ipoh's olbg v the bookies 08/09 thread

Ipoh Shark
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Postby Ipoh Shark » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:34 am

Opening balance = 875.5
Bolton v Man City - Bolton AH 0 @ 2.375 :win:
Bet= 100
Returns= 237.5

Closing balance = 1013
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1113

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-7l, 1177.5, 990.5, [1300], -187) W LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:07 am

i'll try to keep it simple with the AH this week.

Wigan v Stoke
Early kickoff at the same time as the battle of the Reds. So, slightly lower bets will be on this one. Hard to call this one as Wigan have the legs of Zaki while Stoke have the throw of Delap! Who says u cannot score with ur hands in soccer? No one wants to admit that Stoke scored directly from a throw against Arsenal!
60-40 to Wigan.
Wigan AH -0.5 @ 1.8 - 60%

Hull v Bolton
This is a tricky one. Hull are 6th while Bolton are 3rd from bottom. Bolton are not good playing away; 1w-0d-4l, gs4, ga8. Hull had just shown plenty of spirit coming from 4-1 down at Old Trafford to nearly walking away with 1 point. Form team against a relegation candidate which does not know how to play away and the AH is only -0/0.5 to the home team?
Surely, all the "smart" money will be on Hull to risk half for full. Have to wait until nearer to the game to see how the betting pattern for this one goes. i will take the lighter side, ie odds against team on AH.
Bolton AH +0/0.5 @ 1.9 - 80%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:25 am

Sunderland v Portsmouth
Really fear for Pompey now that Harry is not around. Adams look lightweight in the managerial role and i think this will be another clueless display by Pompey.
The Black Cats will be written off by many after their 5-0 thrashing by Chelsea but i still think they are a different proposition at home.
Previous h2h here 2-0, 1-4, 2-0, 2-1, 1-1.
Sunderland AH -0/0.5 @ 2.075 - 80%

West Ham v Everton
The Hammers under Zola are mediocre at best. Everton are nicking some nice late winners. Everton appear to be better playing away than at home this season, 3w-1d-1l on the road.
Previous h2h here 0-2, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2, 0-1. Everton winning more than Hammers even though they are playing away.
Everton AH 0 @ 2.025 - 85%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:46 am

Villa v Boro
Villa will be tired after playing in the UEFA Cup at Prague. Boro have always performed better when they play against the Big 4 and Big 4 wannabees...so this will be a + for Boro.
Previous h2h here 1-1, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0, 0-2. Only 1 Villa win of >1 goal in the last 5, Boro will have won on AH +0.5/1 4 of the last 5 times and lost only half.
Boro AH +0.5/1 @ 2 - 85%

Man City v Spurs
Call it luck, Harry Magic or whatever but the momentum is all with Spurs now. Spurs only need to sort out the Flapping Gomez now to make the team more steady. Man City will not have a good run before Christmas or else how will Hughes convince Dubai moneybags to go for the big name players? No point chopping and changing a winning team.
Spurs AH +0/0.5 @ 1.975 - 70%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:39 am

would like to take Bolton again after they gave me a win last week, but Everton and Sunderland looks juicier. Sunderland gets my vote cos Everton might give some cheer to West Ham's owner who's desperate to sell the club after running into financial difficulties.

Opening balance = 1113
Sunderland v Portsmouth- Sunderland AH -0/0.5 @ 2.075
Bet= 113
Returns= ???

Closing balance = 1000
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1000

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-7l, 1177.5, 990.5, [1300], -187) W LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Mon Nov 10, 2008 7:43 am

i agree, john. how else can u explain getting only 2 out of 6 wrong n after shortlisting getting the only loser out of the 3? never mind, life goes on...

