BigMoose OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 Thread

bigmoose
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Postby bigmoose » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:12 pm

I'm back (long stroy). Out of full comp but want to see how i do over season. Will sort out top-ups later. No write-ups this week as on here too late, so just my BOTW:

Newc vs Pompey
This is more an instinct bet than one that reflects stats. I'm on the Home Win at 2.00. Yes, statistically these odds look short, Newc only won 4 at home all season, Pompey avoided defeat on the road in 3 recent away games to relegation fighting teams. But you have to watch Pompey like i do to go with this - under Hart Pompey completely lack ambition, there only onjective being to avoid defeat. Which is infuriating as a Pompey fan, most other teams down there would snatch off their right arm to have our squad instead of their own. Crouch plays up front all alone, with some sparkling moments of magic from Johnson being the only recent danger to opponents (Krankjar out). So only 2 poss results for me, the draw or Hom e win. Home win for me. Pompey have been poor in last few games, a fortunate win against a poor Bolton, and draws home to WBA and away to Hull. Owne to score against Pompey usually a good shout, esp as odds might be good.

BOTW

£300 on Newc Win @ 2.00 (various)
Steve

bigmoose
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Postby bigmoose » Sat May 02, 2009 1:23 pm

........ well that was worth coming back for. LOSS. Wonder if i'm still in profit, definitely no longer at +33% after that bet. Will sort out soon (altho not vital as no longer in proper competition due to my disappearance!)

1st May (Week ??)


Stoke v West Ham
Stoke home record 9-5-3. Excluding ManU & Che games then Stoke at home is 9-5-1. I think someone else stated in matchday thread that Stoke unbeaten at home in 7. Either way, yet again Stoke Home Win odds are far too high..... again! For this reason i can go quite big (for me) on my stake by taking the DNB option, i really can't see a West Ham win.... am sure i've used this phrase in this thread earlier in the seaason and been completely wrong mind!!!famous last words (gulp!)

BOTW - £500 on Stoke AH+0 @ 1.74 (Ladbrokes)
Steve

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Postby gecko6 » Sat May 02, 2009 1:27 pm

good luck mate.. i fancy stoke today too and picked this match on this thread too

odds look decent considering

:win:

bigmoose
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Postby bigmoose » Sat May 09, 2009 2:20 pm

Week 39

This time of season gets almost as hard as teh first 3-4 weeks of the season. there's no such thing as a gritish footy team not trying (we must be the only country taht takes international friendlies seriously!), but by the same regard i've not got a clue which Stoke, Wigan, Villa, Bolton or Eve (to name af ew) will turn up today. My last weeks crash & burn bet showed this, did Stoke lose that extra 5% to their game because they're safe, or just a bad day at the office?

Ful vs Villa
A bit late to point this out (259pm Sat) but Fulham win) DNB @ 2.03 is cracking odds at home to Villa. The Ful win has to be more likely than the Villaa win, no way should this bet be even close to Evens. I just got on it in time too.

WHam vs Liv - 5.30pm Sat
To me this is one of those bets where the end of season odds and Liv needing the win most have made Liv too short. All the value with WHam for me. Upton Park a very difficult place to go, and West Ham do ok against the Big4 at home. This season both Che & ManU had slightly fortunate 1-0 wins & Liv lost this corresponding fixture last season, altho won their 2 previous visits to WHam by 2-1 scoreline. I can def see a narrow Liv win, but I really quite fancy West Ham to get something. I might do a small sneaky "Liv by 1 goal' bet myself, but my logical head and BOTW is West Ham +1 AH @ 2.08 . It's been 20 Prem League games since WHAm lost a match by more than 1 goal & Liv one goal win = money back. And when did you last see WHam take a pasting! Smaller confidence bet though.

BOTW - £200 on WHam AH+1 @ 2.08 (bet365)
Steve

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