eezzee OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

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eezzee OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

Postby eezzee » Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:35 am

WK 1 >>> Balance £100

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Postby eezzee » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:23 pm

Week 1 >>> Review

The opening couple of weekends are as usual going to be tough to find value winners from until we can assess some sort of form. The top fours odds are all too short for me to consider backing and at this stage of the season I wouldn’t want to risk much on the AH.

One opening game which may spring a surprise could be the Bolton v Stoke game. Derby managed an opening day draw last season and new boys Stoke could also pull off the same feat and at odds of 3.5 for the draw it could be worth a small punt. Not that I think Stoke stand a chance of surviving in the Prem, but have Bolton really got the talent and depth to finish out of the drop zone either?

For me in terms of value, Spurs appear to be the stand out bet and 11/8 is a cracking price for them to deliver on Saturday.

Spurs are unbeaten in pre-season and with the future of the sulky Berbatov still undecided along with the surprise departure of Keane; Darren Bent seems to have found some important confidence and is now on fire and repaying the millions paid for him. Modric and Bentley also seem to be settling in well and earning their price tags, and Gomes looks a huge safe pair of hands in goal. After a disastrous start last season, Spurs will be looking to bang in a few goals in the coming weeks and get themselves amongst the pace setters.

Boro on the other hand haven’t made any notable changes and even with the threat of Downing, I don’t think they have enough defensive wise to hold out against a rampant Spurs side. Plus the last time Boro won a league game against Spurs was back in May 2005.

I should add that I’m a proud Spurs fan and although I don’t make a habit of betting on my own side, I feel this is our year (ok so was last year meant to be and the year before that and..... :lol:

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Postby eezzee » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:28 pm

Week 1>>>Bet >>>Bank £100

Selection : Spurs Win
Odds : 11/8
Bookie : Sky Bet
Stake : £100

New Balance : £0

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Postby eezzee » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:09 am

Well what can I say, already £100 down after week 1, still at least things can only get better. :hope:

I must also add that I do actually bet on my selections in this thread, although not with the same amount of money. In the real world though I would point out the value in trading as I traded out at half time for a small profit, but the ultimate aim of this thread is 'beat the bookies', which I lost. :lose:

Bank : £0

Week 2 Credit +£100

New Bank : £100 (Profit -£100)

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Postby eezzee » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:42 pm

Week 2 >>> Review

Still looking for some decent value this week, but it's only week 2 so early days, plus I want to bring my profit back into the black before I decide to take on the more riskier bets. :(

Pompey v Man-U Draw @ 3.6 MU have a great squad but you do have to admit that without Ronaldo they lack a certain spark, even when Tevez and Rooney are playing together so they sooner Berbatov goes the better! Only managing a draw against Newcastle would of really pained Fergie especially as Chelsea thrashed Pompey, and huge pressure will be on MU to win by at least a 1 goal margin, but Portsmouth surely can't play as bad as they did last Saturday and at home they're a different proposition. Don't get me wrong as I'm not writing MU off, I just don't think they'll get the better of Chelsea this season, and Pompey certainly have it in them to earn a draw at Fratton Park.

Darren Bent FGS @ 6 Spurs will be more attacking at home and surely Bent can score given the way he played pre-season. Also Bentley has been impressive since his arrival at WHL and also may be worth an each/way bet FGS @ 9. Should be a win here for Spurs who I'm sure will make the home advantage count.

Wigan V Chelsea 1x2 Chelsea @ 1.45 This surely has to be the best straight bet of the weekend, given the way Chelsea played against Pompey. I was really impressed with the way Lampard and Deco fitted into the team together and the whole side just seemed to be so slick, and thats without the injured Drogba. The odds on this are too short for real consideration, but still a banker IMO.

Stoke v Villa - Villa AH -0.5,-1 @ 2.00 bet365 I feel Villa are going to be really strong this season and there opening day win showed how good they can be. Whereas Stoke are predicted to come bottom of the table and I've just heard that Paddy Power have alreay paid out on them getting relegated come the end of the season. I don't think they will be as bad as Derby last term but they don't have a good enough squad to challenge in the premiership. It's their first home game so may be a bit tighter as I'm sure they'll want to give their supporters a good show, but I still think Villa are much too good a side not to come away with at least a 2 goal victory.

In the other games I would go for an Arsenal away win and home wins for Blackburn, Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle. The WBA v Everton game might also be interesting, given the way WBA played at the Emirates. They may do a bit better than everyone thinks this season and they should play well at home and may prove difficult for Everton to breakdow, so a draw seems likely although either team may nick it.

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Postby eezzee » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:44 pm

Week 2>>>Bet >>>Bank £100

Selection : Aston Villa AH -0.5,-1
Odds : Evens
Bookie : bet365
Stake : £100

New Balance : £0
Last edited by eezzee on Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby eezzee » Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:25 am

:oops: Cheers, that's what I meant, was working on decimal odds. Really shouldn't do these write ups when I'm half asleep

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Postby eezzee » Sat Aug 23, 2008 7:22 pm

Who said the premier league was predictable :?