Opening balance = 1113
Sunderland v Portsmouth- Sunderland AH -0/0.5 @ 2.075
Bet= 113
Returns= 0

Closing balance = 1000
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1100

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-8l, 1290.5, 990.5, [1400], -300) LW LWLLL LLDLW

Ipoh Shark
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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Nov 13, 2008 8:50 am

Blackburn v Sunderland
Had Sunderland to win in midweek but the own goal/penalty jinx hit again. if Blackburn can win away, then they should be giving at least the do-or-die AH of -0.5 when they are at home. However, the AH is still maintained at -0/0.5 so it appears favourable to take Blackburn.
A bit too easy to take Blackburn for this one.
Sunderland AH +0/0.5 @ 2.075 - 60%

Fulham v Spurs
i thot this one was a no-brainer before looking at the stats.
1) Fulham 4w-1d-1l at home vs Spurs 1w-2d-3l away (of course most of them were not under Harry),
2) Previous h2h here 3-3, 0-4, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0. Only 1 win in the last 5 for Spurs.
Stats say Fulham but form says Spurs. i think form comes b4 stats.
Spurs AH -0/0.5 @ 1.975 - 75%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 14, 2008 9:46 am

Newcastle v Wigan
Simplest one this week if u trust the stats. The home side has won the last 7 h2h between this pair. Previous h2h here 1-0, 2-1, 3-1. Newcastle are odds against to repeat the feat this time according to bookies, but bogey teams will be bogey teams.
Newcastle AH -0.5 @ 2.1 - 80%

West Ham v Portsmouth
Feels like a dumb vs dumber game, after this one we'll know which is which...Nothing much to go with as both are so bad now. However, previous h2h appear to favour Pompey, 0-1, 1-2, 2-4, 1-1, 6-0; Pompey won the last 3 here and the 6-0 loss was in 1958! Bogey team again?
Portsmouth AH 0 @ 2.05 - 80%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 14, 2008 9:49 am

It'll be a toss up between the 2 bogey team clashes, Newcastle or Portsmouth. think i'll take the higher risk one...

Opening balance = 1100
Newcastle v Wigan- Newcastle AH -0.5 @ 2.1
Bet= 100
Returns=

Closing balance = 1000
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1100

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-8l, 1290.5, 990.5, [1400], -300) LW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:05 pm

Stoke v West Brom
1) Stoke are 15th while WB are rock bottom. Stoke have a 4w-0d-2l, gs10, ga9 home record while WB are 1w-1d-4l, gs2, ga10 on the road. 4 home wins vs 4 away losses and Stoke have a GD of +1 at home compared to WB who have a GD of -8 away.
2) Previous h2h here 3-1, 1-0, 4-1, 0-0, 2-1; 4 wins out of the last 5 and 1 draw for Stoke.
With the above stats, I expected Stoke to give a do-or-die AH of at least -0.5 to West Brom, this would be reasonable as I view this as a relegation 6-pointer. Against a team who concentrates only on defending in away games, this one should be a one-way Stoke game.
However, why is Stoke, playing at home, giving only 0/0.5 to a poor West Brom? Most punters will be jumping on Stoke as it would mean risking only half for a very probable full win. Stoke should go to AH -0.5 before kickoff as money is poured into them.
1x2- away @ 3.25 – 80%
AH- WB AH +0/0.5 @ 1.975 – 90%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:06 pm

Stoke v West Brom
1) Stoke are 15th while WB are rock bottom. Stoke have a 4w-0d-2l, gs10, ga9 home record while WB are 1w-1d-4l, gs2, ga10 on the road. 4 home wins vs 4 away losses and Stoke have a GD of +1 at home compared to WB who have a GD of -8 away.
2) Previous h2h here 3-1, 1-0, 4-1, 0-0, 2-1; 4 wins out of the last 5 and 1 draw for Stoke.
With the above stats, I expected Stoke to give a do-or-die AH of at least -0.5 to West Brom, this would be reasonable as I view this as a relegation 6-pointer. Against a team who concentrates only on defending in away games, this one should be a one-way Stoke game.
However, why is Stoke, playing at home, giving only 0/0.5 to a poor West Brom? Most punters will be jumping on Stoke as it would mean risking only half for a very probable full win. Stoke should go to AH -0.5 before kickoff as money is poured into them.
1x2- away @ 3.4 – 80%
AH- WB AH +0/0.5 @ 1.975 – 90%

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:19 pm

Opening balance = 1100
Stoke v West Brom- West Brom AH +0/0.5 @ 1.975 :lose:
Bet= 100
Returns= 0

Closing balance = 1000
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1100

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-10l, 1490.5, 990.5, [1600], -500) LLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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