KanKeano's OLBG v The Bookies 2008-09

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Postby KanKeano » Sat Sep 13, 2008 6:11 pm

Week 5 - Conclusion

My closing balance above should have been 588.55pts.

Balance - 588.55pts

I can't believe how well it's going so far. 5 from 5 overall and 3 from 3 selections this week. It won't last! The bet was helped out by the defensive mistakes of the two teams and overall Liverpool deserved the win.

Obviously I was really chuffed to tip the Hull win. Wish I'd selected that now but I've got to be happy with the one I choose.

Closing Balance [WK5] - 1213.55pts
P/L - 713.55pts

Balance [WK6] - 1313.55pts
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Postby gecko6 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 6:54 pm

:D :D

superb...still flying and giving yourself some room for the odd duff week... impressed too as I thoguht liv utd would be a boring stalemate...

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Postby KanKeano » Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:32 pm

Week 6

Balance - 1313.55pts

Feel it's going to be a tough weekend to be sure of any results. The 1st week of proper European action gets underway and with 8 of our sides in either competition there are going to be plenty of tired limbs and minds come saturday/Sunday.

Looking over the games quickly 4 sides merit closer inspection on the 1X2 market:

Blackburn v Fulham - 11/10 for a side that has just lost once at home in 2008 looks pretty decent. Obviously they have their defensive worries at the moment but with Nigel Winterburn installed as the new defensive coach I expect this to be ironed out soon.
Fuhma have had a decent start to the season winning 2 out of 3 but they have both come at home and in the past it's been their away form that has let them down.

West Ham v Newcastle - Again 11/10 for the home side in the battle of the sides that have already lost managers. Difference being here that the Hammers have already installed their new man whilst Newcastle seem to be a ship drifting and rudderless at the moment. This will be Zola's 1st game in charge and the re-appearance of Bellamy will be a huge plus point. Against his former side he'll be up for a big performance. As mentioned last week Newcastle have injury worries everywhere and they are really down to the bare bones. The loss of Guthrie through suspension will add these woes and I expect they'll find it hard here.

One negative is the H2H here with Newcastle unbeaten in last 4 visits since 2001.

Man City v Portsmouth - 3/1 for the away win looks juicy. Both sides in European action Thursday night may be a reason to avoid this game but Pompey won't have to travel as they face Guimares at home whilst City travel to Cyprus to take on Nicosia. However looking at the H2H where Pompey haven't won here in the last 5 visits and only 2 wins in their last 7 away games it maybe profitable to look elsewhere.

Tottenham v Wigan - 11/2 Once more at White Hart Lane the value lies with the away side as Tottenham continue to look for their 1st league win of the season. We have not won in our last 6 atg home and with performances like Monday's we won't be for a while yet!

Been really impressed by Wigan and I'm pleased that Amir Zaki has finally made the effort to join a strong league and now he showcasing his talents on a bigger stage. They will be helped by the fact that Tottenham play tomorrow night but thay have a few cup-tied so the likes of Pavylchenko & Corluka will be having a longer rest.

Wigan always give us decent games at the Lane and I expect this to be no different. If I wasn''t a Spurs fan I'd be looking at Wigan seriously but I couldn't bet against my side. However, with the odds on offer I wouldn't be discouraging anybody else from haing a flutter on Wigan.
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Postby KanKeano » Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:15 pm

Bet of the week [WK6]:

West Ham v Newcastle - Home win [2.10 @ bet365] Stake 313.55pts

I can't really get away from this bet. Every angle I look at points to the home side so for me this offer tremendous value.

Closing Balance [WK6] - 1000.00pts
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Postby KanKeano » Sat Sep 20, 2008 5:39 pm

Week 6 - Conclusion

Balance - 1000.00pts

A poor Newcastle side continue to suffer after the departure of Keegan and the fans must be wondering where it is all going to end. Where are the men running this club? Will they please stand up and be counted for the sake of this massive club.

Left in the hands of Chris Hughton [good coach, poor manager] and a Alan Thompson who has only retired last season and joined the coaching staff to gain experience training the youth side but now finds himself assistant to Hughton.

It good for us punters though as they never looked like troubling a hammers side with Zola at the helm. Fantastic reports are coming out of Upton park tonight of a slick, passing performance by the home side from the home fans. I'll take them with a pinch of salt at the moment as they is no way they have improved that much in a week. It's probably just home optimism and I will be more than interested to see how they perform against a better team on the road or at home.

With Blackburn winning as well which I highlighted as a value bet I'm currently on a good run of picking the right games.

Closing Balance [WK6] - 1658.46pts
P/L - 1058.46pts

Balance [WK7] - 1758.46pts
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Postby murt » Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:20 pm

Good call KK - always enjoy your write ups as well as helping me consider my picks - whatever the sport.

May your good luck continue as you travel along life's journey.

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Postby gecko6 » Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:23 am

KK - excellent again mate

but I make the balance £100 more - not sure why you reverted back from £688.55 to £100 less after wk 5 ?

