ipoh's olbg v the bookies 08/09 thread

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:31 am

my pick for the week will be:

Poland AH -1 @ 2
bet = 50

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:47 am

Opening balance= 300

Boro AH -1 @ 2.125 v Stoke City
Bet = 100 :) push

Closing balance= 300

Top up= 100
Opening balance= 400
Poland AH -1 @ 2 v Slovenia
Bet = 50 :lose:

Closing balance= 350

Top up= 100
Opening balance = 450

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:04 am

Fulham v Bolton
Previous h2h here ended 2-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0.
Fulham are giving only AH -0/0.5 to Bolton, which is very favourable to the home considering that Fulham have won 3 of the last 4 h2h here. Take into account that Fulham took care of the Gunners in their 1st home game while Bolton lost their away game, it appears even rosier for Fulham takers to be able to only risk half for a full return. Quite suspicious this one, should be avoided. If forced, will take:
AH- Fulham AH -0/0.5 @ 1.925
U/O- Over 2/2.5 goals @ 1.9 (The goal line is also suspicious as previous h2h have shown that there are normally a minimum of 2 goals in this tie. So, being able to get on Over 2/2.5 means giving the chance for punters to risk half stake for a full return.)

Newcastle v Hull
Do not know how anyone can bet on Newcastle when their supporters are going to boycott the team. Hull hardly look like a team which can treaten Newcastle even when the Magpies are headless! Leave.

Portsmouth v Boro
Boro always surprise when they come up against big teams, in this case a big team wannabe, even more so when they are playing away and no one expects them to get a point here. Pompey look a very physical team and with the referees slightly favouring home teams, this is one game which many will side on the home side. Close, so will not call this one now.

West Brom v West Ham
This one should have been an easy one but for the change in manager in West Ham. Cannot understand why West Brom are made the slight favourites for this one even though they are playing at home...
1) West Brom are yet to win a game this season,
2) Previous h2h here ended 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-3 (in 1986). In the 05/06 season, West Ham did the double over West Brom winning both home and away 1-0.
AH- West Ham AH +0/0.5 @ 1.85 (cannot see how the Baggies can afford to give a handicap to the Hammers)
U/O- <2/2.5 @ 2.125 (very nice price for a tie which might end up 1-0 again)

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:52 am

Opening balance = 450

West Ham AH +0/0.5 @ 1.85
Bet= 100

Closing balance = 350

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:06 pm

Sunderland v Boro
This is the early game, so i expect bets to be more concentrated on the favourite team. The big question is which team is the favourite here? The bookies are rating the home team as slight favourites, but Boro have caught the eye of many, particularly when they have shown that they have no problems scoring (6 goals in 4 matches thus far) unlike the home team who have only scored 3 times in their 4 games. The only downside of backing Boro for this one is their habit of not performing against teams other than the Big 4 and Big 4 wannabes.
Previous h2h here ended 3-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-1, 1-0. With their record of winning 3 of the last 5 here, plus the fact that punters do not need a Boro win to win their bet, I foresee Boro to be the more heavily bet on side.
Shortlist
AH- Sunderland AH -0/0.5 @ 2.025
U/O- Over 2.5 @ 2.075 (Sunderland are desperate for their 1st home goal of the season, this might leave them vulnerable on the counter and Boro can take advantage. Both teams concede an average of 1.5 goals per game. Moreover, their last 3 meetings here have produced 5, 3 and 4 goals.)

Blackburn v Fulham
Blackburn are currently in 18th place, 3rd from bottom; a spot I would have expected Fulham to be pre-season. Fulham are 7th despite playing 1 game less than almost everyone, but I cannot see them any higher than this. Previous h2h here 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-3, 0-2.
Santa Cruz missed a few chances against Arsenal in the previous game but I think he is regaining his sharpness in front of goal. I might consider him as a anytime goalscorer if the price is right.
Shorlist
1x2- home @ 2 (pays better than the AH -0.5 @ 1.975, for the same result)
U/O- Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 (It is no secret that Blackburn are having problems at the back. Their 11 goals conceded in 4 games is the worst in the BPL. In order to win this one, they need to outscore Fulham.)

