ipoh's olbg v the bookies 08/09 thread

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 28, 2008 7:36 am

Boro v Newcastle
It is usual for Boro to save themselves for the Big 4 or Big 4 wannabees and underestimate teams which are below them. No one wants to buy Newcastle now so they extended the deadline to Feb 2009 to sell the club. Thus, i favour Newcastle to get at least 1 point here. Previous h2h seems to point to Newcastle as it ended 2-2, 1-0, 1-2, 2-2, 0-1 the last 5 times they met here.
Newcastle AH +0.5 @ 1.775

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 28, 2008 7:48 am

Stoke v Hull
1x2 odds at 2.4: 3.4: 2.87, seems to be a 50-50 game. With both promoted sides away from the relegation zone, i think they will be happy to accumulate any points at this stage. Cannot see a winner here, Stoke are 5w-0d-2l at home while Hull are 4w-2d-1l on the road; Stoke only lost to Everton (better away record than at home) and Chelsea (top dog), while Hull gave MU a scare b4 losing their unbeaten away record at Old Trafford. Both records equally impressive.
Last 3 h2h here 1-1, 1-1, 0-3, drawn 2 of the last 3.
Since it is so difficult to find a winner for this one, why try?
Draw @ 3.4

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Nov 28, 2008 7:58 am

will try my luck with 1x2 this week.

Opening balance = 1100
Stoke v Hull - Draw @ 3.4
Bet= 100
Returns=

Closing balance = 1000
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1100

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(4w-1d-10l, 1490.5, 990.5, [1600], -500) LLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:59 am

Opening balance = 1100
Stoke v Hull - Draw @ 3.4 :win:
Bet= 100
Returns= 340

Closing balance = 1340
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1440

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(5w-1d-10l, 1590.5, 1330.5, [1700], -260) WLLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:59 am

Quick run through some of this weekend's matches.

Fulham v Man City
Should be easy. Fulham 5w-1d-1l at home while MC 1w-2d-4l on the road. Previous h2h here 3-3, 1-3, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2.
Fulham are relying on their home results to see them to safety this season as i hv no reason to doubt their willingness to win this one. Man City also had a midweek UEFA Cup game so some of their players might be feeling the effects of that.
1x2- draw @ 3.25 (3 of the last 5 have been draws, both teams will try hard not to lose this one.)
AH- Fulham AH 0 @ 2 (on a draw no bet, surely the team to go for is the team which wins more and losses fewer; Fulham only 1 loss at home while Man City only 1 win away.)

Newcastle v Stoke
Another easy one. Newcastle are also relying on their home form for survival. All 3 wins they have this season have come from home. Newcastle are currently 17th while Stoke are 14th. Surely they will want to put Stoke in their place as soon as possible.
It all depends on when and whether Newcastle can open up the Stoke defence. Stoke are 0w-2d-5l, gs3, ga15 on the road; not difficult to see how they approach their away games.
Stoke had to endure a 0-1 home loss to Derby in their midweek Carling Cup game. That would have taxed the Stoke players both mentally and physically.
Fresher, at home, against a woeful traveller with 0 wins, there appears to be no reason for Newcastle to flip again at home.
1x2- home @ 1.8
AH- Newcastle AH -0.5/1 @ 1.95

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:06 am

Opening balance = 1440

Fulham v Man City- Fulham AH0 @ 2 :) push
Bet= 140
Returns= 140

Closing balance = 1440
Top up= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1540

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(5w-2d-10l, 1690.5, 1430.5, [1800], -260) D WLLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:37 am

i missed quite a few weeks, if i'm not mistaken 5 weeks in total, so i'll just add 500 to the balance...pls correct me if i'm wrong.

Opening balance = 1540

Top ups= 500

Opening balance for coming week= 1540

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(5w-2d-10l, 1690.5, 1430.5, [1800], -260) D WLLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:53 am

i'll try a different approach to this weeks games; i've refrained from looking at the h2h stat, form and also the league table as they could all be deceiving bearing in mind that the season changes 180 degrees for some clubs after the new year.

Blackburn v Newcastle
Big Sam and gang will have an advantage here as they had a rest last week while Newcastle had to slog for a 2-2 draw at home. From his days at Bolton, we know that Big Sam always emphasize on a strong home result. If Blackburn can muffle Owen, then they will have a chance to register a home win.
Blackburn AH -0/0.5 @ 1.825

Bolton v MU
Based on past experience, after Christmas is the time when MU flex their muscles right up to the end of the season. No reason to think otherwise, more so after Sir Alex's spat with Rafa.
MU AH -1/1.5 @ 2.05

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:41 am

Chelsea v Stoke
Chelsea seem to have lost their glitter after the takeover of MC. It seems a matter of time b4 Scolari get the sack and even worse Roman pulling out of the team altogether. Bearing in mind that Chelsea had to play in the FA Cup only a few days earlier and Stoke holding Lpool to a draw last week, a 2 goal headstart for Stoke is a high hurdle for Chelsea to overcome. i expect this line to come down to AH -1.5/2 before the game as money go into Stoke.
However, never fight with someone who is fighting for his own life.
Chelsea AH -2 @ 1.975

Man City v Wigan
over in this part of the world, we call Man City the "village champions"; ie they can only win in their own den but wilt when they go out. If u cannot trust MC at home, then the world's richest club might well get relegated.
MC AH -0.5 @ 1.95

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Sat Jan 17, 2009 2:38 am

No one seems to think MC can win this one today, so i will pick them...

Opening balance = 1540

17.1.09
Man City AH -0.5 @ 2.05 v Wigan
Bet= 140
Returns= ???

Top ups= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1500

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(5w-2d-10l, 1690.5, 1430.5, [1800], -260) D WLLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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Postby Ipoh Shark » Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:16 am

Opening balance = 1540

17.1.09
Man City AH -0.5 @ 2.05 v Wigan :win:
Bet= 140
Returns= 287

Top ups= 100

Opening balance for coming week= 1787

Results
(win-draw-lose, staked, returns, [total top-ups incl following week], net) form
(6w-2d-10l, 1830.5, 1717.5, [1900], -113) WD WLLLW LWLLL LLDLW

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