I watched the Spurs game with high hopes of things to come, but for the large part they didn't threaten at all, the quicker they can bring in an attacker the better. Even more of a shock my OLBG v The Bookies tip of a Villa win was lost to a written off Stoke. Then to top the day off, big favs Arsenal go and lose to Fulham! Still, in the real world I had a good double come in today from the lower leagues, that's the place to be!

After two weeks I'm now £200 down :( but I will carry on regardless and hope results start going our way.

Bank : £0

Week 3 Credit +£100

New Bank : £100 (Profit -£200)

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Postby eezzee » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:25 pm

Week 3 >>> Review

After no result from my first two weeks selections, things must surely start settling down soon. My main picks this week are in the more risky bracket, but nonetheless they are being given my consideration after the dire results already. If I lose this week then I’m going to have to back some poor value favourites for a couple of weeks to claw back any loss.

Everton v Portsmouth – Draw @ 3.4 Boylesports
This is one fixture that I keep being drawn to, although I should probably steer clear of, but the odds are to my liking. Given Everton’s pretty decent home record and recent history against Pompey you’d have to say that the odds are in their favour, which realistically they are. However this term Everton have looked a little shaky and as Moyes has noted, they are lacking depth in their squad partly due the reluctance to spend big although they are bringing players as I write. They were fortunate to come away from West Brom with a win as I didn’t feel they deserved it and it’s apparent to see why Moyes is so desperate to add to his squad as his lack of options at The Hawthorns meant a place in midfield for 17-year-old Jack Rodwell and a full debut given to Jose Baxter at just 16-years-old. IMO Moyes has done a great job, yet you can only keep on achieving at a certain level if you invest in quality players. Whilst Everton will want a home win for the fans, they certainly won’t want another home loss like opening day. Given their lack of options it will probably be a more defensive display than all out attack. Portsmouth are also in a similar position to Everton in terms of not wanting to lose playing away again after the thrashing dealt by Chelsea, but will be desperate for at least a point to avoid being the ones propping up the bottom of the table. They played more aggressively against MU and showed they can actually defend better, but there is still a question mark hanging over the pairing of Defoe and Crouch which has yet to be fully tested, although it may be just the lone striker that starts this away game. So it think it will be a close game and although it could go either way IMO, I think it has all the hallmarks of a draw, so an under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 bet may also be worth a shout.

Aston Villa v Liverpool – Villa +0 AH @ 2.2 Boylesports This game should be an interesting one after having just watched Liverpool struggle their way to a win in their CLQ. Although tinker man Rafa has got his team winning games it isn’t at all convincing at present and it won’t be helped by the fact that Gerrard has been ruled out with a minor op needed on his groin injury. Their multi-million pound strike force hasn’t been showing its true potential yet, although it will come if they are allowed enough match time to play together in their preferred positions. Villa would have been disappointed to lose away to Stoke who you’d have to admit worked hard to deserve their victory. Villa has a promising squad this season and will be expecting to compete at the upper end of the table so this is the sort of match they should be taking points from. Again I can see this being a low scoring game and taking lower priced Asian Handicap on Villa takes limits the risk.

Chelsea v Tottenham – Lampard AGS @ 3.0 PartyBets Deco has had a great start to his first season in the prem at Chelsea with 2 goals from 2 games and Lampard will not want to fall behind him in the goals scoring stakes. He scored in the opening day rout of Portsmouth and given his efforts in the Chelsea midfield I can easily see him scoring against a somewhat unsettled and shaky Spurs side.

The Rest - Quick Predictions
Arse v Newcastle – Home Win
Bolton v West Brom – Home Win
Hull City v Wigan – Away Win
Middlesbrough v Stoke – Home Win
West Ham v Blackburn Away Win
Sunderland v Man City – Home Win
Chelsea v Spurs – Home Win

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Postby eezzee » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:27 pm

Week 3>>>Bet >>>Bank £100

Selection : Everton v Pompey - Draw
Odds : 3.4
Bookie : Boylesports
Stake : £100

New Balance : £0

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Postby eezzee » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:39 pm

Right after a nightmare start to this I've decided from now on to stick to smaller stakes so I can build up the bank for when everything settles down. This is especially important this week with internationals which I don't normally touch, but for the sake of this comp I will have a very very small punt on something.

Bank : £0

Week 4 Credit : +£100

New Bank : £100 (Profit -£300)

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Postby eezzee » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:46 pm

Week 4 >>> Review

As I've already mention I don't like internationals at all so not much to write up this week. In brief my selection this week is going to be for a Bulgarian win, and I've gone for the AH which was offering better odds than the straight win. I was a bit suprised by this but Bulgaria actually sit at joint 16th in the Fifa world rankings which is just below England who are 14th, whilst Montenegro are way down at 136. Now this doesn't mean much but just shows you how far apart they are. Montengro have the home advantage but they don't have any real star quality players in their squad. The key for Bulgaria is that 'Incredible Sulk' has now completed his dream move to Man-U and I reckon this will give him a big lift which in turn will help the team. Also in the squad is Petrov from Man-City who is also a decent player. Last time out, Bulgaria travelled to Bosnia and came back with a 2-1 win; might even be a couple more goals in this game as Montengro last played Hungary away and drew 3-3. So over 2.5 goals may be worth while.

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