gecko6 OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread...

gecko6
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Postby gecko6 » Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:43 pm

top up £100

bank > £2911.88

fancy man city to beat wigan - cityhave been good at disposing of non top 4 teams at home..ropey away though.. wigan have been in v good form but see signs of that ending soon... city should take advantage of this today unless "kakagate" gets to them

fancy blackburn too - they shoul see off newcastle

few doubts today about these so.. plumping for

ARSENAL

expect them to make most of hull's poor home form...hull won well at newcastle in the cup, but have struggled recenbtly in the prem.. shipping too many goals.. arsenal are goo don the break and away they can often rattle in a few goals.. I can see them doing so today although their form ahsnt been great recently - they cannotafford to drop too many more pts when not expected

tempted enough although the odds arent great

bet > arsenal
odds > 4/6 (Paddy Power)
stake > £250


* reasonably small stake after last wk raising the level a bit.. fairly confident but want to stay in profit..

bank now > £2661.88

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:25 pm

3-1 gooners win

so that returns £416.67

bank now > £3078.55

23 weeks so £2300 added by top-ups...

profit thus £778.55

:win:

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Postby gecko6 » Wed Jan 28, 2009 10:03 pm

:x

was gonna pick hammers but completely forgot this...grrrrr

always annoying when it comes in.. my fault...

will catch up when i can

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 2:15 pm

ok..this week...

BOLTON v SPURS

spurs dont win away too often - glatter to deceive... they have had better results v top 4 but often come a cropper against teams simialrly ranked...this is a good example - they usually struggle v bolton away and havent won here for 13 yrs or so...
bolton had a bad run of 5 defeats but got a creditable draw at b/burn midweek..spurs went 3 up quickly v stoke but idnt push on and ended 3-1

bolton are more than capable of getting amongstspurs and causing trouble..theymay niss nolan but spur swill miss defoe more... spurs have been poor for a while an dmay get a draw at best today

bolton on the +0 AH are 2.08 and that is worth it for me as the draw returns stake..cant see spurs winning and evens on bolotn looks ok with the draw bet refund

bet > bolton
odds > 2.08 (bet365)
stake > £250

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 5:03 pm

wk 24 > top up £100
bank £3178.55

missed bet

wk 25 > top up £100
bank £3278.55

bolton > won 3-2 so that returns £520, profit being £270

bank now > £3548.55

topup total > £2500

profit > £1048.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:32 am

wk 26
top-up £100

bank > £3648.55

SUNDERLAND v STOKE

sunderland have only lost once in last 7 games (in 90mins) and will view this as a good chance to get a vital 3pts - the season is moving on and the "easier" games are few and far between

stoke are very tough at home but dont have the same purpose or results on their travels

sundo have beaten fulham wba and bolton recently at home, drawn with b/burn twice 9cup too) and lost just to villa

they shoul dbe good enough to win here...cisse and jones have managed 9 and 6 goals respectively and can see one of them scoring today

stoke have lost last 4 away lge games and also lost 2-0 in cup at hartlepool - they should have done better at west ham and played v well at chelsea but justa rent getting results - they were poor last time v spurs.. they win at hoem a fair bit but this game will be tough for them I think

cant see many goals, a 1-0 home win probably but sunderland look reasonable value at 5/6 for me

arsenal look value at 6.4 but always a risk with NL derby so avoiding that bet - other games are either poor odds or I expect surprises perhaps so no clear cuts

chelsea -4 corners @ 13/10 isnt a bad bet - can see them winning that battle clearly and odds are tempting


this is best option for me

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:52 am

will gof or the better odds in chelsea corner bet as they should pepper hull and force quite afew clearances/saves... can see adozen home corners and hull unlikely to get more than 3 or 4 probably

sunder;and are a good bet odds fraction skinny and stoke could be really battling... cant be too confident about that one although still pursuing the bet, just not the bestbet

wk 26 bet > Chelsea -4 corners AH
odds > 2.3
stake > £250

bank > £3418.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:53 am

corner count was chelsea 13-3 hull so that was a winner

* many thanks to SweetFos for the angle!

return was £575

bank now > £3993.55

profit now > £1393.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:30 pm

top-up £100

bank now > £4093.55

tricky old cup ties and couple of prem games this wk... no value inutd next wed and pompey city is to hard to call..

so ..the cup!

cant see much value here either...form out of the window usually..down to who want sit more often...

everton villa looks under 2.5 to me but 4/6 isnt huge value... altho it looks a goo dbet based on everton being v tight and especially so against top sides..vila likewise have had string of unders away...concentrating more on not conceding and hitting on the break and its worked superbly...

thus...can see atight tough well matched game between 2 form sides... 1-1 tops for me...

other interest is boro at hammers... can see boro getting something as west ham will stutter at some point after recent good run... and boro have to improve after poor run... boro were bit unlucky at city last wk as alves should have popped at least one goal away...

boro +0 AH are almost 3/1 which looks reasonable to me... west ham could easily win but i think there is a chance that boro may relax being the cup and get something.. i still dont really rate hammers despite their recent much improved form

choice is > sensible more obvious bet of unders v unlikely but attractive odds on boro

everton unders to me is about a 70% chance.. I expect it 7 times in 10 without doubt... 4/6 is 60% chance so this is fairly attractive

boro I would think would win that game perhaps 2 in 10, and maybe draw 3 times... so the win bet should be 4/1 (9/2 best currently) and the draw should be about 5/2 (13/5 best) and hammers win about evens (4/5)
> probably isnt quite so much value in this bet altho it appeals...

should really go for the boro win at 9/2 but the AH of 57/20 does have the draw no bet element which helps...

I think I'll do that bet anyway but for the OLBG bet I will pick the unders

bet > everton v villa under 2.5 goals
stake > £200
odds > 4/6 (bluesquare)

bank > £3893.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sun Feb 22, 2009 2:58 pm

oops
missed most of the games

last wk I chose the wrong option.. boro drew 1-1 but everton villa was 3-1 so wasnt under 2.5

topup > £100
bank > £3993.55

everton look a decent bet tho as they ar ein superb form and newcastle arent ...

everton have had a tough run of games (utd liverpool arsenal villa etc) and have come out with flying colours..Jo looks a useful addition even if briefly... newcastle struggle and pull out the occasional decent win but have lloked bereft of ideas and are missing given too... could be a long day for them

bet > everton
odds > 8/5 (various)
stake > £200


bank > £3793.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sat Feb 28, 2009 12:49 pm

top up £100
bank > £3893.55

everton managed to only draw so need to stop the rot!

ok.. this wk... no value in any of the obvious bets... not much value in any of AH odds either..think boro may annoy liverpool..poss a draw... cant se emuch else happening...

chelsea wigan shoul dbe a home win despite chelsea's hoem form.. wigan could hold them..but chelsea should be dominanat on corners so taking the AH option of -3.5 for chelsea..odds are 7/8 which is tempting

bet > chelsea -3.5 AH corners
odds > 7/8
stake > £250


bank > £3643.55

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Postby gecko6 » Sun Mar 01, 2009 9:40 am

should have again gone with the longer odds option (boro) but anyway..

chelsea v wigan corners was 12-8 so chelsea just scraped that on the AH

return > £468.75

bank now > £4112.30


:D

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