2nd & 3rd in the group, it's important to target beating the 4th rated team in the group by more than 1 goal. That way losing to the other two teams by 1 goal each are you more likely than not to qualify as you will have 3 points and Goal Difference of 0.

To qualify prices for teams 3rd and 4th in the group betting.

Group A - Romania 5/6 , Albania 2/1
Group B - Wales 4/6 , Slovakia 11/10
Group C - Ukraine 1/2 , N.Ireland 11/4
Group D - Czech Rep 10/11 , turkey 10/11
Group E - Sweden 5/6 , Rep. Ireland 5/4
Group F - Iceland 8/11 , Hungary 5/4

For me the price that stands out is Romania, opening games are often poor and i hope they can upset the hosts and get a result, meaning another win should be good enough.

I hope this gives you an idea of how important it is for teams not to panic when they go a goal down, losing by 1 goal could be acceptable, losing by more could mean you need to finish 1st or 2nd to get through.

Good Luck, The Hawkz.

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Re: Euro 2016 Best Bets To Make

Postby tbuckley » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:55 pm


I will be really interested in reading the NewsPapers and watching BBC/ITV/SKY over hype a team or player as the next coming, I suspect we will have the usual array of pundits adding no value to the debate, but this affords us bigger prices as they laud a poor or average performance as brilliant..
I'd say it's 1/10 that the OLBG members know much more than the so called experts & pundits who as you rightly say will be over-hyping somebody or some team.

I don't listen to anything they say, I would not put 1 single penny on anything they recommend, the likes of Alan Shearer will be spouting on pretending to know what they are on about when the truth will be they don't really know, it's much wiser and safer to follow what OLBG members write because they are knowledgeable and take it seriously, only posting relevant facts and useful details that benefit.

With regards to which bets to focus on to get value and which may offer interest then as correctly pointed out there are loads and I've had a interest in a few already.

I've already had a few very small stakes dabbles in the Stage of Elimination market, for those interested you can read my blog covering my views on the top 10 teams at the Euros :-

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411161

I've done a few of the bets I've noted and here is an example of one that I have done :-

"England - Quarter Finals at 9/4

After years of being completely bored watching England international matches, I'll hold my hands up and admit I'm not the most patriotic of England fans and I can't claim to actually have that much personal belief that England will do well at the Euros and I certainly laughed when I saw the 8/1 4th favourite quotes from the bookmakers, England should not be 4th favourites and shouldn't be single figures to win it.

That said I know why the bookmakers have England at 8/1 and it's because of what seems a very kind Group stage draw with Wales, Russia & Slovakia followed by the fact if England win Group B as expected they'll then face one of the third placed teams in the 2nd round, or if they only finish 2nd in Group B then they are still only like to face Austria or Iceland.

So everything looks in place for England to at least reach the Quarter Finals and that's why the bookmakers have taken precaution of making England only 8/1 shots outright, but for me the Quarter Finals is where the fun could well stop for England as they are likely to face one of Portugal/Belgium/Italy and I wouldn't back England in a one off match against any of those countries so 9/4 England to be eliminated at Quarter Finals looks sound value to me."

Many will see that I'm opposing England and have a go at me for that, well I will only ever bet/tip with my head and not my heart and my head tells me again that England won't succeed at this tournament and I can't see them getting beyond the Quarter Finals, I just don't believe they've got the team ethic and mentality to achieve it when it matters.
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Postby tbuckley » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:45 pm

Other potential options that caught my eye when I wrote the Stage of Elimination blog where the fact you could back France to be Runners Up at 9/2 and Spain to be runners up at 5/1 and that's better than what you'd get backing them Each Way if they did lose in the final as it's 1/2 odds on Each Way terms.

so if like me you fancy France and Spain you can potentially back them both to win it outright and both to be runners up in the stage of elimination market, hope that makes sense.

Of course you could also just back France & Spain to be the finalists and that's something that I've also had a small bet on at 10/1, the point is there are different ways to cover your opinions.

Within my All Draw multiples blog for Euro 2016 which I posted today :-

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411269

there are matches I've noted to be Draws in which I think the bookmakers/pundits have got it wrong in terms of putting too much faith in one team over the other when the fixture looks much tighter than odds suggests.

Prime examples in my opinion are the Albania vs Switzerland match, Switzerland vs Romania in Group A, basically I believe that France will walk Group A but then it is completely wide open in terms of who will finish 2nd, 3rd & 4th in that group as I feel that Switzerland, Romania and Albania are all much more closely matched than the odds suggest.

I feel in those matches stated that the bookmakers/pundits are over hyping Switzerland and I don't believe they are as clear of either Albania or Romania as the match odds suggest and I think the value in those games definitely lies in backing the draw or backing Albania Double Chance and Romania Double chance against Switzerland.

That also leads me onto the To Qualify markets and Group Forecast markets in Group A, I've backed Albania to Qualify from A and also backed the France/Albania straight group forecast at 6/1, as stated I believe Albania have just as good a chance of finishing 2nd as either Romania or Switzerland so in my opinion it's worth risking Albania do it as the odds look right to me.

The Group Forecast market also tempted me in Group B, I'm no big fan of England and don't expect a lot from them but they should win Group B and I believe Wales have a better chance than the bookmakers odds suggests, I've backed England/Wales straight group forecast at 5/1.

Overall I'll be cheering on either France or Spain to win it or at least both make the final, Albania to qualify, England to win Group B & Wales finish 2nd, England then to get knocked out in the Quarter Finals and probably via a Ronaldo penalty in shoot-out against Portugal, my draw selections to come good oh and also the 7 teams I've had in a super Heinz all to win, that's not asking for too much is it ? :wink: :lol:
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Postby tbuckley » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:50 pm

I forgot to mention that I think the Germany vs Poland match market is weighted too much in the favour of a Germany win and I think the odds should be much closer.

Germany only achieved 1 more point than Poland in qualifying yet they are odds on to beat Poland and Poland are 5/1, here is a section from the all draw blog which explains my thoughts :-

"Poland only lost 1 of their 10 qualifying matches, Germany actually lost 2, Poland had 3 draws and 6 wins and actually scored an amazing 33 goals, 9 more than Germany, so for all those facts I don't see why there is such a difference."

I expect Germany to win their Group with Poland to qualify through in 2nd but I also believe that it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if Poland actually beat Germany or at least got a draw against them and indeed I've had Germany v Poland Draw at 14/5 in my all draw Lucky 15 on the all draw blog, Poland or Draw Double Chance is also worth consideration in my opinion.
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Re: Euro 2016 Best Bets To Make

Postby titans choice » Tue Jun 07, 2016 11:47 pm

"England - Quarter Finals at 9/4
I agree I think England will make the quarterfinal and if I have worked it out right they will face Portugal and they have a chance but if they lose on penalties with Ronaldo scoring the winning penalty I would not be surprised.

Sorry Buckley just read what you wrote and noticed you ended by predicting Portugal to beat England in Quarterfinals and cant seem to delete this post so had to edit it.
Last edited by titans choice on Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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