bmirbkir OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

bmirbkir
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Postby bmirbkir » Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:03 pm

well Portugal had two 0-0s in a week and a weekend that proved pretty good for was tarnished by this result.

Anyway my pick this week is Chelsea to beat Middlesborough. i know Boro have a great home record and tend to do really well against the top clubs. I just think the Chelsea tam at the moment is full of quality and is high on confidence even with some injuries and injury worries. The boro team just won't have the experience to cope with it and with their star player Downing not having a great season. I can't see any other result.

So putting £300 of my £800 on Chelsea to win at 4/6 with partybets.

Other bets that i like this week are Liverpool and Wigan to draw, liverpool have been picking up good results and not playing well and will probably be missing Torres. Whilst Wigan have been performing really well and picking up useful results. 73/20 with centrebet.

And maybe Sunderland to win away at Fulham but they do have an extremely good record at the cottage.

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Postby bmirbkir » Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:13 am

A win and that takes my balance to 1100.

Well i just didn't fancy any of the games this week and was just going to put a small stake on a goalscorer, but after Tottenhams magical appointment i see them picking up there first win of the season with a home crowd behind them. they have won 2 and drawn there last 3 games against Bolton at home and Bolton don't have the best away record. Admittedly they did play well and pick up a good result against West Ham. Admittedly Spurs have a few injury and suspension problems but should have a big enough squad to deal with this and i can't see Gomes making another mistake today. I think they're going to win 2 or 3-1.

So £100 on tottenham at evens with Paddy Power

Remaining balance: £1000

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Postby bmirbkir » Fri Oct 31, 2008 11:25 pm

The Harry factor paid divident last week and having looked all round the fixtures this week and very difficult to find anything again.

Tottenham V Liverpool

This sees Robbie Keane return to his old club but a rejuvenated one and both teams must be high on confidence for different reasons, but i can just see this going either way, all though Liverpool(11/10) at bet365 not odds on for an unbeaten team looks worth a shout but not my bet for the weekend and especially at the lane.

Everton v Fulham

Don't like betting oin the early games and although Everton were very good second half versus United were not great in midweek and i just feel that although home advantage is a lot especially over a team with an awful away record like Fulham. The Andy Johnson factor and the early kick off may spring a suprise result, don't think Fulham will win though, and about 8/1 for Andy Johnson to score the first goal doesn't seem a bad shout now he's go to 100goals and strikers always seem to score against former clubs.

Boro v West Ham

West Ham are on a poor run but played some decent football last week against Arsenal and will be looking to get something after there two tough games in a week. Boro on the other side are inexperienced and unpredictable, very good at home usually but were stuffed by a rampant Chelsea that then flattered to deceive against Liverpool, can see goals in this and over 2.5 at 9/10 seems pretty good value as both teams seem to concede West Ham only 150/1 to go the whole season without keeping a clean sheet. But this will probably be a game that ends 0-0.

Stoke-Arsenal
Man Utd-Hull
Chelsea-Sunderland

expect the big teams to win these but i just fancy someone will sneak a draw maybe Hull or Stoke, but not sure about Sunderland at the bridge. Hull to draw with unitesdis 6/1 and Bolton almost did it, united don't seenm invincible as some expected this season although do seem to be getting better and strikers are starting to find the net.

also fancy Villa and Man city to pick up away wins both at about 11/8 but Man city can be brilliant and then disappoint and need to wait for more consistency. Villa to beat Newcastle seems good but with the return of Owen and Newcastle finally winning a gam i feel there may be a draw here.

After harry did well last week i'm going for Tony to do the business this week.
Pompey have been poor recently although were unlucky against Fulham last week and again in the week against top of the league. they've also won there last 4 games against Wigan and have a great home record, and with Defoe expected to be back up front with crouch, i can see them getting goals against a leaky Wigan defence. Wigan although have been playing pretty well must be low on confidence and have only scored in 1 of there last 4. they have also only one two away from home this seaso, one in the Carling cup against Ipswich where if i remember rightly they scored most there goals late on and the other a demolition against Hull/ Can see this being close but think Portsmouth will just edge it and Tony will get one over the guy he kept out the England side in there peaks.

With my top up i have £1300
So am going to put £300 on Pompey to beat Wigan at evens with Paddy Power.

