Fairfranco's olbg v the bookies 08/09 thread

fairfranco
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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 06, 2009 4:27 pm

not a draw as Liverpool won 2-0 :lose:

Bank after week 25 = £3680.90

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Week 26 top up bank now = £3780.90
Join my Last Man Standing competition - £10 entry, with half the money going into the prize pot and half towards Headway, the charity I'm running for in the London Marathon. RunLastMan

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 06, 2009 4:27 pm

here's my write ups from the saturday bet thread:

I'm normally lazy in making tips but today I'll go for it.

Man City v Middlesborough

This is my last man standing pick of the week and so in theory the team I think are most likely to win their game. Everyone loves bashing Man City but look at their home record and you'll find 7 wins and 5 losses, and third place in the 6 game home form record. 11 goals scored and 4 goals conceded.

Look at Boro and you'll find 1 point from their last 6 away and only 2 wins and 2 draws all season away from home and noly 2 goals scored in those last 6.

Boro's form is pretty horrific at the moment and the way their playing there's only one way their going.

Man City to win @ 1.64 - (5% of bank)


Blackburn v Aston Villa

Similar to the game above but in reverse. Villa have an outstanding away form and have won their last 6 away games, scoring 10 and conceeding 3 putting them easily top of the away form table. They played midweek but rested quite a few players. They now have Ashley Young back as well.

On the other hand Blackburn are unbeaten under Allerdyce and have been looking much better.

I was considering backing Aston Villa but with Blackburn's form I may go with a Lay of Blackburn.

Lay Blackburn @ 3.05 (2% stake)

Everton v Bolton (through toffee eyes)

After 5 of the toughest games going Everotn have come through Liverpool 3 teams with 3 draws, a draw against Arsenal and a 1-0 loss to Man Utd. Not many teams would be upset with that. However with the thread bare squad 6 of the 11 have played every single minute of every one of those games. The others have played pretty much all with neville discounted from my list only going off in the second half of extra time on Wednesday and Cahill only going off 5 minutes from the end against Arsenal.

I've no doubt the side will be fatigued after the performance despite buzzing from the late winner. Piennar maybe a doubt after picking up a knock against Liverpool also. There is the addition of loan signing of Jo though I wouldn't be suprised to see him on the bench rather than starting.


Everton's league record speaks for itself, despite the games they've played they still have the 6th best 6 game form (3-2-1) having scored 8 and conceded just 3. The defence has been awesome of late and I don't see Bolton getting past them.

Bolton have only picked up one win and one draw from their last 6 games, scoring 5 and conceeding 10.

Head to head Everton have have won 6 of the last 10 inclduing 4 of the last 5 games.

I really feel the only thing holding this back from being a definate Everton bet is the tough run of games and 120 minutes on Wednesday. I fancy this to be a tough tie eventually won 1-0.

Everton to win 1-0 @ 7 (0.5% stake)

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76 (5% stake)
Join my Last Man Standing competition - £10 entry, with half the money going into the prize pot and half towards Headway, the charity I'm running for in the London Marathon. RunLastMan

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 06, 2009 4:29 pm

my choice from those game is going to be Man City to win.

I'm going to be it with 10% of my bank (plus a few quid to round it up a bit!).

Bet Manchester City to beat Middlesborough £400 @ 1.66 (Coral)
Join my Last Man Standing competition - £10 entry, with half the money going into the prize pot and half towards Headway, the charity I'm running for in the London Marathon. RunLastMan

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 13, 2009 5:19 pm

just the 1-0 but a wins a win! :win:

Week 26 profit = £264


Bank after week 26 = £4044.90


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Week 27, bank = £4144.90


Not going to go through all the games this week though I'm not a huge fan of betting on FA Cup games. I think the lower league sides all ahve a decent chance against the Premiership sides tomorrow especially Swansea who have been playing well against Fulham who aren't a great home team.

I'm going to go with West Ham though who have been playing very well under Zola and have started to put together some excellent results winning 4 of their last 7 home games.

I think with their safe mid table league position they will be keen to progress in the cup while Boro sat proceriously in the relegation zone will not be treating this as a priority.

I'm not going to put in a big stake as with it being a cup game you just never can tell.

West Ham to beat Middlesborough £200 @ 1.83

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Postby fairfranco » Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:42 am

well suprisingly West Ham didn't beat Boro! a 1-1 draw with the hammers coming back from 1-0 down.


bank after week27 = £3944.90

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Top up for week 28 = £4144.90



I'm only writing up the game that i've picked this week.

Newcastle v Everton

Newcastle aren't having a good season and recent form doesn't look good for them with a 3-4-5 record home and away record along with a 1-3-2 home form.

Everton on the other hand have a 6-5-1 record home and away and a 2-2-1 away ffrom home. The draws being 3 draws against Liverpool, 1 against Arsenal and 1 against Chelsea. The only loss being against Man Utd.

