Krells Horseracing Ratings

Krellshand
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Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:31 am

Hey there!

Here you can find my ratings for horseracing in the UK and Ireland.
I am working on updating and evolving them, and they are far from "finishes" - if such a thing will ever exist.

Some test runs were quite interesting - there were some big winners, but also quite some strange choices.
The ratings, as of August 2022, are likely to pick quite a lot of outsiders on the races.

I will update this post with any changes I do to the ratings.

How to use the ratings:
These ratings are not for "blind baking"!
Right now, they estimate which horse will most likely win the race statisticly regarding weight, rating and odds. It takes the last ~12 years and comparable races like the one it rates to determine the rating.
The highest rating is most likely to win the race, but the numbers are not (yet) comparable between the races. And the rating throw some oddballs quite often - so be warned.
But I thought - why not take you all with me on this journey and develop the ratings further "in public"

How can you support the ratings?
Right now - you can't :lol:
I don`t have a patreon page or a website, this might or might not come in the futre.
But you could send me old Warhammer Minis if you don't need them.... not that it would directly help the ratings... :D
Enough joking around - any constructive criticism and help is highly appreciated.

Roadmap:
Further ratings
Finetuning
Ratings for the USA

About me:
I am a Punter from Germany and I am betting on horses for quite some time now... 15 years+?
I won some betting competitions in Germany, was hired as a private betting tipster/service, but never gambled high on the bets myself and went more on the statistics/datamining side of horse racing in the last 5 or so years. It was on and off, but 2022 it made quite a jump. This is heavily inspired by some blogs I followed years ago here on this site.

So, I hope you enjoy the ratings. :win:
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:31 am

*reserved*
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:32 am

*reserved*
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:37 am

Ratings for the 16.08.2022

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Hope this works
Copying the whole table here was a mess. Well, first try :D
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Wed Aug 17, 2022 8:42 am

So, first day - not so good.
Well the good news is: Only 3 races were compelete misses with not even a place in the frist 3. 10 winners were in the first 3, but only 2 top rated horses have won. The rating predicted 22 placed horses, which is not bad at all.

Sorted after the highest Odds rating would have resulted in a few more top rated winners, so I will have to see.

Here are the ratings for today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Good Luck!

+edit+ - Looking through the rating - why has Alkhal in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes a higher Wieght rating than the rest - when the weight is eqaul? Have to dive into the code to see whats going on there :?
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:25 am

The 17th was..... not bad at all.

Kempton was abandoned, so no bets there. But we had some nice firts rated winners in Wolverhampton (One Step Beyond 11.42 BSP, Glen Cove 8,6 BSP) and some more, smaller first rated winners.
Overall in the top 3 rated we had 15 winners an 27 placed from 36 races, as said - not bad at all for very rough calculations.
It was (and is) fairly obvious that this approach is not the best for Group races, as the ratings as of yet do not take recent form or cross form into consideration - so it does not know just how good Baaeed is :P

So, here are the Ratings for the 18.08.2022:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:26 am

The 17th was..... not bad at all.

Kempton was abandoned, so no bets there. But we had some nice firts rated winners in Wolverhampton (One Step Beyond 11.42 BSP, Glen Cove 8,6 BSP) and some more, smaller first rated winners.
Overall in the top 3 rated we had 15 winners an 27 placed from 36 races, as said - not bad at all for very rough calculations.
It was (and is) fairly obvious that this approach is not the best for Group races, as the ratings as of yet do not take recent form or cross form into consideration - so it does not know just how good Baaeed is :P

So, here are the Ratings for the 18.08.2022:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:46 am

Yesterday, Killarney and Fontwell were kind of a bust. Maybe it is the quality of the races there (big low level fields) or just no luck - I may have to watch this. But maybe bust is too hard a word - I mean, the ratings had 2 winners (not counting Hell Red) and 4 places in the top 3 in Fontwell, and 6 places and 2 winners in Killarney.
On the other hand, Chepstow and Stradford were unreal. 5 Winners in Stradford, 7 places, including one Trifect in correct order. Chepstow: 5 Winners and 5 Places, one reverse Trifecta. I think the weight is getting too much, weill "weight" in the ratings right now.

Overall: 19 winners, 29 Places in the races yesterday, some quite high as in their 20s. Now I am ready to be busted today....


Changelog: Added Jockey and Trainer ratings to the finalrating.

As always - ignore the Group (1) Races - the Ratings are not yet configured to handle them

The Ratings: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:00 am

Ratings for the 20th are up.

Yesterday was really good again. We had some nice, high priced winners under the top 3, up to 22/1 and higher. It is nice to see that for this weeks the ratings were able to pick out outsiders that at least take a place consistently. Really, really happy so far.

Yesterday we had 29 winners under the top 3 rated, and 37 places - Not bad at all. 66 horses under the top 3, and 2 Trifecta again.

Lets see how it performs on a Saturday. :D

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Sun Aug 21, 2022 8:39 am

New ratings up :cool:
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:48 am

Yeah, somehow the ratings from this morning did not udpate - well, I uploaded them again: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing


Yesterday was not as good as before - but that was kind of expected on a Saturday :hope:
Still - 25 Winners, but a lot of favorites, so negative ROI - 160 bets 109 points return (BSP is much closer to breaking even) - but there are a lot of places and the raings still pick out high proced outsiders that run very well - Marie's Diamond and Finest Sound in the first York Race for example.

Changelog: I tuned down the weight of the jockey and trainer ratings just a bit.
The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

Krellshand
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Re: Krells Horseracing Ratings

Postby Krellshand » Mon Aug 22, 2022 7:04 am

The Ratings (horse racing ratings) (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70717&p=1787537#p1787537):

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