Remaining balance £1000

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Postby bmirbkir » Sat Nov 08, 2008 11:01 am

Well i feel Pompey were unlucky last week but thats betting. So leaves me with 1100, i feel that Hull are a fantastic bet but as Arsenal fan i just can't turn them down at odds on at home. There are a few injuries and a few fans calling for Arsene Wenger to have his time. i thought wew were good in midweek without scoring and Man utd aren't going to play the same kind of game as Stoke and they haven't been in great form themselves.

I'm still going to edge on the side of caution and take them at 11/8 with draw as no bet, and put £200 on it.

Remaining balance £900

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Postby bmirbkir » Sat Nov 15, 2008 12:54 pm

I knew i should've been more confident las week but never mind still a good win, so current balance is £1425 with my top up.

First of all a couple of bets i don't like this week are Arsenal against Villa fancy an arsenal win but not confident enough to try and get value through handicap and same with United against Stoke, they could wallop Stoke but then Stoke i fancy to get a goal so anything could happen again, or you could have another Stoke Liverpool game.

This week i'm torn between three games to bet on first of all Chelsea to cover th -1.5 at near evens on the handicap, or over 3 or 4 goals at between 2 and 4/1 for each. Been stunning many goals away from home and scored 5 against Boro and Sunderland and fancy it again today if it wasn't for there exertions in midweek and at 25/1 maybe too short for such a score was looking more 30 +

The other is Spurs to beat fulham around 6/5. Fulham are hit and miss but have hit a bit of form with Johnson scoring and are really good at home. But we al know the effect Harry has had and feel this will probably continue today but i know they're going to slip up at some point so not sure.

West Ham V Portsmouth

My bet of the week is Portsmouth, neither team are in great form but Pompey picked up an important win last week although playing badly whilst the Hammers slipped up in the last 10 mins against Everton which is enough to shatter confidence when you've already lost 4out of 5.
West ham also don't have a point at Upton park in the Premiership to Portsmouth and with Crouch and Defoe always likey to get goals.

Portsmouth at 19/10 to pick up the 3 points with Centrebet looks too good to turn down.

So a stake of £225 on Pmpey to be West Ham @ 19/10 with Centrebet

Remaining Balance £1200

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Postby bmirbkir » Sat Nov 22, 2008 11:49 am

Portsmouth again unlucky last week! Well a balance of 1300 with my top up and this week i'm gonna go with my heart, maybe over brain.

Arsenal to beat Man city @ 11/8 with Paddy Power

I think both teams will try and play football, and i believe if this happens. It will play to Arsenals strength, and i think Gallas missing and Wenger showing who's boss will have a huge positive effect on morale and they will want to put last weeks disappointment behind them. Admittedly they're witout Toure and Fabregas as well. But the younger players that seem to come in don't seem to play with the same fear as the more experienced players, and with Ramsay likely to come in i don't feel we'll miss Fabregas that much similar player not as good. I think we'll miss Theo more as his pace is destructive especially against the weaker full backs. Altho Nasri likely to play on the right we shouldn't miss out and as long as Van Persie and Adebayor play up front or Vela i think we'll get goals and the way city line up with Robinho and Wright-Phillips wide against Sagna and Clichy I think we'll cope defensively. and probably get a 3-1 win.
On a stats side we've won the last three against them and 5 of the last 6.

Man City have won and lost three at home and Arsenals form has been erratic on the road but have picked up some good wins especially after defeats.

So £400 on Arsenal to beat Man city

11/8 with Paddy Power

remaining balance £900

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Postby bmirbkir » Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:47 pm

Well i have to say i was completely wrong and think i will be leaving Arsenal alone for a while, i just hope they can turn it round..

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Postby bmirbkir » Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:22 am

£1000 after top up and unfortunately a quick post as start work in a minute.

Man city to beat Man Utd
-Man Utd inconsistent away from home this season
-Man City high n confidence after 2 good results thisweek
-Hughes pretty good record against Utd
_Won both last season

£150 on City @ 10/3 with various bookmakers

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Postby gecko6 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:10 pm

you did yourself out of £50 after the arsenal DNB > they won 2-1 and you did 200 @ 11/8 which returns 475 not 425


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