tipstonga OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

gecko6
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Postby gecko6 » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:50 pm

nice one tips...good stuff

:win:

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Postby tipstonga » Fri Apr 03, 2009 10:20 pm

After this international interval prediction turns somehow problematic due to the different grades of stress that great players had past through so I shall remain under evens and in something safe.
I think one of those cases is Arsenal that faces home a team with only 1 victory in 15 matches away and 25 goals conceded. Arsenal without losing their nice playing have returned recently to scoring (2 x 3-1, 4-0) .

Further decision was between direct or AH since I think both has value. As I have -in principle- limited myself to 500 stake and I am 1500 below with 8 rounds to play, the win in the direct win with the maximum will just cover the average amount needed to became positive. So I decided to take the risk of the push taking this not very difficult to cover handicap assuming this will give me safety in more difficult calls in the weeks to come.

Then my btow for week 33

Event: Arsenal v Manchester City
Market: AH
Bet: home-1 win
Odds: 0.87
Bookie: Canbet
Stake: 500 geckoins

new bank = 1383 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:11 pm

Simple, nice :D

Balance
bank = 1383
stake = 500
profit = 500 x 0.87 = 435
top up = 100

New bank for week 34 = 2418 geckoins

Stats
14W 17L 2D , -1.16 LSP , profit -982 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Fri Apr 10, 2009 6:05 am

This round I find interesting Arsenal to beat Wigan, Villa to beat Everton but over them I prefer MUnited to beat Sunderland.

Despite the problems shown by MU against Villa and Porto, different in each case, I think that Sunderland can not present great opposition to MU. Sunderland can not rely safely on a short defeat as Boro, Newcastle and even WBA may win their matches. Though MU will be focused in the next Ch.League match they have Liverpool too close (-1 point, +1 match) and with an easy home match ready to take them the first place in the table. Reds have enough power to put in the field and score 2 or more. Their defence improved from Villa to Porto and may improve a step further and at the same time Sunderland will not urge it too much.

I am decided to beat the bookies even by a marginal win so 200 geckoins profit per round in each of the 7 rounds ahead would be enough.Also I do not want to put a high stake at risk as it may turn non recoverable.
I find then suitable for this modest plan a bet of 300 within @0.7 and evens.


According to these thoughts I select my botw for week 34:

Event: Sunderland v Manchester United
Market: AH
Bet: away-1 win
Odds: 0.91
Bookie: Canbet
Stake: 300 geckoins

new bank = 2118 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Apr 11, 2009 4:02 pm

the referee did not see a hand of Sunderland in their area so this bet is a push :x

new bank for week 35 = 2518 geckoins

Stats
14W 17L 3D , -1.16 LSP , profit -982 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby gecko6 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:37 am

good stuff TT

6 wks to go and going well recently :D

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Postby tipstonga » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:57 am

thank you gecko, hope it lasts.

I have made my mind on my bet and will like to play it soon as the price is going down probably due to weaknesses shown by Liverpool in CH.League and their exit with such many goals conceded.

The match I choose will most probably be a draw though I would largely prefer an away win. Both teams are at the top of the 6 form table, with 5 consecutive wins each taking origin in a draw for the first and a lost game for the second .
As you would have guessed the match is Liverpool (the 2nd) versus Arsenal (the first).
H2H they have made a bunch of 1-1 results in Premiership lately.
I am very confident of Arsenal nice football to prevail but as Gunners will be playing Chelsea for FA Cup -3 days before-, a draw looks very possible.

In the round I put an eye also on MU to beat Portsmouth home but price was not tempting and handicap call too large for a match with not null chances of a draw.

So botw for week 35


Event: Liverpool v Arsenal, April 21st
Market: AH
Bet: away+0.5 win
Odds: 0.85
Bookie: Betdaq
Stake: 400 geckoins

new bank = 2118 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:39 pm

A draw that is a win !!! :D
and it was close to be a win: glory to Arshavin and shame for Reina. :D

old balance = 2118
stake = 400
profit = 0.85 x 400 = 340
top up = 100

new balance for week 36 = 2958 geckoins

Stats
15W 17L 3D , -0.31 LSP , profit -642 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:52 am

I have little doubts for round 36 . At this time Manchester United facing Tottenham home is quite confident and has still a good price.
As I need to shorten 642 negative I have to take some risk for the excelent 0.87 odds maintaining the rule of maximum stake 500.

So btow round 36


Event: Manchester United v Tottenham, April 25th
Market: AH
Bet: home-1 win
Odds: 0.87
Bookie: Ladbrokes
Stake: 500 geckoins

new bank = 2458 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Apr 25, 2009 7:27 pm

:D win
by the end of first half I was writing my resignation to this challenge :oops: but MU attack compensated all tribulations, I now think I shall beat the Bookies as so many here.
:)

then
bank = 2458
stake = 500
profit 0.87 x 500 = 435
top up = 100

bank for week 37 = 3493 geckoins

Stats
16W 17L 3D , +0.56 LSP , profit -207 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:03 pm

there are many confident games from the 6 first in the table.
From them I discard first sight those teams involved in Ch.League.
From the rest Liverpool and Villa are playing home so out with Everton. But Villa has been playing worst at home and their opponent best away and at the same time the former has little in risk.
Then I am in the side of Liverpool whose win against very poor Newcastle can be considered a fact.
Here enters the real question should I go with the maximum stake in direct win (@0.3) and still remain negative with win or risk and expect Liverpool to win by 2 or more. I take this one since Liverpool will effort looking for MU to be "distracted" with Ch.League and it is not too risky considering over 2 goals made average and below 1 goals conceded average. Null scoring capacity of Newcastle was clearly shown last match home although it was decisive for their Premiership survival.

So bofw for week 37
Event: Liverpool v Newcastle - May 3rd
Market: AH
Bet: home-1.5 win
Odds: 0.8
Bookie: bet365
Stake: 500 geckoins

new bank = 2993 geckoins

Cross fingers to turn positive at last this week :hope:

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sun May 03, 2009 7:24 pm

win win win :D I have a positive overall profit !!!
Liverpool 3-0

Balance
bank = 2993
stake = 500
profit = 500 x 0.8 = 400
top up = 100

bank for week 38 = 3993 geckoins

Stats
17W 17L 3D , +1.36 LSP , profit +193 geckoins

I am beating the Bookies. They do not look too hurt but ...
:D

good luck :win:
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