tipstonga OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

tipstonga
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Postby tipstonga » Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:37 pm

win !!!! :D
with a goal at minute 20 West Ham wan 1st. half .

bank = 160
stake = 100
profit 100 x 3.3 = 330
top up = 100

bank for week 16th = 690 geckoins

statistics 5W 9L 1D , -2.29 LSP , -910 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby gecko6 » Sun Nov 23, 2008 10:42 pm

:D

excellent stuff

well done TT

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Postby tipstonga » Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:48 pm

thank you gecko

After considering thoroughly the Saturday games http://www.olbg.com/blogs/blog_post.php ... a&id=52540 and feel the Sunday and Monday too tricky and useless compared with them I think on Saturday 2 matches -with probable away wins- dispute the betting interest
Stoke vs Hull: goals over 2.5 @ 1 and
Sunderland vs Bolton with value in all away win variations
Bolton 1x2 @ 2.4 to feel the adrenaline or the safer
Bolton+0 @1.4 and
Bolton +0.5 @ 0.65

I shall take the value bet and maintain a cautious staking since I see very confident Bolton triumph, so .

Event: Sunderland v Bolton
Market: 1 x 2
Bet: away win
Odds: 2.4
Bookie: Canbet
stake: 200 geckoins

new bank : 490 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:13 pm

win again !!! :D, my best guess this saturday

bank = 490
stake = 200
profit 200 x 2.4 = 480
top up = 100

bank for week 17th = 1270 geckoins

statistics 6W 9L 1D , +0.11 LSP , profit -430 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:24 am

I am not to sure I shall have time to write down my thoughts about this round and set my bet . So I am doing it short and quickly now I have a few minutes.
I have some taste for Bolton spoiling Chelsea perfect away record but it seems to be the dream of many as odds were too low.
Then I move to a very confident one that still has some interest in prize probably because of Blackburn scoring 3 in last defeat so seeding the doubt about MU back line. My view is that Blackburn have to be pointed for that goal achieving and that Sunderland lacks of such potential. Figures help showing that : Sunderland away scored only 6 goals and conceded 11 (half Blackburn) while MU home averages 3 goals per match and just half conceded. Confidence made me increase my stake -I think wisely- to just below the last amount won.
Finally my btow will be:

Event: Manchester United v Sunderland
Market: AH
Bet: home -2 win
Odds: 0.95
Bookie: Canbet
stake: 470 geckoins

new bank : 800 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Dec 06, 2008 3:10 am

Finally I found some time to write my general blog on Premiership

http://www.olbg.com/blogs/blog_post.php ... a&id=53616

you may find there some other interesting bets, taste dependant alternatives to this one, and a critics of my Bolton comment here.

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Dec 06, 2008 7:48 pm

It seems I wanted to go to far and MUnited did not :(

week 18 bank 900 geckoins

statistics 6W 10L 1D , -0.89 LSP , profit -900 geckoins


good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Wed Dec 10, 2008 3:29 am

Comparing 1x2 and AH odds, and looking for something above evens I finally picked Blackburn to beat Wigan. I know that general figures -11th v 19th in the table to say something- are on the home side with the exception of the historical record. Anyhow Blackburn individualities are not such to deserve to be there. Analysing recent matches you can see that even being beaten by MUnited (in Tevez birthday apparently) Blackburn has scored 3 and also had made 2 goals per match in last five Prem. away except nil against Spurs. At the same time Wigan home has converted one third of those goals (3); 2 of them to West Brom and the other to an unrecognisable Everton.
I see then great chances for a Blackburn recovery in this match. I shall not risk my shirt anyhow and shall cover for the draw.

____BTOW week 18_____
Event: Wigan v Blackburn
Market: AH
Bet: away+0
Odds: 1.63
Bookie: Stan James
stake: 300 geckoins

new bank : 600 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Wed Dec 17, 2008 6:55 pm

Bet lost :(

bank for week 19 = 700 geckoins

statistics 6W 11L 1D , -1.89 LSP , profit -1200 geckoins


good luck :win:
Last edited by tipstonga on Wed Dec 17, 2008 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby tipstonga » Wed Dec 17, 2008 7:36 pm

Week 19 the decision

I have made some, hope not too early, analysis elsewhere http://www.olbg.com/blogs/blog_post.php ... a&id=54728
I found interesting
a) 2 very probable draws Blackburn v Stoke and Bolton v Pompey,
and
b) 2 very probable wins Fulham v Boro (minimal difference) and Everton v Chelsea

The latter attract me overall for its odds. May be my retina is saturated with Everton disastrous work against Wigan but I can not see the home team even getting the draw. Last 2 h2h were at Everton's and both ended 0-1 . Chelsea had all wins away (8) and even so it is being paid 0.75. As I am down in profit and a little anxious to be better soon I will risk for the 0.75 handicap at evens. Not too much risk considering goals made(36) and conceded(8, only 1 away) in 18 matches by Chelsea. So

BTOW week 19

Event: Everton v Chelsea
Market: AH
Bet: away-0.75
Odds: 1.0
Bookie: Canbet
stake: 500 geckoins

new bank : 200 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:39 am

bet lost :shock:
statistics 6W 12L 1D , -2.89 LSP , profit -1700 geckoins

bank for week 20 = 200 + 100 = 300 geckoins

Although trying to make responsible bets along the year (without a certain good result anyway) I would like to end the year with a risky bet. It is not a very confident one but it does not lack of foundation. Essentially I saw MUnited unclear and tired so I assume not impossible a draw at Old Trafford. Moreover when things went wrong they can be worst ( for MU not for me :) ) so I take the double chance in favour of Boro just in case.

My pick but by no way btow:

Event: MUnited v Boro
Market: double chance
Bet: draw or away
Odds: 3.5
Bookie: Paddy Power
stake: 300 geckoins

new bank : 0 geckoins

One way or the other a fresh beginning in 2009.
Happy new year with lots of bet wins for everyone vs The Bookies.

good luck :win: :)
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Postby tipstonga » Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:21 pm

bet lost :shock:
statistics 6W 13L 1D , -3.89 LSP , profit -2000 geckoins

first half Bookies 1 Tipstonga 0 :?

2008 bank = 0 geckoins

Happy new year
Hope peace reigns during Peace Day all over the world

good luck :win:
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