Jaydubs OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thead

jaydubs
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Postby jaydubs » Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:45 pm

Wahoo at last ...A nice win, although I must confess thinking that the bookies had overpriced Hull away to Spurs at the start of the season would have had me laughed at from all angles.

Anyway 120 at 4/1 =600pts return

closing week balance 700pts

Nearly back to even

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Postby jaydubs » Thu Oct 09, 2008 6:16 pm

Have been pouring through the international stats for a few hours now and just can't find a great deal that looks really that good.

Kazakhstan don't score very many goals away from home but 1-3 is no price to be taking especially when the team concerned is England ..San Marino anyone..

Romania have a very good home record in fact in the last 10 matches they have only lost once and drawn once and only conceded twice one of which was a 6-1 win over Albania. The problem is the other was a 3-0 loss to Lithuania in the last game. The draw incidentally was a 0-0 with France. The Romanians should have 5 or 6 players back after injury including Mutu for this match.
Now to the bets for this

Under 1.5 goals at 7-4 looks quite nice as does the 23/10 on France to score 0 goals
A repeat of the 0-0 draw is 13-2 and a Romania win by a single goal is 7-2. This looks the most likely match to have a go on for me (after an injuries update) but there is also one more worth a peek.

Turkey v Bosnia
In the last 10 home matches Turkey have only won by more than 1 goal once (3-0 v Hungary) , 4 were won by a goal 3 were drawn and 2 lost by a goal.
Bosnia's last 10 aways have resulted in 7 losses 2 wins and a draw if we take away the 3 friendly matches (losses to Japan 3-0, Iran 5-2 and Korea 2-0) and concentrate on qualifying matches they have only lost by a goal to Turkey, Spain, Greece and Hungary. If you put these two stats together a handicap draw with Turkey +1 is great odds at 12-5.

Now just to try and make my choice.. Lets hope it is the right one !!

All figures quoted are with Paddy Power

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Postby jaydubs » Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:50 pm

Right I am going to get the ball rolling with Romania v France under 1.5 goals at 7/4 with Paddy Power.

Opening balance 800

160 pts at 7/4 Romania v France undr 1.5 goals

possible win 440

closing balance 640pts

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Postby jaydubs » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:13 am

WWWWHHHHHYYYYYY do I go for the wrong one every week !!!!

I had a treble of Georgia v Cyprus to draw.. a 1 goal hcp draw between Turkey and Bosnia and then blew it with my selection of 1 goal or less in the Romania match...doh how wrong could I be !!

anyway 640 + a new weeks 100

=740 for the forthcoming matches.
No real point looking at them until the matches on Wednesday are done and we find out who is injured etc.

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Postby jaydubs » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:52 pm

Sorry guys going to have to be quick and may not be back on before tomorrows Ko's

So short and sweet

I am tempted by M'boro to get a result with Chelsea's walking wounded returning from international duty and no fewer than 6 1st team regulars out in jured and another 5 or 6 rated doubtful so although 11/2 on the win looks optimistic 13/5 for the draw could be very good.
Fancied Arsenal to scroe a few tomorrow but can't make my mind up on what H'cp 2 play
Stoke look good at home v Spurs but the nagging feeling is Spurs must get a result soon
The other matches make limited appeal apart from Villa to beat Pompey
5/6 looks quite generous. True Villa may be without Agbonlahor but Pompey are without both Krancjar and Diarra as well as possibly another 5 or 6 still on the treatment table.

All done and dusted I have to go with Villa who should be far too strong for Pompey

bet 240 Villa win at 5/6 (Ladbrokes)
possible winnings 440

balance brought forward 740 - 240 = 500

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Postby jaydubs » Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:59 pm

No win last week so 500 becomes 600


Have to say I will never doubt Chelsea again after last week. I thought everything was in M'boro's favour last week to turn them over but boy was I wrong.

Anyway
Time is tight for this one (kicking off in 10 mins)
I am struggling to decide this week I do really fancy WBA to beat Hull, Hulls only big defeat came at the hands of Wigan whereas they have got results against Arsenal,Newcastle and Spurs is this a case of a team uping their game against the bigger boys. 6/5 seems quite nice but WBA only win by a goal at home and Hull win by a goal away so as much as my heart tells me WBA will win I am going to stay away from this.

My bet comes this week in the Spurs Bolton match I can't help thinking against a team that are not good away from home Spurs should win but take in to account Spurs have Dawson and Bale suspended and Injuries to Corluka and poss another couple of defenders their last line of defence seems to be a bit thin on the ground and I can see Bolton squeezing a win and at 3/1 with Ladbrokes the price is too high.

300 Bolton to win at 3/1 Ladbrokes

Balance remaining 300 poss winnings 1200

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Postby gecko6 » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:42 pm

hi mate

you missed £20 on last page... after chelsea bet of 80, balance was 70..add the top up and its 170 not 150

so you need to add £20 back in

:win:

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Postby jaydubs » Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:33 pm

Right there is nowt like changing your manager after I have made my selection is there .... Thanks Spurs and Pompey... Spurs blew my money on here and Pompey drawing blew my line on Ladbrokes...

Sorry no time today

Not a great deal of value anywhere and a lot of the matches look straight forward so as a way of increasing the odds I am going to take Everton who have been very poor at home against Fulham who are poor away I think 7/2 on a draw at HT and an Everton win at full time is good enough for a small stake

60 on HT draw FT Everton win at 7/2 Skybet


300 becomes 400 plus the 20 I missed on the last page ..Thanks Gecko =420

420-60 = remaining balance 360

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Postby jaydubs » Sat Nov 01, 2008 8:10 pm

Wow should have put a bigger stake on .. Was actually thinking of the 1-0 but at 6's it seemed better to go for the 7/2 HT FT. Wow all those easy to predict matches didn't turn out quite right did they.... Well done to all of those who predicted Wigan Stoke or Spurs.

Anyway 60 at 7/2 returns 270
Added to my total of 360 makes 630 plus the new 100

Equals 730 to start next week

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Postby jaydubs » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:39 pm

730 to start with.

No time today just off out for the weekend so

A couple of fancies for home wins at decentish prices but can't resist Hull at home to Bolton the records speak for them selves but untill the bubble bursts I am going to stick with them and the good odds they provide

Hull to win at 6/5 Ladbrokes 200 to win 440

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Postby jaydubs » Sat Nov 15, 2008 2:34 pm

Another loser so 530 to 630 ..

Just got time to belive that the Kinnear revival will continue with neither Heskey or Kirkland 100% fit if they do play for a very poor away side in Wigan

So

330 Newcastle at evens to win with Ladbrokes

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Postby jaydubs » Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:23 pm

Oh ..just loser after loser for me on this 300 now to 400

Stoke win @ 6/5 SkyBet v WBA

Both of these sides know that it is home form that will that will give them a chance to stay up and with a record of 4 wins from 6 losing only to Everton and Chelsea Stoke look good value especially when you consider WBA have only found the net twice in their away games this season.

And this comment from Portvalenil
Just to comment that Stoke have lost only ONE of the last 23 games against WBA.

Stoke to win at 6/5 sky bet 300pts

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