Everton now welcome what looks to be an easier run of games though they will miss a couple of players through suspension this weekend. Most importantly Tim Cahill but Tony Hibbert will also be out from the Everton defence which has only conceeded 5 goals in the last 12 games with 7 clean sheets.

They will also miss key players Fellaini, Osman and Pienaar.

Cahill will be replaced by Jo who was cup tied last week after his excellent 2 goal debut.

All of these missing players really should make me think again but Everton have continued to get results so far this year despite a lot of injuries, youngsters Jack Rodwell and Gosling have stepped up to the team well and Saha may also be in with a shout of making an appearence this weekend.

Newcastle will be without Owen but do welcome back Gutierrez and Martins may be back in the squad.

This won't be an easy one for Everton given the number of players out but I think the tight defence even without Hibbert will be able to keep Newcastle out and knick a goal with Jo my likely scorer.


Stake for this will be pretty low, my confidence isn't all that high but I like the price.


Back Everton to beat Newcastle £300 @ 2.6

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Postby fairfranco » Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:19 am

loses :lose:

For all the reasons I said Everton may struggle they sruggled. Losing Arteta early on didn' thelp but Newcastle going down to 10 men should have given Everton enough to beat Newcastle but it wasn't to be.

loss = £300

Bank after week 28 = £3844.90


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top up for Week 29 = £4044.90

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Postby fairfranco » Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:28 am

an interesting pick of 8 games this weekend. In todays games 4 top 6 placed teams play 4 much lower placed teams.

Of Arsenal v Fulham I quite like the under 2.5 goals bet at 1.8. As someone has already said on the tips thread Arsenal have scored under 2.5 in over 60% of home games. Fulham are tight at the back and have given the top teams some tough games. This is the kind of game Arsenal struggle in at the Emirates.

In fact nothing else really stands out for me.

That's my bet then!

i'm going to go with £500, a big bet with some confidence, also looking at making some cash back after a couple of losers!

Back Arsenal v Fulham under 2.5 goals 500@ 1.8

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Mar 20, 2009 5:38 pm

I've completely neglected olbg v bookies for the last week with it completely slipping my mind in between a holiday.

but i've got one this week so will get it in there before i'm away again!

first off my last tip won with Arsenal failing to beat fulham and drawing 0-0.

Week 29 profit = £400 :win:

Bank after week 29 = £4444.90

If tipstonga is right on his week selection then wre on week 32 and I need to add on 3 weeks of top ups.

Top up to week 32 = £5000.90



Here's my tip info, I haven't looked at the games throughouly at all but the Everton game leapt out at me, partly maybe because i'm going but looks good value to me:

Portsmouth v Everton

Portsmouth have lost 5 of their last 8 games with 2 draws and just 1 win. They seem to have shown occasional signs of digging their way out but it just hasn't happend so far and at 4th from bottom they really need to pick some points up desperately.

They have the second worst home form in the league with 1 win and 5 losses in their last 6 games and have conceded on average 2 goals a game away from home only scoring 5.

Jermaine Pennant got injured in Portsmouths last game and will be out as well as Bouba Diop and marc Wilson.

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Everton have the best away form in the league with 5 wins and 1 draw and have only lost 1 game in their last 12 and have 7 wins out of 14 on the road.

Everton are missing many key players and have been struggling with injuries all season but have somehow managed to keep the results coming.

Performances of late haven't been as good as earlier on in the season but with no Arteta at the heart of midfield that is understandable. The main attack comes from Baines and Piennar up the wing and Cahill in the box. Jo looks too light weight for me but has chipped in with a few goals and is decent on the ball.

Everton are brimming with confidence at the moment and for the first time all season Moyes has been talking up places above him which is something he tends not to do as he is usually very cautious about setting expectations to high. I don't see Everton making 4th but the players and managers are confident enough in how their doing to mention it and with Villa slipping up and now playing Liverpool they will be really determined for the result. As well as the league position they won't have forgotten the embaressing 3-0 loss at Goodision that they suffered to Portsmouth early in the season.


I'm sure if you didn't know already you'll have guessed that I'm an Everton fan but I feel that Evertons odds of 2.66 (Betfair) represent absaloutely huge value.

Everton to win 600 @ 2.66

Stake based on my confidence, will be anice win for me if it comes in! :hope:

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Postby gecko6 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:46 pm

hi FF

ok... few things to sort !

balance now after wk32 is £4044.90

you have had a lot of missing weeks (6)and the top ups so thats fine.. I'll just keep going until wk 40 so you will have had £4k in topups...

there are 6 wks left and you have 8 bets left to do (inc 8 top ups)

top up wk 33 is £100
bank > 4144.90

good luck

:win:

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