gecko6 OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread...

gecko6
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Postby gecko6 » Sun May 17, 2009 11:01 am

will go with the above

bet > chelsea HT/FT
odds > 10/11 (extrabet)
stake > £280


bank > £5200

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Postby gecko6 » Sun May 17, 2009 5:29 pm

chelsea done the biz so that returns £534.55

bank now > £5734.55

:D

nice profit... ticking over to end of season and then we will have beaten the bookies :win:

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Postby gecko6 » Sun May 24, 2009 12:47 pm

final wk so last pick...

boro just have to do something and sooften in these sort of games teams find some form aor get a result.. no point in looking ta form or boro's awful record..they simply need a result

i think the AH market is attractive.. boro +0, +0.5 is shade over evens

a draw gets half a win and half push - cant really see them losingunless they give up the ghost completely

topup > £100
bank > £5834.55
bet > boro +0.25 AH
odds > 41/40 (bet365)
stake > £334.55
closing bank > £5500

gecko6
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Postby gecko6 » Sun May 24, 2009 6:50 pm

boro really are poor..ho hum... very surprised that none of the bottom teams won... hull newc boro sunderland all lost..amazing really as usually one of the relly teams finds a win...

anyway

will do the official update

but

bank ended at £5,500 from £4,000 in topups...

so.. a profit of £1500 or 37.5%

not bad... forgot a lot of wks and only had 3 games to pick from.. and did some hasty bets

but the general idea of low stakes and sensible odds...ie value.. and limiting it to 1 per wk... has worked and the bookies have been beaten

think i can do better with more time and effort but nonetheless pleasing to make a profit

:wink:

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Postby gecko6 » Mon May 25, 2009 12:24 pm

my stats >

wks 40 >

average stake > £216.20
average return > £253.70
average profit > £37.50
average odds > 2.14
ROI > 17.3%
profit > 37.5%
bets > 20 won, 19 lost, 1 push

bets >

12X > 16 (9 win 7 loss)
AH > 14 (6 win 7 loss 1 push)
2.5 goals > 3 (3 loss)
corners > 3 (3 win)
AGS > 2 (1 win 1 loss)
HT or HTFT > 2 (1 win 1 loss)

average stake on losing bets > £183.12
average stake on winning bets > £248.44

> thus, I was about break-even on winning bets but becasue stake was higher on those I returned a relatively much bigger profit - stakes are raised for better value bets which is good



:win:

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