West Ham v Newcastle
In my books, both teams do not deserve to win this one for the way they treated their former manager.
Betting wise, a big plus for the Hammers is the new manager syndrome; Zola should be in charge of his 1st home match this week. The new manager will win his 1st match in charge, even if his opponent is any of the Big 4! West Ham are 100% at home while Newcastle have yet to register an away win. Mentally, the Hammers should be on top as they have a new man in charge while Newcastle are planning a fire sale.
Previous h2h here 2-2, 0-2, 2-4, 2-2, 3-0. The not so impressive h2h record is a big minus for siding with the home side for this one.
Shortlist
AH- West Ham AH -0/0.5 @ 1.775 (I would rank new manager syndrome above historical h2h record.)
U/O- Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (I prefer this bet as this would have come in 4 times out of 5 in previous meetings. Zola has also said that his style is attacking much like his opponents, Newcastle. This could be one where both teams play with no defence.)

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:07 pm

West Brom v Villa
Villa look very impressive in their away win against Spurs and I believe that they will be challenging for a European spot come end of the season. West Brom have just registered their 1st win of the season in front of their supporters and that is a big monkey off their backs.
Previous h2h here 1-2, 1-1, 0-0, 0-3, 1-0.
Shortlist
AH- Villa AH -0/0.5 @ 2.05 (with no losses to the home team in their last 4 h2h here, getting on Villa is like risking a half stake for a full return.)

Hull v Everton
Hull look to have recovered from their 5-0 home hammering; registering an impressive away win against Newcastle. However, their current 5th should be the highest position for them this season. Everton are still 100% on their travels and they will fancy their chances against a team who conceded 5 in their last home match.
Shortlist
AH- Everton AH -0/0.5 @ 2.025 (cannot see Hull handing Everton their 1st away loss this season, so I’ll risk half for full again.)

Man City v Portsmouth
I do believe that Man City will be the next Chelsea when the oil money starts flowing in. However, they only have 1 piece of their puzzle in, ie Robinho. Portsmouth are one of the physically bigger side this season and Man City will find themselves frustrated by fouls preventing their Brazilians from playing their flowing game. I think Man City are one of the teams everyone will want to beat now before more big stars join their rank, then it will take years before anyone can beat them at home, much like Chelsea at home now.
Previous h2h here 3-1, 0-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-1.
Shorlist
AH- Portsmouth AH +0.5 @ 1.9

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:43 am

Opening balance = 450

Hull v Everton AH -0/0.5 @ 2.025
Bet= 100

Closing balance = 350

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(1w-1d-3l, 432.5, 282.5, [600], -150) LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:03 am

Opening balance = 450

Hull v Everton AH -0/0.5 @ 2.025 :lose: half
Bet= 100

Closing balance = 400
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 500

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(1w-1d-4l, 532.5, 332.5, [700], -200) L LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:51 am

Villa v Sunderland
Villa are 1w-1d-0l at home but Sunderland have a similar 1w-1d-0l record on their travels. Many will be banking on Villa to deliver another straightforward win in this one but I don’t think it’s as easy as that. Villa played their Carling Cup match a day later than Sunderland and thus will have less rest plus they have to reserve some strength for their European exploits.
Previous h2h here ended 0-1, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0.
Shortlist
AH- Sunderland AH +1 @ 1.8 (Sunderland have scored 3 and conceded 2 goals on the road. From their 5 games played to date they have scored 5 and conceded 6. So, they average only 1 goal scored and conceded per game this season. Moreover. Villa have not managed to notch a win by >1 goal the last 5 times they played here.)
U/O- Under 2.5 goals @ 2 (a slightly odds against bet which I feel is worth risking; both teams will be tired after their Carling Cup matches, Sunderland being taken to penalties by Northampton. Goals might be at a premium when both teams look to cut down on mistakes due to fatigue.)

Fulham v West Ham
This is one that I would gladly leave alone. Fulham are relying on home form to see them through this season; 2w-0d-0l thus far. West Ham are woeful on the road; 0w-0d-2l gs2, ga6. I would favour the home team for this one but a check on their h2h shows that West Ham appear to be Fulham’s bogey team. Last 5 h2h here show 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1; West Ham winning 4 of their 5 meetings. The last time Fulham won this tie at home was a 4-2 in 1966, over 40 years ago!
Shorlist
AH- West Ham AH +0/0.5 @ 1.95 (I always believe in bogey teams)
U/O- Under 2.5 goals (Fulham protect their home turf very well, conceding only 1 goal thus far. In fact, their results to date show 2w-0d-2l, gs4, ga4; average of 1 goal scored and conceded. Fulham will be wary of West Ham who have scored 11 goals in their 5 matches played. So, I expect Fulham to approach this game the same way they dealt with Arsenal. If they can keep the Gunners silent then the Hammers should be easier to repel.)