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Postby KanKeano » Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:30 am



You're right. I've just gone throught the figures again. It was WK5 and for some reason I reverted back to the wrong figure. I had the used the correct balance at first! :?

Thanks for picking this up Gecko. :win:

Updated figures below.

Closing Balance [WK6] - 1758.46pts
P/L - 1158.46pts

Balance [WK7] - 1858.46pts
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Postby KanKeano » Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:26 pm

Week 7

Thanks for the words of encouragement earlier Murt. May I extend the same level of kindness to your good self!

Balance - 1858.46pts

Bit of late one this week unfortunately but I should still be able to give the reasons for the games I'm looking at.

Newcastle v Blackburn - Punters & fans have witnessed the demise of Newcastle in recent weeks but hopefully the signs of a recovery a just starting with the appointment of Joe Kinnear. It amazes me how how many ex-Tottenham players were linked with the post so it should come as no surprise to see one installed in the hotseat, abeit temporarily.

Blackburn themselves have had a rocky start to the season but Ince has got some good results, and beating Everton for the second time this season in the cup midweek will have added to their confidence.

Both sides have players missing through injury but perhaps the longer list is still Newcastle's. Blackburn will be missing Robbo who was injured midweek whilst Newcastle have suspensions to contend with.

If history is anything to go by Blackburn hold the upper hand with 4 wins in their last 5 visits to St.James' Park but after Newcastle experienced it's lowest attendance for 16 years midweek, expect the fans to be back supporting their side.

So what we have is expectation against form and because of that it's a hard one to call. If Blackburn had remained at their midweek price of 3.30 I may have had a dabble but they have been reduced to around 2.90 in the last few days so the KK currency is staying in the pocket for this one.

Everton v Liverpool - I had to look twice when I saw the odds of over 3/1 for Everton in this match. I can't believe the bookies are being so generous on the home sides chances. After all this is a local derby which is generally quite an evener when it comes to league form.

Of course the two sides have experienced differing fortunes to the starts of their seasons but you can chuck that book out of the window when it comes to this game. The honours have been pretty even in this game since Moyes took over the stewardship of the Toffees with 2 wins in the last 4 but Liverpool were the victors last season. From what I remember of the game it sticks in my mind that Liverpool won 2-1 with a couple of penalties or goals from Kuyt. I maybe wrong there.

Stevie G, as usual, is normally the catalyst to a good Liverpool performance and they will be looking for his leadership skills again tomorrow after the 0-0 draw against Stoke. You wouldn't put it past him to socre his 100th Liverpool goal at the ground of their local rivals or you would think if Robbie Keane was going to open his account against anybody then this was probably the time to do it.

However, Everton and Moyes are due a good performance at Goodison having not won there yet this season. The return of Cahill should ensure goals for the blues and with Yakubu up front it's not an area they should lack in. At odds at 3/1 it's definately a value bet to consider.


Man Utd v Bolton AH [-2] - I expect this is a bet that a lot of punters are having a look at this week, although this is not a value bet but it is one that has a chance of coming in at reasonable odds.

Despite United's slow start to the season I feel they are coming to the boil now. The return of ronaldo will see there attacking prowess upped a few levels and they can now concentrate on bedding in some decent form on the back of some easier games [compared to the ones they have had so far].

After they opening win over Stoke Bolton have struggled and despite a win or two at Old Trafford earlier in their Premiership experience they have generally been on the end of a bit of a battering here. 5 wins by 2 goals or more for Utd in Boltons last 5 visits tells it own story and they way Bolton were destroyed by the Arsenal youth last week you'd expect a similar tale of woe here.

Of the other games I would be seriously looking at

Portsmouth v Tottenham - Under 2.5 goals - Even in their Keane, Berbatov heyday Tottenham always found this a difficult place to come to. Despite the array of attacking talent on display in the last 5 season not one meeting here has had more than 2 goals.

However this weeks money goes on.......

Bet of the week [WK7]:

Everton v Liverpool - Home win [4.00 @ BetChronicle] Stake 100pts

Not a bet to play a major part of your bank but all the same it offer terrific value. A local derby where the home side, which has finished in the UEFA Cup spots 3 times in the last 5 years, is a 3/1 bet seems to hard to comprehend but it could a nice little earner come 3pm tomoorow afternoon.

Closing Balance [WK7] - 1758.46pts

Good luck with whatever you choose this week. :win:
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Postby eezzee » Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:34 am

Unlucky KK, you're superb winning start had to end sometime I suppose. But excellent tipping none the less, keep it up mate. :win:

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Postby KanKeano » Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:43 pm

You're right eezee. It had to finish at some point. I didn't go OTT on it so not too bad.

The fact Everton were played off the park didn't help matters!

Closing Balance [WK7] - 1758.46pts
P/L - 1058.46pts

Balance [WK8] - 1858.46pts
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Postby Liverpool1985 » Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:04 pm

This is brilliant. I wish i had checked here earlier for tips lol. Great stuff mate. Hope you continue to bash the bookies. Fantastic writes ups. Brilliant :D

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