Boro v West Brom
Many will expect Boro to keep their 100% home record when they entertain West Brom, but Boro have to maintain their reputation of being unpredictable, and showdowns against lower table teams are exactly the time when Boro do not deliver as expected. West Brom are 0w-1d-1l, gs0, ga1 on their travels, I would read this as an ultra conservative approach to away games.
Previous h2h here ended 2-2, 2-2, 4-0, 3-0, 1-0.
Shortlist
AH- West Brom AH +0.5 @ 2.1
U/O- Under 2.5 goals (disregarding past history here, where the last 4 have ended with >3 goals. I think West Brom will park the bus again.)

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:58 am

Newcastle v Blackburn
This one will much depend on whether the Newcastle takeover is on; just look at Man City’s response when they played at home in front of their soon to be owner. St James is never an easy place to get a point. However, Blackburn have managed to get not 1 point but 3 points the last 3 times they visited. Bogey team to strike again?
Previous h2h here ended 0-1, 0-2, 0-1, 3-0, 0-1.
Shortlist
AH- Blackburn AH +0.25 @ 1.75 (the returns put me off slightly as I do not like risking a full stake for only a potential ¾ return.)
U/O- Over 2.5 goals @ 2 (both teams are leaky at the back, especially Blackburn who have conceded 11 goals in their 5 matches played. Newcastle have also conceded 9 goals in their 5 played, average of nearly 2 goals conceded per match.)

Portsmouth v Spurs
Pompey have a long injury list it seems and injuries to one or two key players will affect them much as they do not have the squad depth of the bigger teams. Spurs are always poison to AH punters early every season. It is very difficult to see when their losing streak will end, but before that happens I would oppose Spurs on the AH. Pompey will want a good showing in front of their own supporters after the 6-0 Man City thrashing and then 0-4 at home against Chelsea yesterday.
Previous h2h here ended 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 2-0.
Shortlist
AH- Spurs AH 0 @ 2.05 (Without Berbatov and Keane, Spurs are like a lion without teeth, and when this happens the mighty lion will be bullied by the lowly dog.)
U/O- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 (None of their last 5 h2h had > 2 goals in them. Yes, Pompey conceded 10 goals in their last 2 matches but I would expect Harry to plug the hole by now. It is not often u see back to back to back thrashings for any team.)

Wigan v Man City
Current form should favour Man City to come up tops in this one. SWP looks to have regained his form and his pace should give any team a headache. Add the 3 Brazilians, Robinho, Elano and Jo, and there is samba magic on the pitch. The only downside is Brazilians sometimes overplay the ball around the penalty area and tend to drift away from the game when they do not score. Wigan at home are 0w-1d-1l, gs1, ga2; yet to win in front of their own supporters.
Previous h2h here 1-1, 4-0, 4-3, 1-1, 0-1.
Shortlist
AH- Man City -0/0.5 @ 2 (Against a team which has only won once in 5 and none at home. The only risk for this one is losing a half stake in the event of a draw.)
U/O- >2/2.5 @ 1.95 (Wigan cannot let Man City do all the attacking in their home game; they know that the floodgates will open if Man City get the 1st goal. However, against the highest scoring team in the BPL, who average 3 goals scored every game, I doubt they can hold out for long.)

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:59 am

Opening balance = 500

Portsmouth v Spurs AH 0 @ 2.05
Bet= 100

Closing balance = 400
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 500

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(1w-1d-4l, 532.5, 332.5, [700], -200) L LLDLW

Ipoh Shark
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Posts: 3830
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 11:00 pm

Postby Ipoh Shark » Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:41 am

Opening balance = 500

Portsmouth v Spurs AH 0 @ 2.05 :lose:
Bet= 100

Closing balance = 400
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 500

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(1w-1d-5l, 632.5, 332.5, [800], -300) LL LLDLW

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